The Enthusiasm Gambit

​For a while now, I’ve been postulating about something I’ve noticed in polls that struck me as important.  That, as notable as Trump’s plummeting approval has been, down to 34% in many polls, it wasn’t the number that most interested him.  That number was when the results were broken down by “Strongly approve” and “Strongly disapprove.”  Because those are the numbers that focus on “enthusiasm.”  And it’s seemed to me that enthusiasm is what drives people to the polls to actually vote.  Even more than polls of “likely voters.”  Especially in a Mid-Term election when turnout is significantly lower than in a presidential year. 

Likely voters are certainly a very important segment of the voting public, much more than just a general reaction of everybody.  But likely voters who “Approve/Disapprove” are “Yeah, I probably will vote, but we’ll see.”  However, “strongly” are people who will crawl over broken glass to vote.  You don’t need TV ads or phone calls or knocks on your door to try to get them to turn out and vote.  You’re motivated.  Especially in a Mid-Term Election. 

Polls are important.  Policy is important.  Good candidates are important.  But what matters most in any election, and especially a Mid-Term Election is pretty basic: voter turnout.  That’s why my sense has been that “strongly” (on both sides of the poll question) is what’s had a lot to do with Democrats overperforming in every Special Election since Trump took office.  That’s why, it’s seemed to me, Democrats have flipped 31 of the Special Elections to zero by MAGOPs.  Not just that so many Democrats crawled over broken glass to vote, but why so many MAGOPs couldn’t be excited enough to leave home to vote (let alone make the effort to, God forbid, vote by mail).  Especially in a Mid-Term Election. 

And even more, when it comes to November, especially without Trump on the ballot – who, for a great many in the MAGA base that generally hates and ignores politics, is the only reason they have enthusiasm to vote.

And when I say “Democrats,” I also include the enthusiasm – one way or the other – of Independents.  In some ways, “strongly” approve/disapprove enthusiasm might be even more important for them.  Not being emotionally tied to any political party, only if they strongly feel a certain way will like, perhaps, get them to turn out to vote.  Especially in a Mid-Term Election.

 That said, as much as it was my sense of all this, it was only that, a perception.  I had no data to back that up.

Until now.

The Washington Post did a study of ballots cast in all the primaries that have been run so far.  And what Raw Story reported about the results was --

“The Post's analysis of more than 990 House primary races across 25 states found that 12.6 million ballots were cast in Democratic primaries so far this year, compared to just 8.6 million in Republican contests. In 2022, when Republicans flipped the House, the enthusiasm advantage ran the other way. 

“In more than 90% of Democratic House primaries held this year, voter turnout exceeded 2022 levels, a benchmark that analysts say is unlike anything since the 2006 blue wave that ended the Bush era.”

The article added one other noteworthy statistic.  That in a earlier study, only 50% of MAGOP voters said that they were "extremely motivated" to vote in November compared to 66% of Democrats.  The article went on to say that this was “a deficit that Trump's own pollster has warned could cost Republicans both chambers.” 

It’s important to note, as well, that this Post study was done before Trump’s “Memorandum of Understanding” with Iran that has roundly slammed, not only by Democrats but also MAGOPs, both in Congress and the general public.  Likely infuriating both Democrats and Independents, and arguably depressing MAGOPs.  And before, too, Trump’s bizarre, almost comical meltdown over his Reflecting Pool fiasco – not just with algae returning already, but with paint chunks floating on the water, as well as Trump out-of-control blaming conspiracies and “Vandals” and assertions of unproven arrests, while all the public, whatever your politics, can actually see the toxic hydrogen peroxide poured in the pools by Trump’s clean-up team and actually see the chunks of blue paint and actually see the algaie.  All of which, again, infuriates Democrats and can only serve to depress MAGOPs.  Even more than before.

So, when polls keep getting published, as valuable as they are, it seems to me that looking at how those numbers are divided into “strongly” approve or disapprove is what’s most important to look at.  And right now, including with polls show that Independents are heavily breaking for Democrats, that gap – of who is most enthusiastic to actually vote – is falling heavily on the side of Democrats.