The Kennedy "Factor"

First things first -- I’m not remotely concerned about Robert Kennedy Jr. as a challenger to Joe Biden.  He’s not running as a third party challenger who could possibly draw some votes away from the President.  He's running as a Democrat in the Democratic primaries.  And as such, it's not that he doesn't stand even the remotest chance of winning, or even showing that President Biden has weak support in the party, it's that Kennedy is going to have a tsunami wash over him. 

One poll that got some attention shows RFK Jr. having a higher favorability in New Hampshire than President Biden.  However, in a poll of how people would actually vote, Joe Biden leads in the state 68%-9%.  (Marianne Williamson got 8%.)  An earlier poll had "closer" results, but that's "closer" in the way that hoping to walk to California in four days from Ohio is closer than if you walked from Pennsylvania.  These results had Biden 70%, Kennedy 17%.  However, worth noting is that this poll was taken long before RFK Jr. made his latest crackpot statement, this one a few days ago in a video where he spoke about "Jewish COVID” and targeting ethnicities with viruses. 

It's hard to imagine -- for all his lunatic opinions, including how chemicals in the water are affecting issues of gender -- that the only factor impacting Robert Kennedy's "favorability" in these very early days of the campaign is Kennedy name recognition.  After all, I feel comfortable guessing that if you polled people who have a good opinion of RFK Jr., 95% of them couldn't tell you his position on...well, pretty much anything, other than perhaps him being anti-vax.  But they could tell you his last name.

(To keep in mind how massive the Kennedy name is in American politics -- not even just Democratic politics:  when the crackpot extreme right QAnon conspiratorialists came up with one of their insane theories, it was that John F. Kennedy and John Kennedy Jr. would each return to life, and that JFK would run on a ticket with Trump.)

Are there people who will vote in Democratic primaries for Robert Kennedy Jr.?  (And Marianne Williamson?)  Absolutely.  Joe Biden is too moderate for some, and too conservative for others.  For some, he'll be too old, and  some people just want to make a protest vote.  But he's still going to swamp all others on the Democratic ballot.  And then in the general election, he will be the Democratic nominee.

(By the way, speaking to this point, that poll which had President Biden winning the New Hampshire primary 68%-9%, also showed that every single person responding -- a full 100% -- who identified as being “very conservative” said they would vote for Kennedy in the Democratic primary.  This supports the wide-held believe that Kennedy's campaign is being promoted by the Republican right.  And adds perspective why New Hampshire is no longer the first Democratic primary)

And to put all these polls numbers in another perspective:  Trump is going to get the Republican Party nomination, despite his multiple indictments and being found liable of sexual assault.  He is, I believe, an absolute shoo-in, no other GOP candidate has a chance.  And that's said despite a recent NBC News poll showing him with just 51% support -- and all other Republicans with 46%, including Ron DeSantis at 22%.  So, Robert Kennedy Jr. -- with the Kennedy name -- getting 9% of the vote in a Democratic primary, compared to President Biden getting 68%, is not an embarrassment.  Except, perhaps, to RFK Jr.

There is only one semi-issue of slight wariness in Kennedy's effort, and that concerns the order of primaries.  As it stands, South Carolina will be the first official Democratic primary.  However, New Hampshire has made noises about insisting that it be first.  But if it does end up scheduling its primary ahead of South Carolina, the Democratic National Party has said that that won't be authorized, and no electoral votes will be given.  And Joe Biden won't run it, won't even have his name on the ballot.  As a result, RJK Jr. could conceivably get enough meaningless votes that “look” bad.  Though it’s also possible Biden could get so many write-in votes that he wins, even though he’s not on the ballot, which would made RFK Jr. look like the embarrassing joke he is. 

Which brings up the second thing.

Robert Kennedy Jr. put out a statement last week, trying to clarify his aforementioned “Jewish COVID” statement about targeting ethnicities with viruses that circulated days before in a video.  In this written response to the blistering criticism of his video, he tried to explain what he was saying (digging an even deeper hole) and complained that he wanted to be on the debate stage with the President and the media was trying to “discredit me like a crank.”  (As if he needs the media for that…)

The written “clarification” of the video was cringeworthy, but I bring it up because of two great responses on Twitter.

The first came from a regular, everyday subscriber, not anyone with noted expertise, who posts under the name 'Renee'.  However, her reply was so simple and polite in expressing its blistering criticism that I wrote her back about how great it was.  What she wrote was –

First of all, we saw the video. Second, this tweet is no better. Third, any news org that paints you as anything other than completely out of your mind is not to be trusted EVER again. Lastly, you don’t belong anywhere near my president yet alone on a debate stage with him.

​The second response came from a doctor, a virologist, Dr. Angela Rasmussen.  And it was eloquent in its simplicity expressing science.  She wrote --

Enzymes like furin are not differentially compatible with different ethnicities. Jewish or Chinese protease consensus sequences are not a thing in biochemistry, but they are in racism and antisemitism.

In fairness, I don't know if Robert Kennedy Jr. is racist or anti-Semitic.  I don't think he is -- though I don't know, that's just a guess.  I do think he's a bright guy on some subjects.  Above all, and most importantly, I also think he has a side of him, and it's a big side, that is a total, unadulterated, unhinged loon.

And he's not getting within shouting distance of the Democratic nomination, and will need a telescope to find it.