The Other Election

For all the talk about who did the best in the New Hampshire Democratic primary -- Bernie Sanders for winning, Pete Buttigieg for finishing a close second after winning in Iowa, or Amy Klobuchar for coming from way back to finish third.  And for all the talk who did the worst in the Democratic primary -- Joe Biden for finishing a distant fifth, or Elizabeth Warren for dropping behind Kobuchar to fourth, or Andrew Yang and Michael Bennett who announced they are dropping out of the race (or suspending their campaign -- I think it's important to look at a result that is largely overlooked of who may have had the most problematic night.

And that's Trump in the Republican primary.  Really.  In the freezing cold and snow, 21,000 Republican voters braved the harsh conditions to go out and specifically VOTE AGAINST Trump, who has virtually guaranteed to win the election.  In what was essentially a one-person race, Trump only got 85.5% of the vote.  That means 14.5% of Republicans went out into the snow to vote against their party leader, knowing for certain that he would win regardless of their vote.

For someone who claims he has 95% of Republican support, that is very bad.  Actually, it's very bad for anyone who is their party's leader and running against opponents who most people voting have never heard of.  The one serious opponent, Bill Weld, last held public offer 23 years ago.  That's longer ago that probably many people voting have been alive.  And he got 9.1%, over 12,000 votes.

The polls may show that Trump has 95% of support in the GOP.  But in part that's because a lot of Republicans have left the party and are now independents.  And in part because, while they may not like Trump, they're lifelong Republicans and want to support the party when talking to a pollster.  But clearly, when given a choice to vote, over 14% of Republicans chose to vote against Trump for people most of them likely didn't know.

Trump has been clear about wanting to flip New Hampshire in 2020, which he lost to Hillary Clinton by 2,700 votes.  When you drop 14,000 votes from your own party in the primary, you have a massive hurdle to get over to win that state.

There were two elections last night.  It really did not go well for Trump.