The Other Endgame

As Republicans try to elect a Speaker of the House and keep failing, the main story in political news has, of course, been the Endgame.  "What in the world will happen???"  And the correct answer has been -- Oh, God knows, it's anybody's guess.

But I realized that there is another Endgame at play here.  And I suspect it's significantly impacting the main story.

From all accounts, Kevin McCarthy has had his eye on being Speaker since getting elected to the House and being declared one of the GOP's three "Young Guns" (the other two of which have already left Congress).  Becoming Speaker has been his focused goal.  Never mind that policy and government has had next to nothing about that dream, just power, just being Speaker.  The most powerful joke in the House of Representatives.  And third in line to be president!

And at the moment, it looks like that dream is fading.  He still could succeed, but it's appearing less likely with each passing vote, all six of which he's not only lost, but finished second behind Democrat Hakeem Jeffries.

The thing is…if at last there is no path forward and he does finally lose - what's next for Kevin McCarthy?

Right now, he's the GOP's House Minority Leader.  When the new Congress if finally seated, the Republican Party will be in the Majority, but if McCarthy isn't able to win the Speakership, it's hard to imagine the GOP making him their Majority Leader.  Nor have any position in party leadership.

So, that means he'd become a back-bencher, just a regular sitting member of Congress, hoping to get assigned to a good committee.  Not likely even a committee chairman, because those positions are seemingly set with the current ranking member.

Which raises the Endgame question?  What does Kevin McCarthy do?  Does he just go back to a desk on the House floor to sit among all the other members?  Or - does he resign from the House?

I suspect the latter.  It's hard to see Kevin McCarthy staying in the House as just a member of the Republican Caucus.

And that's his double-whammy dilemma.  On the one hand, losing his dream to become Speaker.  And on the other hand, losing even being in Congress.  And this for a man to whom power has always been everything.

And it's actually worse than that.  It's not just losing his dream of being Speaker, but he had the Speakership in his hands.  Republicans won control of the House in the Midterms.  His party was now in control.  The job of Speaker was his to take.  Third in the line of succession for the presidency.  There really was no other serious contender.  But then, that appears gone.  And further, on top of that, he had been Minority Leader.  The most powerful position of the party when in the minority.  He was in charge of the Republican Party in the House.  But then, even just being a member of Congress appears gone.

It's one thing to lose your try to become Speaker.  A lot of people run for Speaker and lose, and then their career goes on just fine.  But to lose his try - his dream - this way, and also lose his position in Congress, that's a personal avalanche.

And the perspective of even that is much greater than it appears on the surface.  Because there is no doubt that not only did Kevin McCarthy think he'd become Speaker when Republicans won control of the House in the Midterms, but that he's be Speaker with a massive majority.  Republicans were predicting a huge Red Wave where they'd win 50-60 seats.  If there was this crazy, extreme-right MAGA wing of the party, well, okay, because he'd have a huge enough majority not to have to be concerned about them.  But then, the GOP had the rug pulled out from underneath, and only squeaked through with a majority so slim that they could only afford to lose four votes on any measure.  And now it appears Kevin McCarthy not only may not be Speaker with a massive majority, or be Speaker period, or be in a position of party leadership - but may leave Congress.  Period.

That's the Endgame he's facing.

A friend called me yesterday afternoon and asked if I thought McCarthy was finally facing his "Einstein Moment."  That after six loses and no apparent path to winning, he'd see that repeating the same thing and expecting a different result was insane - and therefore would drop out.  My friend thought so.

I said, no, I didn't think so.  Not yet. 

And that, I think, is one of the critical issues that's keeping his efforts alive to become Speaker, even if it means stripping a) much of its authority and b) his self-respect.  He will humiliate himself as much as possible to become Speaker, and if he does manage to hold out enough, that will be why.

Being Speaker has been his dream since entering Congress. It was in his hands.  To give that up not only means giving up his dream, but also (probably) giving up Congress.  That's a mountain to give up.  And I don't think someone that obsessed with his goal will give it up so readily, even when facing reality.  He'll look for every possible path and strategy, no mater how remote or unlikely.  And who knows?  He may find one.  Though probably not.  But you don't give up what has been your whole world because you keep losing by just a handful of votes while getting 90% of the votes of your caucus because a small bunch of crazies don't like you.

Pro athletes face their hardest decision on when to quit the sport they've loved and played since they were a child, often hanging on after their skills have diminished.  But they finally do quit because, physically, they just can't do the job anymore.  Kevin McCarthy can do the job.  He's at his peak.  He's got another 20 years or so ahead of him.  Quitting the race and leaving Congress after two days of razor thin votes??

I think that's too hard an Endgame for him to accept right now.  Especially when he may still have a chance.  No matter how infinitesimal and unlikely, after six losses.

But - well, this is today's Republican Party.  These are the people the party has enabled.  And these people in the extreme-crazy wing are not alone in the party enabling the Insurrection.  And enabling Trump.  And becoming fascist.  This is business as usual, this isn't "democracy is messy," this hasn't happened in 100 years.  This is today's Republican Party.  And Kevin McCarthy lead it in the House.

We reap what we sow.