The GOP Conundrum

It’s hard to imagine that Donald Trump won’t be the Republican nominee for president, and that’s even if he is indicted in all four of the active, major investigations – to go along with his one, current indictment in Manhattan.  In fact, that’s even if he gets convicted in all of the active cases, as well – to go along with his one guilty verdict already in the E. Jean Carroll case.

To be clear, it’s not “impossible” to imagine he won’t be the GOP nominee.  It's just hard.

And the really bad thing for Republicans is that even if the “hard to imagine” comes to reality, that would be even worse for the party.

The good news for Republicans that someone else is not likely to get the nomination other than Trump.  The bad news is that someone else is not likely to get the nomination other than Trump.

This doesn’t mean Trump or some other Republican won’t win the presidency in 2024.  It’s so far away right now, and there is a world of possibilities that could happen which allow a Republican to get elected, especially in a landscape where the Electoral College exists.

But the point here is that it is unlikely that anyone other than Trump will be the GOP nominee for president, which is the last things many, if not most top Republicans officials want.

The thing is, it’s one thing for Republican officials to not want Trump to be the nominee, and for them to be horrified if he is because of their awareness that it might likely sink the party.  But it’s another for the public not to vote for him, regardless of what the officials want.

For starters, the GOP base has shown that Trump was right when he said seven years ago that his base would vote for him even if he shot someone on Fifth Avenue.  And that’s 30% of the party.  That’s Trump’s starting point.  No one else running in the party comes close to that.  That leaves 70% of the vote up for grabs.  Now, being very conservative, add a paltry10% more from the remaining 70%.  So, Trump would seem to have 40% of the GOP vote without doing anything, other than sit at home and scam them fundraising.

There are five candidates who have currently declared.  Three of them don’t remotely have a chance, so that leaves two who are semi-serious – Nikki Haley and Asa Hutchinson.  There are three others who seem possible to declare – Ron DeSantis, Mike Pence and Tim Scott.  And a few others.  But for now, that’s the most probable field.

Those five (or possibly eventually more) have 60% of the remaining Republican vote to divide among themselves.  And one of them has to get over Trump’s 40% to become the nominee.  And it’s 40% as the basic starting point.  He may add more as the primary campaign goes on – I’m just being conservative.

Let’s say Ron DeSantis gets half the remaining vote from all the other candidates -- he’s still at only 30%.  And the other four (or more) get to split the 30% left over.  Though these guesses of numbers that “high” are based on Trump getting zero of this as-yet untaken 60%.  Nothing more.  Not even one percent higher.  Without question, that’s certainly possible.  It’s just “hard to imagine.”

After all, just consider the debates.  For the sake of argument, all other candidates might have far better platforms than Trump, smarter, more interesting.  But there are two huge problems here.

One is that if any candidate tries to argue against the far-right extremist fascism of today’s GOP, it’s not what the party is today.  Serious, traditional conservative is why so many former Republicans left the party – there was no place for them.  And if, on the other hand, any candidates try to out-fascist Trump, they’ll likely find that’s near-impossible to do.  Since not only is he pretty far all-in fascist, but he would probably ratchet himself further fascist because he has no core and will do or say anything to win, and fascism is his turf and won’t let anyone take it. 

(Worse for Republicans, we saw how badly they did in 2022 with such a high level of extremism, so going even more fascist risks destroying any hope they have of winning in the general election – and truly destroying the party, since all other Republican candidates across the country will have to support the presidential candidate and the party platform that comes with it.)

The second problem is that the other candidates are basic humans, even Ron DeSantis. and don’t go around viciously smearing other people on their side as a core to their ingrained personality.  So, they can’t compete on a debate stage with Trump on that level.  Any candidate who might be a threat is going to have to face a wild rampaging, rabid dog and have nothing in their arsenal to fight back in return.  Just look at what he did in 2015 to the gallery of highly-notable Republicans on the debate stage – Jeb! Bush, Lindsey Graham, John Kasich, Lyin’ Ted Cruz, Little Marco Rubio, Chris Christie and more.  They didn’t know what hit them.  And…they almost all came back to support him with love.  Because that’s today’s GOP.

