The Second String

Since the election, I've read a lot of concern about how likely it is that "JD Vance" will become president, as Trump's dementia worsens. And if so, how much smart and more manipulative he is than Trump and therefore more dangerous.

I do think there's a serious possibility of him becoming president during Trump's term in office, as I wrote in my article two days after the election.  That said, I have mixed thoughts about "JD Vance".

Yes, he's definitely smarter and more clever than Trump. And far smoother.  And that's a big problem. But -- he's very unliked. He had the lowest favorability of all four candidates in the election, by far.  It was around 30%, which pollsters said was the lowest on record, I think. Further, he does not remotely have the cult and loyal following of Trump.  I'm sure some, the most-extreme MAGOP, would believe anything he says and would follow him anywhere -- but not the full party. And unlike Trump, if he shot someone on 5th Avenue, he would lose support. 

Also, he's not as truly lunatic as Trump, and so he's not nearly as willing to say and do the most outrageous things. (Like when Trump was first running, he publicly gave out Lindsey Graham's personal phone number.)  And unlike Trump, he's not an an insecure, infantile level and so won't insult his own party members or given them ridiculing nicknames if they ever say anything critical of him -- and then find someone to challenge them in the MAGOP primaries, who he'd endorse.  In fact, he would need all their support.  And as a result, I don't think MAGOPs in Congress are scared of "Vance." They would stick with him because he's president -- but right now, since Trump is a lame duck, I'm sure there are already party members in Congress and governors who are already looking into running for president in 2028.  In fact, even if "Vance" does become president by 25th Amendment succession, I don't imagine many or even most of those politicians already looking into running in 2028 would pull back their "exploratory" teams and so, would still challenge him. Which means he would be a target of (at least low-level) in-party criticism.  Trump became Trump because of a cult of personality. "JD Vance," however, doesn't have much of a personality -- for that matter, he's not even actually "JD Vance."

He's James Donald Bowman, then James David Hamel, then "J.D. Vance", then "JD Vance." And he's not actually from Appalachia, but from a suburb of Cincinnati. The point being that he is a feather in the wind, he's a cipher, he isn't (like MAGOPs like to excuse Trump as "It's just Trump being Trump") "JD Vance" being "JD Vance." Because there isn't a "JD Vance." He doesn't really have positions, but has been paid for and also indoctrinated by others. (For goodness sake, he called Trump "America's Hitler" and then ran as his running mate!) And those "others" are the extreme billionaire Peter Thiel and extreme fascists like Curtis Yarvin, his mentor of sorts (who has said, among other things, that the government "must be deleted" and calls for a dictatorship), people with next to nothing in common with most Americans, and even most MAGOPs.

And ultimately, "JD Vance" creeps people out. Tim Walz didn't make a plan to call him "weird," it just flowed out naturally. For a reason.  It was "JD Vance" who made an issue of "childless cat ladies".  It was "JD Vance" who first brought up that Haitians were eating pet dogs and cats.

To be clear, I do think he's dangerous. He is far smarter than Trump.  And his outspoken views are pure fascist.  And he absolutely has to be prepared for. But I think he has far more negatives as a "leader" gathering a party of followers -- and making party officials terrified of his irresponsibility and craziness, as they were of Trump keeping them in line -- than Trump ever had.

But yes, I do think it is not unlikely that the 25th Amendment will kick in at some point.