The Value of Perspective

We'll keep this fairly short, since I have a much longer (much...) article in preparation that deals with this and many more related points in an upcoming article.

But in part --

MSNBC aired a special on Friday where their anchors held a Town Hall in New York.  I recorded it, though just skimmed through.  It was worth skimming though if only for a story that Chris Hayes told.

Hayes started by pointing out huge problems ahead with Trump and MAGOPs, but also huge positives for those in opposition.  And among the latter, he noted how unpopular Trump was, with only 43% approval -- and with significantly lower approval for his handling of specific issues. And he added that some polls have Trump's general approval even lower, at just 37-38%.  Hayes then commented, "I know many of you are wondering why it's not 10-20%," which got a lot of nods and sardonic laughs .

And that's what brought up his piece of history.

Hayes explained that one of the greatest landslides in presidential history came in the 1932 election between Franklin Roosevelt and Herbert Hoover.  With the Depression raging, FDR won 42 states to Hoover's only six, and received 472 Electoral votes to just 59 for Hoover.  And for all that, Hayes went on, in the midst of the Great Depression and this massive landslide -- "Herbert Hoover still got 40% of the vote."  

(For accuracy sake, that's rounded up.  Hoover got 39.6%.)

His point being that there is a base below which it's incredibly difficult for any presidential candidate to go below, and Trump's approval -- only nine months into his term -- ranging between 37% and 43%, while not in the middle of the Great Depression, is truly terrible.  And far worse than most people think.  

This all relates to a comment I made to a friend on Sunday.  I said that motivation to vote is critical for elections.  Especially Mid-Term elections, when fewer people are motivated to vote.  And particularly important in this coming Mid-Terms because of something that rarely gets mentioned:  that a large part of the MAGOP base avoids politics and only comes out to vote when their cult leader Trump is on the ballot -- and Trump will not be on the ballot next year.  I said that I sense Democrats are massively motivated to vote in 2026...and that I didn't have the feeling that MAGOPs are nearly as much.

Yesterday, CNN released a poll, which included a question on voter motivation.  For the MAGOP, "highly motivated" was 46%.  And for Democrats -- 67%!!

Having support is important -- as is not having supports.  But whatever your level of support is, getting people to actually vote is something else entirely.

In the end, poll numbers are one thing to watch.  But they don't exist in a vacuum. And perspective is not only essential, but arguably what matters more in interpreting them.