The Morning After: Day Two

Three takeaways I had from last night.

Glad as I am that Joe Biden is best-positioned to win the presidency, albeit knowing that that isn't anywhere near certain, I found the Election Night disturbing.  My hope -- and I know I was far from alone -- was not only that Trump and his fascism, hatred, incompetent, malignant lies and white supremacy would be disgraced, but also that the Republican Party would see itself discredited by the American public, to the extent that they'd have to go retrench.  Even if Trump does lose, neither of those happened.  In fact, they see themselves getting supported, encouraged.  And it's disturbing.  In the middle of a pandemic, with 237,000 Americans dead so far -- and predictions that it could go to 400,000 -- the economy collapsed, mass bankruptcies, racial divide, the rise of white supremacy, embracing foreign dictators, colluding with our enemies, and an impeached president protected by his party, Republicans actually gained a few seats in the House (though didn't get control) and not only didn't lose control of the Senate, but may have lost only one seat.  I haven't heard any statistics on down-ticket statehouse races, but I suspect the same holds there as nationally, and in a census year when redistricting is on the table that could impact the country for a generation, that's deeply disappointing, as well.

Yesterday morning, the eloquent Princeton professor Eddie Glaude was on MSNBC, looking first at the current state of the fascist Republican Party and at the country that has had its moorings shredded, and then speaking of Republican voters, said, "I don't know what they want."  Which he repeated, "I don't know what they want."  The thing is, I'm not completely sure there's any specific answer, because I don't get the sense that they know what they want.  They may say what they want is to make America great again -- again.  But you look around at a pandemic, 237,000 Americans dead, the fabric of society and its daily life shredded, bankruptcies, people facing evictions, loss of healthcare, angry division, domestic terrorists masquerading as outraged patriots, and it's all created under this man and this party, and they think this is making America great?? This is what they voted for, again?  It's hard to imagine they actually know what they themselves really want.  If they're mad or scared at society, this is the party and its con-man malignant narcissist leader that drove us here.  But I guess that's what you deal with when facing a cult mentality that has a hold on 30 percent of the country.  David Jolly, a former Republican congressman who has long-since left the party, last night wondered whether we've gotten to the point where some people aren't voting on individuals anymore, just a party label.

If Biden does ultimately win and if the Republicans retain control of the Senate with Mitch McConnell still in majority leadership control, it seems we're in for a tough four years.  That said, I do think there will be some issues that Republicans would support Biden, like foreign affairs and national security.  Still, it was a pummeling, disturbing day for what it said about half the country, strongly support a party that has enabled a pandemic, white supremacy and fellowship with dictators.  But...if you're only going to win one election, that one election being President of the United States -- assuming it does happen -- is a very, very good thing.  Especially when it means not merely winning, but removing Trump from the position.

Another takeaway is that it was a very bad night for polling services -- again.  In some ways, it may have been worse that four years ago, and that undermined public confidence in them.  After all, in 2016 pollsters actually got the national poll correct, despite the perception to the contrary.  What they got wrong were states, but not by much and there wasn't a lot of attention on them.  This year, they readjusted their polling, focused heavily on states and got so many things profoundly wrong.  

They even got the national race wrong.  Almost all polls had Biden up by 8-10 points, he won the national vote by about 2.5 points.  That's outside the margin of error.  They had the South Carolina Senate race a toss-up tie -- but Lindsey Graham won in a huge landslide by 12 points.  That's far outside the margin of error.  The ABC News/Washington Post poll had Biden winning Wisconsin by 17 points.  Another had it 11 points.  Most had it at 8 points.  It ended up about 1 point.  Way outside the margin of error.  Some races were better, but many were just as bad.  The Kentucky Senate race was leaning to Mitch McConnell by 5-8 points, though some had it closer.  He ran away in a laugher by 21 points.  Yes, that's outside the margin of error.

I know that some people gave pollsters cover by saying it was just a massive, unprecedented turnout -- but that's what polling services are supposed to figure out.  In fact, they often poll by "likely voters."  To be that wrong -- again, and maybe worse than before -- is a very strange and troubling turn for them.

And finally, as disturbing a night as the election was for a great many reasons, it can't be overstated how important it is that Joe Biden is best-positioned to win the presidency.  And get rid of Trump.  That is not guaranteed in the slightest -- by votes nor by legal challenges.  But Biden has several serious paths to winning at this point -- and remarkably may even extend that margin if he wins Georgia and Pennsylvania, both very real possibilities as vote counting continues.  In fact, for all the angst and nervousness, he may conceivably end with over 300 Electoral Votes. But if it just ends at a 270-vote squeaker...Dayenu.  It would be enough. 

And the thing is, oddly, Democrats still do have the chance to pick up another Senate seat, in a run-off in Georgia.  And conceivably there could be a second run-off in Georgia.  If they actually win both, they would take control of the Senate.  I don't expect that to happen.  I don't expect there even to be two run-offs.  But what I don't know if there is a run-off how Republican voters will be impacted going to the polls without Trump on the ballot -- compared to Democrats angry about Election Night and wanting some retribution.

I don't expect that.  I only know that if Joe Biden does win the presidency -- if -- the night was worth it.