The Strong, Silent Type

In my article the other day about Trump’s terrible Friday, I touch on something, but I think it’s not only much more important than “touching on,” but may be among the most important things in the election -- and generally overlooked, at least compared to how critical it is.  So, I thought I’d dive back into it here more explicitly.

We always hear the “cold overall numbers” – like that Trump’s support on the economy is 32% or his approval is 36% -- but as valuable as that information is, I always try to find polls that break down these general results into more detailed “strongly approve/strongly disapprove” and just “approve/disapprove.”  That’s because “Strongly” is what gets people to vote without needing ads or listening to podcasts or campaign teams knocking on doors.  It’s the “I will vote if I have to crawl on glass” contingents.  And it’s most important during a Mid-Term Election when the number of people who vote is far less than in a presidential year. 

General “Approve/disapprove” numbers in a poll are just personal reactions, not that you’re going to go out and vote, especially in a Mid-Term.  You may “support” Trump in a poll, but are so depressed by what he and his party are doing, because you’re pummeled by the economy and price of gas and the war and Epstein files and more that you just don’t have it in you to vote.  "Strongly" numbers, though, are sort of like “likely voters” -- but on steroids.  You might be a “likely” voter, but “likely” isn’t definite.  When it comes time to vote, you likely will – but that “I’m so depressed by my party” gene might kick in.  Or it's raining, or you have a conflict that day, or the lines are long, or... But if you strongly approve or strongly disapprove, that’s emotional, that’s what drives a person and will get you to the polls, that’s “I will walk on glass to vote” territory.  Moreover, a “strongly” number – whether for approve or disapprove – is unlikely to go down.  It’s a pretty much “my mind is made up” number.  Especially when close to an election.  So, it’s a number a party can rely on.

In my Monday article, I do mention one poll with “strongly” numbers that are damning for Trump and the party -- but it’s only for one specific issue (an important one, to be sure, his war in Iran), rather than overall.  Still, though, it was problematic for MAGOPs, showing that Americans strongly disapprove of Trump’s war in Iran by 54% compared to just 19% who strongly approve, a 3-to-1 margin.  in However, I later saw another poll, and it was even worse for MAGOPs, which is saying a lot, since that poll referenced in the article is terrible for them.  But this is worse because it was a poll on overall approval.

It was the new NBC poll which showed only a 37% approval for Trump – which is very bad, though these days it’s at the high end of Trump’s approval, where one poll a couple of weeks ago has him as low as 33%.  (In fact, after writing this, AP just came out with a new poll, and Trump's approval there was 33%.)  Not surprisingly, this “37%” approval number is what got all the media attention.  But then, looking deeper, I saw a breakdown of the “strongly” results in the same poll.  And it was:

Strongly approve – 13%

Strongly disapprove – 50% 

Yipes, that it horrific for MAGOPs.  And it’s just months before a Mid-Term election.  But this is even worse for Trump and the MAGO.  Let me explain.  This paltry 13% who say they strongly support Trump are most likely his most devout, cult-like base.  And as history has shown, they’re people who don’t care about politics and only come out to vote for Trump.    The thing is, though, Trump is not on the ballot in the Mid-Terms.  And so, the even bigger problem for Trump and MAGOP candidates is that the “strongly approve” people a party counts on to vote… may not come out to vote since Trump is not on the ballot!  How much will that cut down on MAGOP votes???  And (to be very conservative) even if it’s just a mere 2% who stay home, that’s 2% of your most loyal voters the party depends on unquestioningly.  And it’s from only a 13% base to begin with.

Meanwhile, 50% will crawl on glass to vote against Trump/MAGOPs.  And that’s their starting point, already at 50% -- half!  And it’s “strongly disapprove” by an almost a 4-to-1 margin!!

An overall approval number is, of course, important.  But the “strongly” number – especially in a Mid-Term, and without Trump on the ballot – is critical.  And I don’t think it gets nearly as much attention as it deserves.  Which skews the terrible polls we already see for Trump and MAGOPs to seem better than they are.  And this isn’t just biased guessing on my part – rather, I’m sure it’s part of the reason why we’re seeing these huge gains (16 points, on average) in real-world results for Democrats in Special Elections, flipping 32 Red seats already…to zero flipped Blue seats.  No, it’s not the only reason – because the plummeting of support by Independents, young people and Hispanics are especially critical for these Special Election results – but part of it.

So, when looking at the “strongly” numbers, I get even more encouraged by the polls.  Because – well, people here know the rest and can probably recite it along:  because there is no one around Trump who can help him fix the problems, since all those in a position to help are unqualified, incompetents, hired only to say “Yes,” loyally to him.  And because Trump has dementia which is degenerative, which we see getting worse more quickly, how psychologists say dementia works.  Which explains why we are also seeing the dam finally starting to break on stories addressing concern over Trump’s “mental cognitive” failing -- and even more stories (not a lot, but most definitively more) that actually are now using the “dementia” word.  And because we've seen the consistent Special Election results in the real world.  And because throughout the course of my life it's how I've seen people, including myself, when reacting to things -- or when reacting to things strongly.

I don't know, of course, I could be wrong, despite all the apparent evidence.  The only thing I know for certain is that, in an election, when I see a poll say that 50% strongly disapprove of Trump, and 13% strongly approve, I'm glad I'm not on the side of the 13%.