The Sky is Blue

Starting in the late afternoon yesterday, I began watching the news – though not so much listening, since what was being said until results started coming in were meaningless.  However, what I did pay attention to were the exit poll results to a range of questions in New Jersey and Virginia.  That said, even those were fully meaningful, because I don’t know what percentage of votes they related to.  However, since it was coming on 7 PM in the East, as the polls neared closing, I thought they probably covered most voters who had cast their ballots in person.  So, with all this in mind, the wrote to a friend that sense I got was that Democrats will be doing very well.
 
And I said that, too, since the exit polls don’t include mail-in ballots, and those lately have favored Democrats.
 
Still, though, when sending that email, MSNBC had a chyron saying that New Jersey is “expected to be a nailbiter.”  Well, that struck me as weird.  I knew that polls in that race had tightened, but my understanding was that Mikie Sherrill was up by about 5-8 points.  And (if so), while that marginally close, it certainly isn’t a “nail-biter.”  (After all, six points is a 53-47 win, which is very healthy.)  In fact, five days ago, the respected Quinnipiac had Mikie Sherrill up by eight points.  More to the point, I kept focusing on those exit polls on specific issues, and it just suggested to me that she would win with a respectable margin.
 
Moreover, I stood by what I wrote here yesterday:  that motivation to actually vote is a huge factor that adds perspective to who people prefer in polls.  And Democrats have a massive lead in motivation.  Additionally, I’ve extensively written here, as well, how the core MAGOP base voter absolutely loves Trump, but won’t necessarily go to the polls if Trump isn’t on the ballot.  And Trump is not on the ballot – and will not be on the ballot in 2026.
 
And I knew, as I’ve written here over and over – in all the Special Elections since Trump took office, Democrats have picked up an average of 16 points.
 
So, I sent off my email.
 
The good news for we All Night Election Viewers is that at least New Jersey and Virginia (and NY City) are all on the East Coast, so the results would likely be early.
 
California is another matter.  The state traditionally counts very slowly, often taking days.  Though there’s only one contest on the ballot, so one would think it could take shorter.  But even if the process takes its normal sluggish time, Proposition 50 is up by 20-25 points in the polls, so I figured the networks might even call it early.
 
And so I sat back to see.  Made my pizza.  Got my snacks out.  And waited.  Knowing that my guesses meant nothing.
 
And after only about an hour and a quarter in, Abigail Spanberger was ahead by so much, running far ahead of Kamala Harris’s 2024 numbers, that she was projected to be the winner.
 
It was a half-hour later that Democrat Aftab Pureval was projected the winner for mayor of Cincinnati over MAGOP Cory Bowman.  With 22.1% of the vote in, he was up 81.7%-18.3%.  [UPDATE:  The final result was 78%-22%.) Why is that notable?  Because Mr. Bowman is the half-brother of “JD Vance.”  (You will recall that Mr. “Vance” was born James Donald Bowman.  Later changed to James David Hamel.  Later changed to James David Vance. Then, J.D. Vance.  And finally, perhaps, “JD Vance”.)
 
And a half-hour later, Mikie Sherrill’s “nailbiter” election saved the nails of all Americans, as she was already projected to be the winner.  Leading 57-43% with 61% of the vote in.  It will likely get closer…but there’s a significant likelihood as I write this is that the margin could be double-digits.  So much for being a “nailbiter. 
 
The results for Mikie Sherrill later went to 57-42% with 94% of the vote in.  (Quite the “nailbiter”!)
 
And Abigail Spanberger had a near-identical 57-43% with 95% of the vote reported.
 
And all three Democratic judges for the Pennsylvania Supreme Court were re-elected by landslide margins.
 
And then the Democratic candidate Zohran Mamdani won the race for New York City mayor – by almost 10 points.
 
And in California, the vote for Proposition 50 – which could bring five more House seats to Democrats -- was so massive that MSNBC projected it would pass with 0% of the vote in!!  (With 64% of the vote now reported, as I write this, it’s leading by 30 points.)

And in arguably the most meaningful but under-reported results, Democrats had a slim 51-49 majority in the Virginia House of Delegates – but flipped 13 seats, and they now hold a 64-31 margin, with five seats undecided!
 
There’s a notable story that wasn’t mentioned on the coverage I saw.  It’s that Trump sent DOJ monitors to Virginia, New Jersey and California to intimidate voters and to create distrust in the elections so that he could call close results “rigged.”  But these results blew that fascist effort out of the water.
 
To be clear, these were results in limited states, so they aren’t “proof” of anything.  Though what they are, without a doubt, are very solid victories -- two of them in largely “purple” states and all of them supporting a direction that national polls (with Trump’s 37% approval and every Special Election averaging a pick-up of 16 points by Democrats) – show the country is headed.  So, the question now becomes:  when will MAGOPs in Congress start to be concerned about their own jobs by following a hugely unpopular leader who is a convicted felon, adjudicated rapist, and guilty business fraud…with dementia that is degenerative?
 
I don’t necessarily think there will be much of an immediate break.  But I do think the support is shaky.  I also think that there is now a good chance the government shutdown could end this week.  And – importantly – it won’t be because (as MAGOP Senate majority leader John Thune suggested, no doubt in dear hope) it’s the Democrats who cave.
 
So – what will MAGOPs say today?
 
A friend quipped that Mike Johnson can’t comment because he hasn’t seen the results yet.  I suspect Trump will focus on Zohran Mamdani and also saying the elections were rigged, despite such massive blow-out results.

What we do know though is that MAGOP Rep. Andy Ogles of Tennessee (the same fellow who put out a Christmas card with his entire family holding semi-automatic weapons around their Christmas tree...) already posted a tweet last night saying he was going to ask the House that it look into using the 14th Amendment to block Zohran Mamdani from taking office.  Yes, he really did.  Mind you, I have no idea what on earth he thinks that will do (and I'm not alone among all those I saw respond) since the 14th Amendment doesn't have anything remotely to do with prohibiting anyone from taking office -- and seems to do the exact opposite, providing all citizens with equal protection under the law.  But what I do know is that Mr. Ogles tweet shows the sweat-inducing terror of losing power, while also displaying the fascism we've come to expect from today's MAGOP in Congress.
 
By the way, a word about the New York mayoral race:
 
MAGOPs were obsessed by it.  And obsessed by Zohran Mamdani.  But the thing is -- no mayor of New York City has ever been elected to national office after leaving the job!  Ever.  In 250 years!  What the race was about is who the people of New York City wanted to be their mayor. Mamdani showed a blueprint for some Democrats, though hardly all, the Democratic Party is too diverse.  He himself is young, so he could have a political future beyond NYC.  But, of course, this is New York – any mayor first has to survive the city, which eats mayors for breakfast.  Tomorrow, half of New York will probably already have something to complain about him.
 
But Trump and MAGOPs will likely try to point at Zohran Mamdani and at supposedly rigged elections.  Or anything that has nothing to do with the truth.  Which is that the public hates what Trump and MAGOPs have done to the economy, tariffs, military in the cities, deporting people without due process, demolishing the White House and a 79-year-old convicted felon and adjudicated rapist who has dementia which is degenerative – and a 37% approval.
 
If MAGOPs want to ignore reality, let them.  Because that’s a terrible way to fix the problems you won’t acknowledge exist.