Very Early Mid-Term Results: the Sequel

​Yesterday, when writing about how incredibly well Democrats have been doing in local state Special Elections – flipping two seats in very Red districts, and cutting some margins by 25-30 points, I wrote:

“That’s still not inherently meaningful.  But MAGOP candidates ignore the results at their own peril.  Especially since Trump did not surround himself with qualified support, has dementia, and things will only get worse for him.”

Hours after posting that, I read about the two Special Elections in Florida coming next Tuesday on April 1, both for national races for the U.S. House.  The details of which cried out for this follow-up.  All the more so because, with the makeup of the House so tight, if Democrats can flip both MAGOP seats, while they won’t change control of the House, but it will move the MAGOP margin to only one.

(Sort of.  That’s because two House Democrats passed away this month, so those seats require Special Elections later this year.  But given that both are in overwhelming Democratic districts, it’s hard to imagine that they won’t win.)

By the way, when stating how close the House could be, that’s not hyperbole.  It is so close that I actually had to rewrite this article, which addressed the possibility of Democrats retaking control of the House this year.  After finishing the piece, though, the story broke that Trump withdrew his nomination of Congresswoman Elise Stefanik to be UN Ambassador.  Without waiting to know the results of Tuesday’s Special Elections, MAGOPs saw they couldn’t even risk losing Stefanik’s seat in New York – because that could mean losing control of the House!

As notable as this all is, it’s not the important point.  I’ll get to that in a moment.  This is just the background for perspective.

To be very clear, it’s not likely that Democrats will win either of the very-Red Special elections on April 1, let alone both.  But after what we’ve seen in all five of the statehouse Special Elections, I don’t think winning one, but even both, is improbable.  More to the point, separate from who wins in deeply Red districts, it’s what their numbers show for the Mid-Term Election next year that is significant.  That’s because most of the MAGOP members of Congress are not in “deeply Red” districts, just fairly safe ones or close Purple districts.  And so even if MAGOPs hold both seats next Tuesday, the razor-thin margin of the House remains razor thin.  Flipping just one of these Special Elections next week, let alone two, makes MAGOPs’ razor-thin margin microscopic.  And put the MAGOP majority not only in dire jeopardy for the Mid-Terms, but on life support.

(The same holds true for the Senate, where many more MAGOPs will be running for re-election next year, though that’s a bigger hurdle.)

Further, MAGOPs are all the more at risk during the Mid-Terms because Trump won’t be on the ballot, where his name draws more MAGOPs to the polls. Further, as horrible as Trump’s messes are during his honeymoon period, it seems likely that conditions will be worse next year since he has not surrounded himself with competent experts to help him fix things, but rather Yes Men, appointed only to kowtow to their cult leader.  Witness just this week alone:  the national security debacle, Health & Human Services cutting 20,000 jobs and pulling funding to states during a measles outbreak, and Trump announcing a 25% tariff on imported car parts – never mind the specter of dismantling Social Security and so much more, all led by someone without a clue how to manage any of this who has early dementia which is degenerative.

And that brings us to the important part.

I’ve written previously about these two upcoming Special Elections, but I didn’t have any numbers to go by.  But now I do, for one of them -- the Florida 6th.

In the 2024 general election, the congressional race in the Florida 6 district was won by MAGOPs by a massive 33 points.  That's how Red it is.  In the most-recent polling for next Tuesday’s Special Election, though, the MAGOP candidate Randy Fine is ahead of his Democratic opponent Josh Weill by… (are you ready?) four points.  Yes, only four points.  48-44%.  Within the margin of error (which is +/- 4.9).

Worse for MAGOPs, not just in this very-Red district but nationally, is that the poll shows Independent voters there – on whom most elections not in incredibly safe districts rely – are heavily supporting Democrat Weil by 23 points, 57-34%.

But the more detailed numbers about this race are harrowing for MAGOPs.  Because they’re not just from polling, but actual votes. 

Early voting has started in Florida.  And for those who have already voted (either by mail-in or in person), the survey shows Democrat Weil leads by 51% to 43%.  Now, yes, that’s just a small percentage of the final vote – but it’s not as “small” as you would think.  Indeed, 38% of likely voters have already voted.

And yes, of course, that still leaves almost two-thirds of the vote to go, most of whom are most-certainly MAGOPs.  So, making up the difference is certainly very possible, if not probable.  But – most of those remaining voters will have to vote in person on Election Day.  And that always relies on them actually doing so.  The weather can affect day-of voting, as does other plans that crop up and (importantly) just basic inertia, especially if there’s a feeling the race is lost.

And the problem for MAGOPs is greater than thus just this.  Because energizing voters and “get out the vote” efforts are critical.  And a lot of that takes money.  And right now, Democrat Weill has $1.3 million remaining in cash-on-hand to spend on TV ads and such things.  In contrast, MAGOP Fine has only $93,000.  And no, that was not a typo.

None of this means that MAGOP Fine won’t win in a profoundly Red district that Trump won by 30 points.  Nor that MAGOPs will lose in the other two races.  It just means that what is “unlikely” is not even close to improbable.

And means, too, that MAGOP candidates ignore the results at their own peril.

(I must throw in a meaningless, but fun side note:  The congressman who represented this Florida 6 district, but left his seat open to join the Trump administration is – Michael Waltz.  Yes, the very same Michael Waltz who accidentally invited journalist Jeffrey Goldberg into the group text chat that’s become a national defense disaster!  Michael Waltz:  the gift that keeps on giving.)

Back to the risks that MAGOPs face.  There are two possibilities here:  one, that they do ignore the results which puts them at great peril, or two, they don’t ignore the results and break from Trump, as they try desperately to somehow distance themselves from him.

I don’t know what will happen.  I only know that acting with unbridled hubris based solely on a phantasmagoric belief you've convinced yourself is unsupported reality is never a good foundation to start from.

And no, I haven't lost the irony of the Special Elections being held on April Fools Day...