The Great Races

Very interesting, long analysis of Senate races by Nathaniel Rakich on fiverthirtyeight.com.  It’s overflowing with LOTS of disclaimers, since the results are out of step with earlier polls, but analyst Rakich notes that they can’t be dismissed either, if only as showing the direction of the races.

Here’s the first part of the article, with one slight edit noted by ellipsis at the end of this first part) -- 

Before you read any further, let’s get one thing straight: It’s still pretty early to trust general-election polls. In addition to the small but significant error inherent in polls taken six months before Election Day, the coronavirus pandemic has made the fall political environment extremely uncertain. But some recent Senate polls have been so eye-popping that we’re compelled to write about them — if only to sound a note of caution.

Those polls imply a Democratic wave of truly epic proportions. In the space of just two days last week, we got:

• Two polls of Colorado: A Keating Research/Onsight Public Affairs/Melanson survey giving Democrat John Hickenlooper an 18-point lead over Republican Sen. Cory Gardner and a Montana State University Bozeman/University of Denver poll giving Hickenlooper a nearly identical 17-point lead over Gardner.

• A Montana State University Bozeman/University of Denver poll of Montana giving Democrat Steve Bullock a 7-point lead over Republican Sen. Steve Daines.

• And a Civiqs/Daily Kos survey giving Democrat Cal Cunningham a 9-point lead over Republican Sen. Thom Tillis in North Carolina.

To put it mildly, these polls were out of step with our previous perceptions of these races. Election handicappers believe Colorado is a toss-up or perhaps tilts a bit toward Democrats. And although Bullock’s entry into the race was expected to make Montana competitive, handicappers still think it favors Republicans. Likewise, the North Carolina Senate race is universally seen as a toss-up, not a healthy Democratic lead

​….So it’s fair to wonder how accurate these polls are.

The article concludes this way -- 

…Or not. As we said at the beginning, there is still plenty of time for the political environment to change. The health and economic situation could improve by the fall (or it could worsen). Another hot-button political issue could intervene. Or these polls could have missed the mark — it’s still six months out, after all. In the end, all these polls do is tell us something we should have already known: A second consecutive Democratic wave election is on the table. But it’s not dinner time yet.

If you want to see the whole article, you can find it here.