The Book of Revelations

The other day, I had a revelation.  Like most revelations, it’s more an opinionated observation than the provable end result of fact, so it’s pretty much meaningless as anything substantive.  It only becomes meaningful if it turns out to be true.

It came about while watching news coverage of problems that Ron DeSantis is having with his campaign.  And a lot of that overlapped with things I’ve written here in the past, most notably that while DeSantis is hugely popular in Florida, he doesn’t appear to have extended that popularity in the rest of the country.  Even Red states aren’t passing all the most extreme laws that they’re doing in Florida.  Many are passing one or another of them, but none have gone so far off the extreme right edge that make fascism appear almost moderate.

But that, to me, is bordering on obvious.  The revelation was something different.  It’s this –

Ron DeSantis is only 44 years old.  If he had been patient, forgotten about 2024, stayed quiet, fully supported Trump or whoever the Republican nominee for president would be, he stood a good chance of eventually becoming the GOP nominee himself in 2028 and very possibly president, but he’s thrown all of that away and probably ruined his political career.

Trump announced his candidacy for president early.  And being in the race, he was the odds-on favorite to get the nomination, even if indicted.  Even if multiple-indicted.  I’m sure the thinking of DeSantis was that being indicted would keep Trump from getting the nomination, but even if so, the Florida governor’s analysis was misguided.

Consider:  with Trump in the race against DeSantis, it doesn’t take any brilliance to know that Trump would do what he always does, and go Full Trump ridiculing his opponent mercilessly.  And not only can most humans not go to the malignant narcissistic depth Trump does to attack others, but within the Republican Party, the base worships Trump, and if another Republican attacks him like he smears others, that Republican would be hated and buried and never get the nomination.

But let’s say the unlikely happens, and Trump did get one-too many indictments and even is convicted, and DeSantis beats Trump for the GOP nomination.  Trump, as we all know – and DeSantis should know -- is a malignant narcissist, and that means he destroys what he can’t get.  So, he would go out of his way to ruin the man who defeated him for the nomination, even if that person is the standard bearer of his own party.  Trump might run as a third-party candidate, he might tell his voters to stay at home, he might…oh, who knows, he’s Trump, I can’t go that deep into hell.  But the point is that he’d undermine DeSantis who would lose.

But then let’s fantasize that Trump actually and horrifyingly wins in 2024.  All that would do to DeSantis is push him back four years, because Trump can only serve four more years.  And in 2028, DeSantis would still only be a near-childlike 49 years old.

Or let’s fantasize that someone else got the nomination in 2024, rather than Trump (or DeSantis).  Given how the GOP has been pushing deep-fascist positions that appear to be abhorred by the public, like abortion bans, continued support of AR-15s, banning books, election denials, extremist candidates and more, it seems like a Republican candidate would have a solid chance of losing in the coming election.  But – let’s say the Republican wins…and wins re-election in 2028.  Ron DeSantis still would only be 53 years old in 2032.  That’s a quarter of a  century younger than both Trump and Joe Biden are.  And again, that’s waiting eight years.

All Ron DeSantis had to do was stay popular in Florida, where he won by 19 points last year, the biggest GOP margin in the state’s modern history.  Stay conservative, continue to support Trump as Trump-light, which Trump loved and could promote as his political heir.  Just support whoever the nominee was, and be seen as the good, loyal, conservative, Trump-supported, wildly popular governor of a critical state – and the home of Mar-a-Lago.  Keep building up his profile and national acceptance.

But instead –

Ron DeSantis decided he wanted to take on Trump now.  And therefore had to out-Trump Trump.  Had to out-fascist fascists.  And so, he passed the country’s most draconian abortion law.  And passed an open-carry gun law that doesn’t even require a permit or training.  And passed laws to ban books.  And passed laws telling teachers what they couldn’t teach.  And passed laws to not permit sex and gender being taught in schools – where it was not being taught, and just extended the law all the way through high school (where I think most kids have figured out sex and gender).  And opposed aid to Ukraine, which was immediately ridiculed by most Republican officials and made him look out of his depth.  And…and…and took on Mickey Mouse – for merely exercising its First Amendment right to say it opposed the “Don’t Say Gay” Bill.  And then got outmaneuvered by Disney.  And pushed back even more, against the largest employer in the state and centerpiece of tourism, the state’s biggest industry – making him anathema to big Republican donors for who government attacks on business goes against every commandment in their Big Business bible.

When all he had to do be on track to become president was pretty much nothing.

Instead, he’s made himself a horror to much of the country, and almost a joke of over-the-top, out-of-control fascist incompetence.

The last time that I saw a Republican candidate collapse this early against Trump was Jeb Bush (sorry, I mean Jeb!), another Florida governor.  There must be something in the humidity there.

This isn’t to say that in time – since he’s still very young – DeSantis can redefine himself.  The problem for him, though, is that unlike most candidates who try to whitewash their problematic positions, DeSantis doesn’t just have hideous fascist positions the vast majority of the public hates – he passed them as laws.  He’s shown on the record who he is, and what he would do if elected to the presidency.

And the thing is, I don’t think he’s stopped.  I get the sense that DeSantis might see himself in such a hole that the only way out is to keep digging.  And keep doubling-down.  And tripling-down.

Yes, Ron DeSantis is having trouble with his presidential campaign, which is all the worse because it hasn’t even been announced.  But worse, I believe he has trouble not just with his campaign, but with his presidential dreams, period.

I have no idea who will get the Republican nomination for president. It certainly could be Ron DeSantis.  That seems unlikely to me, but given today's GOP, that's not unreasonable to at least think.  But even if he gets the nomination, he hasn't shown that his act even comes close to playing outside of Florida.  Which means he'd lose.  Which means his presidential dreams would likely be over, at age 45.

At this point, it seems that his only political future is being elected senator.  And that’s no small thing.  But Florida has two Republican senators.  And that certainly isn't the direction Jeb! took, and just faded into obscurity.  And worse, it’s not what Ron DeSantis wants.  He wants to be President of the United States.  And I think that dream is gone.