To Run or Not to Run, That is the Question

​A long while back, I made a guess that Trump would not run for re-election and gave several detailed reasons why I thought that.  I stand by the reasons, and still think the guess was a good one.

But I’m flexible, and think something new has come up which makes me consider that what I once thought – which was valid at the time – may not be valid now.  And so I’m sliding over to the side that says it seems like Trump will run. 

As I said, the reasons I thought he wouldn’t run were valid when I wrote it all.  Including that I thought investigations would be so damning to Trump that he wouldn’t be able to consider a campaign.  But what has changed is the result of those damning investigations.

What I think now is that the evidence against Trump – already – is so damaging to him and puts him at such risk of indictment that it seems likely that he will run again to avoid prosecution.  It’s not even a case of him thinking that if he wins he can’t be prosecuted.  But even before getting that far – thinking instead if he simply runs for president it would be too difficult for the Department of Justice to indict a former president who is a candidate for being elected again.

And it’s not unreasonable for him to think that:  if someone announces their candidacy to run for president, would the DOJ want to indict that person?  I don’t know – especially if that person is a former president.  Given, too, how difficult it clearly is to indict a former president who is now merely a private citizen, if you throw into this mix that that person is also now a candidate for president, the cries of unfair politization by the candidate and his supporters would be echoing off the walls.  And I’m inclined to think he wouldn’t be indicted, as long as he was running. 

There are two caveats for Trump likely expecting he wouldn’t be prosecuted.  The first is that the DOJ could still indict him if he merely announces and is still a private citizen.  As I said, my guess is that they wouldn’t, but that’s hardly a sure thing.

The second looms larger.  And it’s that I don’t think the State of Georgia would hesitate indicting him if they feel they have the evidence, whether or not he says he’s running again.

But for all the reasons that made sense when I first made my guess (reasons that still make sense), I think that now Trump is so concerned by the Select Committee investigation and what crimes they are revealing publicly, as well as what the DOJ might do, that to protect himself as much as possible from indictment, it is more likely than not he will announce his candidacy to run again.

But my God, what a reason to run for president.  Moreover, what a party if they nominate him again.  

But then, that he’s even a viable candidate for president, let alone for anything, other than Most Distrusted Prisoner, is shameful enough.