Too Bleak or Not Too Bleak, That is the Question

Last week, a reader here, Nikon1, replied to the videos I posted of Pete Buttigieg by noting how unfortunate it was that someone so smart and eloquent didn’t have a future in high government national office.

I responded that I wasn’t as sure Buttigieg couldn't get elected to national office. I agreed that it would be an uphill battle, but then it is for everyone. However, I said that I could see him getting elected as a senator or governor in Indiana -- adding that the biggest hurdle for Buttigieg in such races (should he undertake them) is that Indiana leans conservative, though not deep red.  I wasn’t predicting any of that at all, but wasn’t dismissing it outright for whatever his future held.

I got a thoughtful response back that was nonetheless pretty bleak about the state of the country, He began by writing that “While I salute your optimism that there are enough smart people who recognize the innate talent and intelligence that Pete Bugttigieg would bring to a National Office…”, and then went into a long, pointed description of the Trump years and how the Big Lie has transformed the Republican base and overall party, pushing for an autocratic government.  He closed by saying –

“I can only hope your optimism wins over my extreme pessimism. But I cannot see a positive outcome for our country with so many citizens believing trump, the gop and the likes of FAUX News, Bannon and the rest of the far-right loudmouths.”

I was in the middle of preparing a long reply, when I realized it would be better to dive into here, rather than in the User Comments section.

Just to clarify, I wrote about Trump being fascist almost five years ago.  And went into detail why I meant that quite literally.  And since that time, almost whenever I wrote about the latest Trump outrage, I repeatedly said that the point of it all was not about Trump but the Republican Party who enabled him.  And how the GOP in turn has become fascist. And explained in even great detail.

So, I don't think most of what I write here can be painted as pie-in-the-sky sunshine optimistic.  Nor do I think that the absence of pessimism is optimism.  I try to make my observations as objective and realistic as I can.  At times, those can see a positive, hopeful side (some reaching optimism, some sticking at the just "hopeful" level) -- and at times those positive views have actually been born out.  Further, sometimes I’ve been blisteringly angry and pessimistic about the latest Republican outrages.  And sometimes I'm wrong about whatever position I write about on either side.  And sometimes right.

But I do agree with Nikon1 when he says that his view is not just pessimistic, but "extreme pessimism."  Bordering on desolate, and that's a separate matter from mere pessimism, because I think when it reaches "extreme" that potentially leads to paralysis and inaction.  Which doesn’t mean that what's feared won’t be the end result.  It may be.  But, again, just because someone is extremely pessimistic doesn’t make any other position optimistic.  There are indeed horrific horizons at the nearby landscape.  I see them and understand them and accept them as very real.

But that’s not all I see.  For starters, I recognize that seven million more people voted for Joe Biden than Trump.  And almost three million more voted for Hillary Clinton than Trump.  And though that’s not how we elect a president – nor how we elect a Senate and House, it does provide a very different horizon in the other direction of the landscape.

(To be fair to Nikon1, he may have been using "extreme pessimism" in an exaggerated way, to emphasize his point.  Or perhaps he is, in fact, extremely pessimistic.  But that's actually beside the point, since what I'm referencing here is not his own views, which are completely valid to him, but a more general look at my own perspective of things on optimism, pessimism and all counties in between.)

It’s also worth noting that in writing about Pete Buttigieg, who was the start of all this ruminating, I wasn’t throwing rose petals in front of his path dancing into the White House.  I merely pointed out that, as someone who had been elected mayor of South Bend, I could see him having a base of support in his home state and conceivably getting elected to the Senate or as governor.  And wasn’t even predicting that.  But just saw it as possible –while recognizing that the state is more conservative than not, which would be a hurdle.  But to put that in perspective, and not leave it floating as a whim, the current Republican governor of Indiana Eric Holcomb won with only 51% of the vote.  And in the most recent U.S. Senate election there, Republican Mike Braun won, but also with just 51%.  And while the other senator from the state, Todd Young, is also a Republican, he won his last race with only 52%. Even though that’s a clean GOP sweep, those are hardly landslide mandates.  So, my comment that Pete Buttigieg, who has been building his public national profile as Secretary of Transportation, could possibly win statewide election in his home state hardly seems an outlandish observation.

But back to the overall landscape.