Keep in mind, too, importantly, that Trump doesn’t have to get over 50% in any primary to become the nominee (though he may).  He only has to get more than the others.  And win enough delegates to get the nomination.  That total is 1,234.  In winner-take-all states, with Trump starting at 40% and a field of also rans dividing up the remaining votes between them, he’ll pad his lead.  In “proportional” states, he’ll get his 40% of the delegates, while all the others will get their 5-15%.

Seriously, particularly in the early campaign, as Trump builds up his cushion, who is going to get more than the 40% Trump is almost guaranteed?  Mike Pence?  The GOP base wanted to literally kill him?  Nikki Haley or Tim Scott?  Not in this fascist, racist, misogynist, white supremacist GOP.  Add Kristi Noem to that list, who if she runs is probably just trying to get on the VP ticket.  Asa Hutchinson – or Chris Sununu or Mike Rogers or Chris Christie?  Unfortunately, they’re part of that traditional conservative wing of the Republican Party whose voters left years ago, fleeing for their lives.  That leaves Ron DeSantis, who is having a hard time against Mickey Mouse and recently got slammed on his test tour “economic trade mission” that ended in London to comments like, “low-wattage,” “his message wasn’t presidential,” and “He was horrendous.”  And he’s the leading contender!

Despite his huge flaws showing at the seams, Ron DeSantis does have a remote chance to get the nomination if all others drop out early, and Trump gets several more indictments and another guilty verdict.  But that’s still a long-shot chance, because it’s a lot of “if’s” -- and even stil, Trump might have accumulated enough delegates for anyone to get past him.  Besides which, as noted, DeSantis has shown himself to be a wildly incompetent national candidate.  He plays great in Florida, but there are not even any Deep Red states who have matched all the extreme-right fascist polices that Florida has.  And when a state is too fascist for the rest of the Republican Party, you have a whole lot of problems when you leave the Florida borders and try campaign in primaries as a national candidate.

But that’s where the final problem for DeSantis or any other GOP candidate kicks in.  And causes even a worse problem for the Republican Party.  Which is pretty awful when the alternative is Trump being the nominee and potentially destroying the party. 

This is known as the “Rock and a Hard Place” Gambit.

Let’s say Ron DeSantis – or Asa Hutchinson or Mike Pence or Chris Sununu or whoever – actually does get the Republican nomination.  Someone other than Trump.  How many people think Trump will go quietly?  (I don’t mean how many reading this – I mean how many in America.)  Anyone??

Trump is not a narcissist.  He is a malignant narcissist.  That is a separate psychological condition, and one of the ways it manifests is that not only must everything be about you, but if it isn’t about you, the malignant narcissist will try to destroy everything.  Burn it down.

If Trump is denied the GOP nomination for any reason, even if it’s his own doing by getting five indictments and five convictions, he will try to destroy everything.  He will do all he can to burn down the Republican Party, which denied him and is his enemy.  It was rigged, stolen. fraud.  Lay waste to the party, go scorched earth.  I’m sure of it.

Mind you, I don’t know how that will manifest itself.  Maybe he’ll run as a third-party candidate.  Maybe he’ll tell all his base to stay home and not vote.  Maybe he’ll go around trashing the GOP nominee.  Maybe he’s just suck all the air out of the room making the GOP campaign still all about him, leaving little time for the actual Republican candidate to get any attention.  Maybe he’ll do everything he can to make his views be all that any voter can identify as “Republican.”  I don’t know – it’s multiple choice, pick as many options as you want.  And fill in the blank for any other possibilities.

I only know that either Trump gets the GOP nomination regardless of his legal situation, or he’ll do whatever he can bring down the party.

Republicans can still win, as I noted before.  There’s no question of that.  Especially in an Electoral College World, and one filled with voter suppression laws.  (Though those are mostly – though not exclusively -- in Red states that Republicans would win anyway.) 

But as a foundational starting point – Trump as their nominee, or party arsonist -- it’s not a good place for the GOP to be.  And they no one to blame, because they brought it on themselves.