The Morning After: Unfinished Edition

As I wrote a couple weeks back, I had no idea how the election would go.  As yesterday neared, my sense changed slightly to, "If I had to bet, it would be that Republicans would take control of the House and the Senate -- but -- I'm glad that I did not have to bet because if women voters and young voters came in strong numbers to the polls, that could swing close elections to Democrats."   

As it turns out, I was right – I have no idea how the election will go.  And that’s after the election.

Four things are clear:  the first is that even if Democrats lose control of the House and Senate, this is profoundly closer than Republican were expecting eight months ago – and even far less than just two days ago.  That should not be considered a victory by Democrats:  losing control of both houses of Congress is an awful thing.  But it speaks loudly about how uncomfortable the public is with the extreme fascism of the Republican Party.  Historically, Republicans should have picked up 40-60 seats in the House, and that should have been on the high end given public concern with inflation as their #1 issue.  And lost perhaps five Senate seats.  So, a squeaky thin margin in the House should give Republicans deep pause if they try to act with hubris – which they will.  (All the more problematic for them, too, if they ignore that Democrats flipped a bunch of governorships.)  And that's if Republicans gain control of both houses, or either, since it appears Democrats may have kept control of the Senate.

The second thing is that women voters and young voters did indeed come to the polls in huge numbers which made a Red Wave a distant memory. 

Third is that most of the craziest, most-extreme, fringe candidates who Trump pushed have done poorly, and may have kept the GOP from taking control of the Senate.  (Before the election, he was asked about his responsibility for the candidates he got on the ballot.  His answer was pure, quintessential Trump that explains his fragile, infantile psyche perfectly.  "If they win I should get all the credit.  If they lose, I should get none of the blame.")

And fourth is that, for the foreseeable future, no one should fool themselves into thinking Florida is even close to a Swing State and that it's "in play."

But there are other bizarre, important things at play.

One is that, against all odds, Democrats still have a realistic possibility of losing seats but retaining control of the House.  For either party to control the House, 218 seats are needed.  As I write this (at 12:45 PM in California, 3:45 AM in the East), MSNBC has predicted that the GOP will win 219 seats…but with a plus/minus of 13 seats!  Which means they could end up with as much as 232 seats – or actually lose the House with only 206 seats.

(The weirdest thing of the night might be that what keeps Democrats from retaining control of the House is that they are poised to have a bunch of seats flipped in, of all states, New York.  Including that of Democratic Committee Congressional Chairman Sean Patrick Maloney.  Despite winning the governorship and re-electing Chuck Schumer to the Senate.)

And another bizarre, important thing is that Democrats could retain control of the Senate with another 50-50 split.  It’s incredibly tight, but with just-called wins in Pennsylvania (which is a flipped seat) and Hawaii, they have 48 seats right now.  So, with a probable (but still close) win in Arizona, it comes down again to Georgia, where Sen. Warnock is now ahead by about 11,500 votes with 96% of the vote counted, and there will probably be a run-off because neither candidate will have a 50% majority.

But here’s the weird thing.  Nevada had been seen as a likely flip to Republicans, except that within the past two weeks, Democrat incumbent senator Catherine Cortez Masto closed the gap and is seen now as a possible win.  Which means – IF Democrats do hold those other races (an strong “if”), then Georgia will not be a run-off for control of the Senate, but rather to find out whether Democrats end up with 51 seats.  And if that’s the case, then a lot of Republicans who held their noses and voted for Herschel Walker so that they could win the Senate might not vote in the run-off.  Which would likely give Warnock an even better path to win.

And it's important to note, too, that although I expect Ron Johnson will unfortunately win in Wisconsin (aghh) – it’s actually too close to call, and as I write this he’s only up by 1.6% with 93% of the vote in.  Which means bizarrely that it’s actually possible (though highly unlikely) Democrats could end up with the magical 52 seats!  I seriously doubt it, and they could even still lose control of the Senate, but… yesterday, who would have thought it’s possible?

Or…or…or…

Oh, who knows?

And none of this addresses the races I'm deeply disappointed Democrats lost.  And those I'm thrilled they won.  This is a Big Picture look.  

(Nor does it address the more distant aftermath that now-shaky GOP leader Trump remains under investigation and in court with four cases -- after having just settled a fifth.)

It was certainly a better night for Democrats than most expected.  And women and young voters participated in droves.  And the country didn't go full-fascist.  (Only half...)  But Republicans might still win control of both the Senate and House.  Or win the House, but lose the Senate.  Or win the Senate and lose the House.  Or lose both the Senate and House.

And by the time you read this, much of what I wrote will likely have changed.  But who knows? 

Furthermore, given how votes will be counted in close elections, and then recounts and challenges and hand-counting – we may not know the answer to all this for many weeks.

So – who knows?

Who knows?

Which means...wait, hey, I was right!!! 

"Who knows?" was the big winner.