The Party's Over

Amid the positive news that's come from Joe Biden's election and subsequent actions, there has certainly been more than a fair-share of dismal news, as well.  But, for my taste, I think among the most positive news that's come as a result of today's fascist Republican Party (which is the foundation of so much of the bad news) is one item that hasn't gotten a great deal of attention, though little by little is being reported.

And that's how over 30,000 voters have dropped their Republican affiliation ever since the insurrection attempt on January 6, only about three weeks ago.  Now, 30,000 voters isn't the most significant number when 155 million people voted in the presidential election last year.  But what's significant is where most of the movement has been. 

Since early January -- nearly 10,000 Pennsylvania voters left the Republican Party. Almost 6,000 registered voters in North Carolina left the GOP. Around 5,000 voters in Arizona left.  More than 4,500 in Colorado dropped their Republican affiliation.  And around 4,000 voters in Florida left the Republican Party.

Almost all of these can be considered swing states, or are close to that where they could slip back into that category and be at risk to either party.  Keep in mind that Trump and the GOP went in full-blown apoplexy in Georgia over losing there by 11,000 votes.  (Sorry, I mean 11,780...)  So, these numbers are significant.  They can be the difference in one of these state's results, or push a state more into the safety zone, past what would be an automatic recount.

Also, these are numbers from only five states.  I have a hard time imaging that those are the only states in the entire country which have lost Republican voters.  Equally important, these are figures from just three weeks. It's hard to see the GOP regaining total sanity anytime soon and become significantly less fascist.  If anything, the party seems to be having a mass meltdown and eating its young -- and elders, which only serves nourish its basest instincts, embracing its Inner Fascist, which is the very foundation of what's causing people to leave..  So, it  seems likely that the number of GOP voter desertions will increase over time.  And not just in these five states, but across the country, even in red states.  Though it's the battleground states where loss of party members will have the serious impact.

Ultimately, this points to the dilemma that Republican senators face in the Senate Impeachment Trial.  I understand that it's likely there won't be enough GOP votes to convict Trump.  Though given the aggressive case that House Managers will most certainly make, along with what I'm sure will be devastating, blunt, wrenching videos, acquittal is not a given.  

(Side note: contrary to what has been repeatedly reported, Senate Republicans did not vote that the Impeachment and trial are unconstitutional.  They only voted on a procedural motion by Democrats to table discussion on the constitutionality.  It's possible that some Republicans wanted to hear the arguments on constitutionality and weren't making a decision on innocence or guilt.  More to the point, it's one thing to vote on a procedural matter, and another entirely to cast a vote that will remain on your record and throughout U.S. history in support of inciting insurrection to overthrow the U.S. government.)

But let's assume that Republicans ultimately do vote to acquit Trump and enable seditious insurrection.  After the nation watches House managers present their blunt evidence against Trump inciting the insurrection and presenting horrifying videos of the mob storming the Capitol putting the full membership of the U.S. Congress at risk of their lives, it is not unreasonable that even more currently-registered Republicans will be outraged enough to additionally leave the party.  How many is almost a secondary issue, since losing any more members in swing states is a big problem for the GOP.  And further, in the 2022 mid-term election, there are 22 Republicans senators up for re-election and only 12 Democrats.  Not all are at risk of losing, but there are enough in purple states that are not on safe ground.  And losing party members is not a good foundation for Republicans.

No, we are not anywhere near the end of the Republican Party.  Indeed, it is still a major and seriously dangerous threat.  But they're doing everything they can themselves to cut it off at the knees.  And if they keep going at this pace, one can dream.

As I like to say, I live in reality, but I have a vacation home in the Land of Hope.