Special Elections Again Go Special

I wrote this article late Tuesday evening, when the final Georgia run-off results were in, though most news reporting hand gone to bed for the night.  But I decided to hold off on posting it because it seemed that Trump's malignant narcissistic annihilation war crime screed had more importance on a large, historic scale.  It was still a toss-up decision because Georgia and other election results that night were far more significant than they might seem at first glance.  And they seemed very significant at first glance.  Because they were.

Earlier in the day, on Tuesday afternoon, I responded to a comment to my on Facebook page that it was ludicrous for reporters to be suggesting (as they were) that a Democrat could win in such an incredibly heavy Red district.  The perspective of that was all wrong, thinking there might be a flipped seat, and if Democrat Shawn Harris din't win or come close that would be disappointing for Democrats.

The 14th Congressional District is considered the most-Red district in Georgia. Trump won it by 37 points.  But if they could cut the margin to 20 points, well, that I wrote, would be an amazing pick-up of 17 points in a deeply Red district, slightly above the average they’d been gaining in every Special Election.  If Shawn Harris comes closer – well, that, I wrote, would be incredibly stunning and massive.

They did the incredibly stunning and massive.

The Democrat lost.  But only by just under 12 points!  That’s an otherworldly gain of 25 points.  But not just a gain of 25 points…a gain of 25 points in the most Red district in Georgia!

MAGOPs should be terrified. 

When Democrats can pick up 25 points in the most Red district in Georgia, this is a disaster for any "leans Red" district in the country.  For that matter, borders on a problem any “Safe Red” strict.  Which is a huge problem for the RNC, because it means they can’t even take many “Safe Red” districts for granted and may have to put at least some money in those race.  And put a lot of money in “Leans Red.”

Keep in mind that this was only a Special Election to fill a seat vacated by Marjorie Taylor Greene.  It will be up again in just seven months, when retired Brigadier General Shawn Harris says he'll run for the seat again.  It will still be a deeply Red district.  But it will also be with constituents living through seven more months of potentially rising gas prices, rising grocery prices, broken healthcare, the ongoing results of a disastrous war in Iran, unpopular abusive immigration policies, an unqualified incompetent cabinet, and Trump's dementia which is degenerative -- in a district that lost 25 points and, at least right now, only has a 12 point advantage, which is "Very Safe Red," but "Leans Red." 

Keep in mind, too, that this comes shortly after a Trump’s own very Red district in Florida flipped for a Democrat in a statehouse race.  That was a gain for Democrats of 21 points.

And keep in mind further, that in Wisconsin on Tuesday, Democrat Chris Taylor won the Wisconsin Supreme Court election. In Wisconsin, statewide races are often won by tiny margins. Chris Taylor won by 20 points!  This gives Democrats a pickup on the Supreme Court and now will hold a 5-2 margin.  Until only a couple years ago, MAGOPs had a 4-3 edge.  Further, Democrats also flipped the mayoral race in Red-stronghold Waukesha.  The gain of points wasn't huge, but still substantive -- a pick-up of 9 points over 2024 when Trump ran, and a pick-up of 12 points from 2022 when Ron Johnson ran for the Senate.

To be clear, none of these Special Elections – or court race -- inherently will translate the same results in the general Mid-Term Elections.  The candidates are different, the turnout will be different.  And it’s eight months away.  That said, for all we know, it could be worse for MAGOPs by then.  All we can say, though, is that MAGOP should be terrified.

And that includes Texans in their gerrymandered districts.  As I wrote here back in July of last year, the Texas effort to gerrymander districts in their favor risked backfiring on them, which is called “dummmandering.”  This is where the vote for the opposition party is so big that they not only win (using Texas as an example) their own “Leans Blue” seats, but also win the formerly “Safe Red” seats, because the MAGOP took voters out of that “Safe Red” district to add them to purple or “Leans Blue” districts.  So, if Democrats do keep picking up their average of 16-point gains – let alone, more, considering they picked up 25 points in an incredibly safe Red district in Georgia – almost every seat gerrymandered by the MAGOP is at risk.

Again, none of this may happen.  If all falls into the “Who knows?” category.

But the one thing we know for absolute certain is that whatever happens in eight months, right now virtually every MAGOP running for re-election is deeply concerned.  Or should be.  And the party has to spend money and resources on all of them.

How different will the landscape be in eight months?  Well, that defaults back to the “Who knows?” answer.  But –

I would suggest that because Trump won’t be on the ballot for the Mid-Terms, which will lose MAGA voters who are uninterested in politics and only come out to vote for Trump.  And because gas prices continue to rise astronomically, and grocery prices keep rising.  And polls show the public hates Trump’s actions on immigration.  And because the public hate’s Trump’s war of choice in Iran which doesn’t appear to have any satisfactory resolution in sight for him – especially considering that he ran on no wars.  And because Trump, the leader of the MAGOP – who the whole party in Congress pays loyal fealty to and has enabled -- has an approval of just 34% -- for now.  And because the three groups that Trump relied for unexpected gains to win in 2024 are all fleeing him in manic droves:  Independents at just 25% approval, young voters at a horrific 20%, and Hispanics at a dismal 34%, which is essentially the same low number he got when losing in 2016. And because Trump has no one around him qualified and competent to help him out of his disastrous problems, fixing his messes seems a high hurdle – for all these reasons and more -- I would suggest that the future for the MAGOP in the Mid-Terms appears to look (at its most optimistic) more problematic than it stands right now.

And so, for a well-needed break to soothe the savage beast, we offer some inner peace with the beauty of fine art. We take you to the Chicago Art Institute, and a work in its collection by Katsushika Hokusai, from his series, Thirty-Six Views of Mount Fuji.