The Theory of One Thing

I have a theory.  Unlike Stephen Hawking, mine doesn't cover everything.  It's much more limited.  But still, I think it's worth offering.  We'll get to that in a bit. For now, though, we first have to clear away the underbrush that is cluttering the view and making it all the more difficult to trudge through each day.

Sometimes -- and in these days of Trump World, "sometimes" is close to being defined as "every day" -- it's hard to know which of the many banner headline stories is the one worth writing about.  Yesterday, for instance, there were just too many, and so I gave up and did another of my "You Are There" articles, writing about them all, but in brief.

And then there's today?  Seriously, what does one write about?

There was Trump telling people in North Carolina that they should commit a federal crime and vote twice in the presidential election-- by mail and in person -- in order to hopefully (from his perspective) show how insecure voting by mail is.  And also, even more to the point, I think, to throw the election into as much disorder as possible and muddy the results he clearly believes he risks losing.  By the way, just encouraging people to break the law in voting in a North Carolina election is breaking state election laws.  Of course, one would think that if Trump felt so strong about this crackerjack, illegal scenario, he should try it himself and encourage his family and staff to do so.

There's also the story of Maine having a massive outbreak of the coronavirus when a church held a wedding ceremony indoors and without any protections.  And the pastor is planning to hold an indoor service this weekend with full choir, despite the hundreds of infections in the area as a result of that earlier ceremony, which has lead to deaths, as well.  All because Trump and Republicans at the RNC convention pushed the company falsehood that Democrats want churches closed because they're against freedom.  This raises two primary questions.  The near-criminal pastor aside -- what on earth is going through the heads of his parishioners who plan to attend??  And also, if Trump and especially Don Jr. who railed about this in his RNC speech, feel so strongly about what they say, why don't they live up to their words and attend that church service in Maine?

And there's the story about the Department of Homeland Security withholding a warning that Russians are trying to push the fake story that Joe Biden is mentally unfit for office.  A campaign line, of course, that we've already seen Trump and other Republicans use.  (For those who were uncertain, this is a fine example of what the Russian secret intelligence term, "useful idiot" is.)

And the story of Attorney General William Barr -- who more and more seems to be crafting his job after multiple viewings of The Godfather studying the character 'Tom Hagen,' as the consigliere to 'Vito Corleone -- explaining that the police shooting Jacob Blake in the back seven times while holding on to him may have been justified because the shooting victim, now paralyzed, was armed.  And even after host Wolf Blitzer fortunately contradicted by by noting that this was not true, that Blake was not armed, Barr didn't backtrack on his assertion.  And this doesn't even take into consideration of why on earth the U.S. Attorney General was giving his opinion on the defense of an open legal situation in a state.  

By the way, Barr also made the claim of fraud in voting by mail, despite providing no evidence to back up his assertion.  Adding that he didn't know if was legal to vote twice in some states, because he didn't know the law in every state.  Again, this is the Attorney General of the United States.  What's weird is that he doesn't seem to realize that this makes him look like a total idiot. Or doesn't care that it does.  But hey, I just throw that in as a bonus.  Because, sometimes you need a light chaser to go along with the banquet.

And...and...and...and, yes, of course, there's more.  And again, to be clear, these stories are all from today alone and all of them could be headline stories on there own.

And in the meantime, we're now at 189,964 deaths from the coronavirus, so far.  That we know of.

(By the way, one of these now includes the all-time great Hall of Fame pitcher Tom Seaver, who died last night of COVID-19 at the age of 75.  His death is no more or less important than the others, but it's certainly more newsworthy.  And I suspect Trump will tweet some comment about it, being from New York where Seaver pitched most of his career.  And I'm sure he will miss the tragic irony that if he had actively worked to limit coronavirus infections from the first, Tom Seaver would likely still be alive.)

All of which lead me to a theory I do want to write about a bit more in detail, though it doesn't need much.  And I was planning to do so even before hearing of Tom Seaver's death.

Trump has added a new adviser to his coronavirus task force, Dr. Scott Atlas,  a neuroradiologist and fellow at Stanford’s conservative Hoover Institution.  His field, it should be noted, has absolutely nothing to do with infectious diseases, and he has no experience in the area.  Which by this point in the Trump administration should come as no surprise

Dr. Atlas has been a proponent of herd immunity, despite going on TV the other day and angrily denouncing the hoax claims that he has done so -- which, in fact, he has done.  Herd immunity, which has been tried in Sweden with awful results, is based on the concept of letting as many people get infected as possible, until the "herd" is saturated, and the virus dies out.  Along with a good part of the population.  By most medical standards, for herd immunity to work (which is unproven and uncertain to most experts), it requires 65% of the population to become infected, which would be about 210 million Americans.  And if you use "just" a 1% death rate, that means about 2.1 million Americans would die.