As I’ve been writing for years, today’s Republican Party is literally fascist, by every book definition of the term.  And the country is very divided, it’s not like the GOP is a minority wing.  So, the prospects of Republicans winning majorities in the House, Senate and upcoming the presidency are very real and horrifying.  But “very real and horrifying” are the warning signs, and the impetus to fight back hard, not the end marker referenced with a white flag.  Especially when Democrats hold the White House (by seven million votes), the House and control of the Senate.  None of those are even remotely guarantors and predictive of the future, but meant as the foundation we’re starting from, whatever the mid-term results.

If I do have a substantive pessimistic view of anything (and I do on several things), the most significant is not about the electorate, but about how abusive state election laws and officials in red state have ginned elections there.  While I don’t believe that just because a state official can do something reprehensible they will do that, I certainly don’t even remotely discount the very real possibility that in today’s fascist GOP they would.  I just also don’t ignore that if a state official overturns election results that the other party won, it holds risks for that official – and the public reaction.

I'm also pessimistic about the Republican Party.  Once upon a time, I didn't agree with most of their positions, but did on a few and always knew that they were operating on the same foundation of accepting facts and supporting democracy.  No more.  There is a disbelief in science, election results, history and far too much of reality.  There is a trust in lunatic conspiracy theories pushed by literally anonymous sources.  And even elected Republican officials say with their outdoor voice that the United States is not a Democracy, many still supporting the leader of Russia, one of America's two greatest adversaries.  And so the GOP will continue for the foreseeable future to elect conspiratorialists pledged to block fair elections, some of them bordering on lunatics -- I don't say this as hyperbole.  In Pennsylvania, the Philadelphia Inquirerer, one of the major newspapers in the country, wrote an op-ed titled, "We wanted to endorse in the Republican primaries this year.  We can't."  They went on the explain in great detail why not, and made the damning point, "How do you find points of agreement when you can’t reach common ground on facts so basic that they could be used in a field sobriety test?"

What's uncertain is how what is foundational in today's Republican Party will play in a general election.  To look at its descent into fascism and true nutjobs doesn't mean that the general public will be as supportive.  They may be -- that's the concern -- but only about 30% of the country is registered Republican, and if the party goes too far off the ledge, the GOP could lose more than enough of the center.  In fact, that's a worry of the Republican Party itself -- as the far-far-far right Kathy Barnette has unexpectedly surged, the party has gotten worried that she should drag down the entire ticket.  The two leading candidates are so concerned they've agreed not to attack one another, Fox "News" has began to be critical of her, as well.  And in the state's governor race, party officials are so worried about the very far-right Doug Mastriano who is caught up in the "Stop the Steal" campaign that one of the major candidates dropped out of the race and endorsed her main opponent  so as not to split the vote against Mastriano, who they fear could be disastrous for the party in a general election.

Maybe these deeply far-right conspiratorialists will be disastrous for the GOP with the general public, maybe they won't be.  But even Republican officials are at least concerned.  That's not a reason to be optimistic.  But it's not a reason to look at these fascist candidates and be pessimistic.  Except about the GOP itself.

It's one thing to look at the future, be sickened by the possible future, and be pessimistic that that is what will happen.  It’s another to look at it and think that it very well could happen – or might, or won’t.  Or…anything in between, who knows??

It would also be foolhardy to look at the future and be rose-colored optimistic that That Will Never Happen Here Because This is America.

What I do know is that politics can change like the wind.  And the mid-terms are six months off, which is a lifetime.  And the presidential election is 2-1/2 years off, an eternity.

I know full-well that Republicans are favored to take control of the House and Senate.  And the presidency looms on the horizon.  But I know, too, that Democrats still have the White House.  And anything draconian Republicans try to pass out of hubris will not only be vetoed, but will be used against them in 2024 as “This is who the Republican Party showed you they are.”

And what I know too is that the overturning of the abortion law has changed the dynamic of the mid-terms.  Whether it changes it enough to impact the results, I have no idea.  And I know that the public hearings of the Jan. 6 House Select Committee will change the dynamic of the mid-terms, as well.  And whether that changes results at all, I have no idea about that either.  But the two together, showing starkly who the GOP is and what they want to do, might have a sum greater than the parts – or not. 

I am not optimistic about the future.  But I’m not pessimistic.  I’ve very wary, recognizing the brutality that is pushing against democracy, and also seeing the openings that allow for strongly pushing back.

I also have long believed that it’s easy to be pessimistic.  You can’t lose.  Either your worst fears come true, and you can say “See!  I told you so!” and be happy about having been right – or your worst fears don’t happen, and you are even more happy you were wrong.

What I say is that I live in the real world – but have a vacation home in the Land of Hope.