The Case for Jim Jordan

First, a disclaimer:

No, I do not think Jim Jordan should be Speaker of the House.  Jim Jordan is an awful person, an awful legislator and would be utterly, gut-wrenchingly awful as Speaker.  He was involved as a co-conspirator with the Insurrection to overthrow the government on January 6.  He is currently involved in trying to undermine democracy in his ongoing actions as chairman of House Judiciary Committee and as a member of the House Oversight Committee.  And before being elected to Congress, he turned a blind eye to sexual abuse when told about it as an assistant coach of the Ohio State wrestling team, and later refused to testify when the state of Ohio held a hearing on the subject.  Jim Jordan has no business being Speaker of the House.

But reality often rears its ugly head, and at the moment, there are only two people who have announced their candidacy for the job, so he has as good a chance as anyone in the GOP.  So, are there any positives that could come from such a perverse outcome?  Happily, oh, my, yes.

Which brings us, therefore to second point, and the main one at hand. 

If the worst happens, and the Republicans vote for Jim Jordan to become Speaker of the House --

He will have to give up his chairmanship of the House Judiciary Committee, as well as stop serving on the committee. 

Jordan will also have to quit his seat on the House Oversight Committee.

Additionally, as Speaker, he will now have to find a way to pass a budget bill that would be able to pass the Democratic-led Senate and be signed by President Biden, or else the government will shut down, something the country has always show it absolutely hates.  And given how vocal and extreme-right Jordan is, and was willing to overthrow the government, it seems near-impossible that Jordan will push for anything even close to reasonable, removing any wiggle room for Republicans to put the blame on anyone else.  And so, not only will Republicans get the blame for shutting down the government, but most of that blame will fall on Jordan, since not only did the preceding Speaker Kevin McCarthy reach an agreement with Democrats to keep the country open, but Jordan as the de facto leader of the GOP caucus blocking passage would be the only thing in the House that has changed since the Continuing Resolution was passed.

Further, if for some ghastly reason a budget bill can’t get passed, and the government is shut down with no end in sight, with a Speaker Jordan getting the blame, it doesn’t seem unreasonable to at least consider that the few moderate Republicans will realize this is disastrous for both the country and their party, and he might have to be replaced, perhaps in some GOP deal with Democrats.

Eventually, of course, a budget bill will have to pass.  And if a reasonable budget bill (one that can also pass the Senate and be signed by President Biden) does pass while Jordan is Speaker -- whether it avoids a government shutdown or occurs during one – the Chaos Caucus on the extreme right would seemingly be just as outraged by this as they were when former Speaker McCarthy reached a Continuing Resolution with Democrats, an act that led to him being replaced as Speaker.  Which would suggest they they would again, for the same reason, put forth the same motion to vacate Jordan as Speaker.

But let's make a big leap and consider that once the budget bill is passed (whenever that occurs), and even assume that a Speaker Jordan survives that, what he then will be facing is being in charge of coordinating the House Republicans, which at present seems an unmanageable task.  Not just because the House GOP is currently out-of-control, but all the more problematic because Jordan himself is as far from being a moderating, conciliatory, unifying figure as exists in Congress.  Indeed, Jim Jordan has yet to sponsor a single bill that has become law during his 17 years in the House!  He exists to be an opposition figure.  To imagine that he – Jim Jordan – will unite the extreme-right, conservatives and moderate Republicans in the House to agree on any legislation pushes the limits of credibility.  It seems far more likely that any legislation that a Speaker Jordan does try to move forward – like on abortion, guns, the environment, gay marriage, health care, and more (issues that polls show the American public heavily favor Democratic views) will be so far-right extreme that it will cause huge problems for the Republican Party in the coming election as “This is what the GOP stands for and wants to pass if Trump is elected, and Republicans regain control of the Senate with Jim Jordan as Speaker.” 

For all this, it appears likely that the Republican Party under a Speaker Jordan will appear to the public to be not only as deeply dysfunctional as they did the day they took control and required 15 ballots to elect their House leader who they later threw out, but so much more extreme-right fascist than the vast majority of Americans, which is what caused the mythical Red Wave in 2022 to vanish. 

And finally, given how dysfunctional the GOP House is right now, and that's before “opposition figure” Jim Jordan is Speaker, one can only imagine how dysfunctional it will be after, should he get the job.  Which seriously raises the question of whether he can last out the rest of the term before being replaced, especially given that the Republican’s “Any one member can call for the Speakership to be vacated” rule still exists.  And so, at some point, he could be voted out, like former GOP Speaker McCarthy.  But though it’s possible that that rule gets dropped in the current Republican effort to find someone willing to become Speaker, that only leads to another problematic result with a related, disastrous outcome for Jordan --

-- and it's that the dysfunctional, Insurrectionist Jim Jordan stays Speaker and is therefore seen during the coming election as the face of nihilistic Republicans in Congress.  But since the GOP only has a razor-thin 5-seat majority, and there are 14 Republicans in the House who represent districts won by Joe Biden in 2020 and would be at serious risk of losing those seats and, consequently, flipping the House Democratic (not to mention all the other GOP seats at risk from such a dysfunctional, extreme GOP), that too would result in removing Jim Jordan as Speaker when the new Congress meets in 15 months.

Which leads to the disastrous outcome in both cases for Jordan:

Once Jim Jordan leaves the Speakership – whether in 15 months because of national election or much sooner by Republican House action – it is improbable that, being so discredited, he would move down a notch to become House Leader for the GOP.  Which would make him just a basic member of the party.  In fact, he might even be so discredited at that point he wouldn’t be named a ranking member on any committee.  Further, when past Speakers lost the job, they either (like Nancy Pelosi) did become their party’s leader and subsequently returned to being Speaker or traditionally left Congress entirely, rather than just be a basic “back bench” member without authority. (Like what Republicans Paul Ryan and John Boehner did, retiring, among pretty much all others.)  Nancy Pelosi is the only former Speaker I can think of who didn’t – but that’s specifically because she herself gave up the job voluntarily to become “Leader Emeritus” to help guide the next generation.  And no, that’s not Jim Jordan.

Which means – a Speaker Jim Jordan would seem likely to leave Congress entirely in no more than 15 months if politics play out as they appear to. 

Of course, if any former Speaker decides to stick around in the House merely to be nothing more than an “opposition figure,” it would be Jim Jordan.  But it would most probably be a vastly weakened Jordan, emasculated with little authority or ability to do much but yell and raise money -- yell and raise money as the man seen as losing the House for Republicans, and (God willing), helping Republicans lose the presidency.

And that’s if he survives winning his seat back, after all that anarchic dysfunction.  He may, it's a very Republican district – though he never ran from a position of disgrace before.

In any event, even if Jordan wins re-election and decides to stay in Congress without much if any power, as horrific as Jim Jordan being voted Speaker of the House by Republicans would be…there is at least a very cheery, extremely big -- and I think, likely -- potential upside.

And yes, I know this is just my meaningless opinion on the matter.  But it's offered with a lot of supporting reasons to back it up.

So, as much as there might be a great many of the Republican base ready to rejoice if Jim Jordan become Speaker of the House, they very well might find themselves discovering the legendary Law of Unintended Consequences.