There is some belief that the Trump administration is already sort of, kind of taking early steps to surreptitiously push this.  Witness their relentless speeches at their convention ranting about Democrats not wanting to open  churches which is against religion and freedom (bringing this back around to the first story above...) and Trump's ongoing push to open all business and get all schools open and have colleges play football.

I don't know if these other examples are the case of small steps towards herd immunity, or just coincidence, related to Trump wanting to wish the cornavirus away like a "miracle."  But bringing Dr. Atlas on board and current Trump statements about "herd" infections, along with new CDC statements for less testing are another matter..

And that's where my theory comes in.  Mind you, I have zero idea if this has any basis in reality.  I don’t tend to overthink the reasons Trump does what he does, because I don’t think he’s the Master Strategist some do, that he doesn't make detailed plans.  I think he just reacts  to save his well-being, somewhat like a single-cell amoeba or bacteria, and flies by the seat of his ignorant parts.  But I do think, at the very least, it relates to the irrational thinking and fear of losing the election bouncing around in his head.  In that thinking, Trump believes that the spread of the coronavirus is his biggest impediment to being re-elected.  (As it well-may be, though there's so much else to compete with it.)  That's why he keeps downplaying the pandemic and wants businesses open and holds mass rallies without social distancing or face masks required.  

But that seems to be a losing battle, since clearly the pandemic is very real, and that COVID-19 is spreading, and that there are 6,290,737 infections and 189,964 dead, so far, as around 1,000 Americans are dying every day -- as the warm weather ends and we move in the cooler days start that are more conducive to a virus -- and medical experts predict we could have 225,000 dead by election day at a minimum.

So, my theory -- based on nothing by observation of Trump and pure guessing -- is that Trump has realized that the number of infections and deaths is going to be so high that he might as well "embrace" that and go the other direction.  Accept herd immunity as a policy and try to claim that high deaths was the whole point all along (never mind the reality that it contradicts all previous efforts, but why worry about reality at this point...).  Let the number go as high as it can, and whatever it ends up with by the election, try to say that it's the plan.  Indeed, the higher the better.  And even if not stated as a "policy" per se, the assertion can be made that a high number of deaths is actually a Good Thing.  (Sweden's experience and the Black Plague aside.)

I'm not saying this is a smart idea or that it will work with the public -- it isn't (it's ghoulish) and won't.  Most people are against dying.  Most people are against hundreds of thousands of Americans dying.  Most Americans know that Trump has been trying to claim for six months that the coronavirus is not serious and will just go away, and it's safe to gather and go to work.  (Yes, his cult would believe it, but they're voting for him anyway.  I'm talking about the 70-75% of other Americans not ready yet for the Raputure.)  Trump trying to say, now, all of a sudden, that high deaths is either the plan or ultimately good just won't fly.  Nonetheless, I wouldn't be surprised if Trump and his team think it's their only hope to counter growing infections and deaths.  Because trying to say this is just like the flu, it'll go away like a miracle, and we're doing a great job keeping the number low is an absolute guarantee of a campaign disaster.

Not to mention a public one, as well.

Just to clarify --this is an incredibly stupid policy.  But a) Trump may see it as at least a better alternative than watching the numbers go up and hurting him.  If other people get infected or die, we know that he doesn’t care.  b)  From all he's said up to this point, he appears convinced that most people will only get infected and not die, so there’s no downside.  And c) as we know, he plays solely to his base, so if they’re convinced by Trump that herd immunity is a good thing, that’s all that matters to him.

And as I said, I don’t think he makes long-range plans.  But this isn’t a long-range plan.  This is just – “I’m in trouble by the rising numbers.  So, let’s let just say that that’s our policy".  There’s not much long-range planning in that.

Honestly, of course, I have no idea.  It's just a personal theory.  Merely a guess.  It might be totally wrong.  But at the very least, I think it fits with Trump "thinking," even if it's all just a coincidence.

But whatever happens, Republicans will go along with it.  Because -- and it can't be said too often -- this is not about Trump, we know who he is.  This is about the elected members of the Republican Party who enable him, would go along with hundreds of thousands of Americans dying, have blood dripping all over their hands, and are complicit.