The November Vote

It's not a great leap to say how outrageous the Wisconsin legislature is to have pushed forward with their primary as planned, not how outrageous the Supreme Court decision to overturn the lower court.

The Wisconsin legislature went insane about 10-15 years ago when it got so bad that Democrats had to hid out across the state so that there couldn’t be a quorum.  I don’t know what happened to them.  It’s always been a contradictory state – very radical (largely through the University of Wisconsin) on the one hand, and the deeply-conservative, near-fascist home state of Joseph McCarthy on the other.

Obviously, I have no way of knowing what will happen with voting in November.  I know that many states are working to strengthen vote-by-mail in their states – but not all are, or will be able to.  I know too that there are efforts in Congress to push a national vote-by-mail law – though I’m not holding my breath on that.  Further, some states have discussed significantly extending early voting, thinning out the intensity of election day (which would seem a very easy, if partial fix.) I don’t believe the election will be called off (Trump can’t do that) or even delayed – elections are run by the states.  But of course, it’s possible if not likely that the November election will be impacted without universal vote-by-mail. 

BUT –

But I don’t believe, as many people presume, that that means a “lower turnout” will benefit Republicans as is generally the case.  And that's terrifying a lot of Democrats.  However, it’s generally the case because of voter apathy, which is not what’s at work here.  The issue for November is concern of congregating with other people.  And that affects people of both parties.  In fact, going out on a limb and based on no empirical evidence, I think it’s entirely possible that a lower turnout could possibly benefit Democrats, most especially since the reason for a lower turnout would be concerns over infection six months from now -- which means people would have been living under this Trump-induced stress for eight months.  When November rolls around, all Democrats and the GOP cult-like base will be motivated to vote, whatever the health conditions are -- Democrats out of visceral hatred for Trump, the GOP base out of acolyte adoration.  But I’m not sure that ALL Republicans (and by that, I mean the moderates and non-idolizing conservatives) will be as willing to go out to the polls during a health crisis to risk their lives voting for Trump, particularly if this horrific pandemic is still uprooting “their” lives for eight months, and they’re unemployed and in debt and have lost family members or friends, and remember that Trump said the coronavirus would be gone soon like a miracle, and remember that he closed down the Pandemic Response Unit and didn't refund the CDC budget for infectious disease, which made this all worse and kept it going for eight months and counting.  Further, since the people most at risk of death from COVID-19 are those over 65, they may be the most reticent to go to the polls, and that's a problem for Republicans since the age-group is the core "Fox News" viewer.  And further, because voting-by-mail is likely to be significant in November, my guess is that the states least set up for vote-by-mail is likely be are Red states.

I have no way of knowing if any of that is true.  It may not be.  But I don’t think it’s an unreasonable scenario to consider.  Republicans might think a low turnout will favor them – and it might – but I wouldn’t rely on that as a certainty if I was them.  It could backfire on them big time.

By the way, the interesting thing is that these arguments largely hold even if the virus isn't a factor in voting this November.  That would mean the turnout should be massive -- and that generally favors Democrats, who have been gut-wrenchingly waiting to vote against Trump for four years.  And while the Republican cult base will be as fanatical to vote -- enough of that "other" part of the Republican Party that's not blind devotees of Trump is still not going to forget all of that noted above.  And it only takes a shift of three percent to simply not vote at all, or to feel that Trump has finally exhausted them, put them at hellish risk and worn out his welcome enough to be comfortable voting for Joe Biden which turns a close 51-49% election into a 54-46% route.  And that doesn't even take into consideration the Independents in the middle who it would seem likely could feel the same after living through a health pandemic that Trump ignored for months that put everyone at risk and killed masses of Americans and everything mentioned above.

Mind you, the fact that this issue even exists is insane.  Of course all Americans should find it as easy as possible to vote, whatever their party – and of course all Americans should have their health protected at all times, but notably in order to vote..