Taking Comfort in Numbers

​This is proof of absolutely nothing. And I fully know it is proof of absolutely nothing.  But still, proof aside, there was this headline yesterday --

Once again: this is proof of nothing.  What it is, though, is a small level of personal comfort for standing far out on the edge a limb.  When I wrote my article here back in early November explaining why I believed that Democrats would pick up 30-40 seats in the House during the Mid-Terms (offering around a half-dozen reasons to defend why I thought that), I knew it risked me being seen as even more foolhardy than usual -- especially since all actual experts at the time were writing how Texas gerrymandering five seats for MAGOPs could guarantee they hold the House of Representatives, and since (as I wrote in the article) that I had wanted to write my prediction several months earlier, but knew it would be seen as transcending ludicrous and risked discrediting my sanity.  So, I held off until early November.

And despite holding off, I still got a lot of kind-hearted, nurturing eye-rolls from that November column, the kind of look from an adult that a child gets when explaining his theory of gravity that has something to do with stuffed animals, snowfall and his favorite TV shows.  My favorite response I got was from a fairly eminent fellow in his field who decided to go pithy and politely replied, very simply, "Bold prediction."

For that matter, I also stand by my other predication -- based on Democrats picking up an average of 16 points in every Special Election there's been since Trump took office -- that MAGOPs gerrymandering their states might backfire.  A process that has occurred enough that there is a name for it -- dummymandering.  In fact, this number has been growing:  in the last two state Special Elections (in Kentucky and Iowa), Democrats gained 26 and 27 points.

And I can only repeat again -- this is proof of zero.  I could still be totally wrong, no matter how many reasons I gave.  (I don't think I'm wrong, I stand by all my reasons, but however many reasons I give, I'm just guessing from my amateur status.)  But -- it's nice and comforting to know that I'm no longer alone.  And if I crash to the ground from my tree limb, there will at least be other bodies to cushion my fall.  

It's nice too that if there are going to be predictions by experts, that their numbers are going in this direction, and not the other way.

For whatever it’s worth, the veteran expert quoted in this news articles, is former NBC political analyst and Congressional aide Chris Matthews.  I don’t know what his record is on election prediction.  But he is not alone among other experts who I’ve heard say this now.  He’s just the latest…

(You can read the full article here.)

The main thing from this article, though -- the most important -- is that I’m sure MAGOPs in Congress see all these stories and know down to the decimal all the approval polls for Trump.  And they must be terrified, or at the very least seriously concerned.  Indeed, it's likely why so many have been saying they're not running for re-election.  And given his malignant narcissism, it must be driving Trump crazy (or, more accurately, crazier), especially since we now hear him talking about impeachment again if Democrats take control of the House.  And it is most surely going to get even worse for them all as Trump's dementia worsens (which it will because dementia is degenerative), he falls asleep more often in public, and he acts even more out of control than he is now which, scarily, is not only possible but probable.  And as inflation rises, prices keep going up, more U.S. citizens get beaten and shot by ICE, and Trump's approval plummets.