The Debate Debate

So, will there be a debate?

The official answer is – who knows?  But if I had to make a guess, it would be “Yes.”  I saw that for a couple of reasons.

First, I think the “Trump is a coward” mantra will take hold, and it’s one of those concepts that he has a very hard time managing.  Second, I think it’s likely that after the Democratic Convention Kamala Harris will get a solid bump and have a lead in at least several battleground states.  And that will be enough to scare Trump into recognize he can’t hide but needs to make his case to voters.

There are some other minor reasons.  One is that Trump seems to think that he’s a brilliant debater -- based on no evidence other than lying all the time is hard to respond to when your opponent is not expecting it – and, in the end, probably will convince himself that he can defeat anyone in a debate.  And the other is that Trump, after saying it over and over and over and over, will probably convince himself (as he so often does) that what he’s lying about is true and that Kamala Harris (in his mind) is as “stupid” as he keeps trying to convince his base, without offering the slight evidence.  Since none exist.

(Side note:  Everyone says and does stupid things on occasion.  “What was I thinking?” might be one of the most common phrases in the history of the world and core to human existence.  That does not make people “stupid.”  But of course, if saying and doing stupid things on occasion is someone’s definition of “stupid,” then Trump, whose flamboyant ignorance is on display daily – from thinking wind turbines cause cancer, drinking bleach can cure COVID, solar batteries don’t work at night, boat engines will electrocute you in the water, that there were airports during the Revolutionary War, and oh so much more – would spend his life wearing a dunce cap.)

By the way, Trump has made two “arguments” for why he won’t debate as promised on ABC.  He’s said that he agreed to debate President Biden, who is no longer running, and also because he’s in litigation against ABC, it would be a conflict of interest to debate on ABC.  Neither “argument” has even the slight merit.  A journalist tracked down the agreement both President Biden and Trump signed to debate and posted the document online – nowhere in it does it mention either Joe Biden or even Trump. It only gives conditions that a candidate would have to pass to qualify being on the debate stage.  If a third party candidate met those condition, he or she would be included – though the conditions would be very difficult, and none do qualify currently.  As for Trump’s lawsuit, I tracked down dates – and Trump filed his suit against ABC (and George Stephanopoulos) in March…and agreed to debate in May!  Meaning, of course, that – since May comes after March on pretty much every calendar -- debating on ABC is not and never has been a conflict for Trump.  What it is, however, is an excuse.  Along with his excuse about only agreeing to debate President Biden.  Which leads to the whole “Trump is a coward” gambit.

For all the reasons noted, though, assuming that there is going to be a debate (which is the working premise we’re going with here), there are two possibilities:  that it will be held as scheduled on ABC, or it will be held on Fox as Trump is now suggesting, but with major rules changes.

I think most likely the debate will stay on ABC as signed and agreed to.  That seems more probable to me because the Harris campaign will insist on it, and for all those reason mentioned, Trump will ultimately have to accept it, or risk the “coward” tag and risk losing the close battleground states.  Besides, if he does poorly, it will give him an out for whining.

That said, I don’t dismiss the serious possibility that the Harris campaign will not want to lose the opportunity to debate Trump, even on Fox, and therefore will agree to it.  If so, however, I doubt she’ll agree to Trump’s terms, but instead will say “I’ll debate you on your home turf, but with the rules we agreed to.”

The alternative to all this, of course, is whether or not the Harris campaign refuses to accept any changes from the agreement.  It’s understandable to see why they might not – if Trump stays away, it lets them paint him, accurately, as a coward.  If they do go that way, my deep hope is that they insist on showing up on ABC for questions alone…but only if the network leaves an empty podium on stage, which they may not.  But without that empty podium, then her appearance would just be a long interview.  That has benefits, but nothing like the visceral image all night of Trump’s empty podium.  That’s a photograph that would travel throughout every nook of the country and around the world.  So, I hope they stick strong to insisting on the empty podium, as she’s said.

While I do think there’s a good chance Trump will show up on ABC, if he doesn’t the question will be which to do – answer questions alone opposite an empty podium, or show up on Fox to debate Trump there, though with the original, agreed-to rules?

There is value to both.  The former paints a clear picture of the supposedly-strong bully as a coward, too scared to debate a black woman.  The latter allows Kamala Harris the opportunity to show Trump as the racist, dystopian, pathological liar fascist he is.

There is value to both.  But while there is more risk to having the debate, I think there is much more upside.

Yes, of course, Trump will lie throughout the night.  But Kamala Harris is a career prosecutor – the elected D.A. of San Francisco, and the twice-elected Attorney General of California.  Prosecuting perjurers is what she does.  She will be able to do what Joe Biden couldn’t.  Yes, Trump will lie, all night.  And I’m sure she’ll start every response, “That was a lie.  Here’s reality.”  All night, that was a lie, that was a lie, that was a lie.  And at one point, she may even put on her prosecutors hat and say, “In court, we tell jurors that if a witness lies once, you can assume they lie all the time.  And ladies and gentleman, you don’t even have to assume it will Donald Trump – he lies all the time.”

Further, she will laugh at his answers during the debate, and he himself has said publicly – even just weeks ago at a rally – how he really, really, really hates being laughed at.  (His niece, the psychologist Dr. Mary Trump, has elected why he hates being laughed at, from a famous family incident when he was a boy.)  And that will get under his skin.  As will her regularly tell him that what he said was a lie and wrong.  He hates being told he was wrong.  It will get deeply under his skin.  But what will most get under his skin is standing next to a black woman debating him.  Prosecuting him.  Because his life now – and risk of prison – is full of black women prosecuting him, having his freedom in their hands:  Letitia James, Fani Willis, Judge Tanya Chutkan.  A Black woman, standing next to him all night, who he is on the record saying he didn’t know she was Black.  And you know that will come up.  It’s very difficult to imagine Trump handling it together during the entire debate without becoming what he always accuses Black reporters of being when they ask him a hard question – nasty.  And then going farther than that, deep into dark, bleak, lost and dystopian.

Trump being Trump.