"So, What's on My Schedule Today?"

Today, Trump has his pre-sentencing interview with his probation officer.

Before going any further, consider for a moment that last sentence.  Trump, about to be named the Republican Party’s nominee for president, has a probation officer.  And has to attend his court-ordered interview.  And, if given probation, will have to regularly check in with his probation officer.  I’ll give you a moment to let that sink in and adjust to the reality.

Okay, moving on.

For the longest time, like most people, I’m sure, I’ve thought it unlikely that Trump would be given a prison sentence if ever convicted for anything.  Beyond putting a former president and current presidential candidate in jail, there’s the logistics and also (in this particular felony conviction) the reality that it’s a low-level felony where first time offenders are rarely imprisoned.  I’ve thought that home confinement was more likely than jail – ideally with his mobile phone and Internet conditions removed.  Though probation seemed most probable, but with heavy conditions imposed with gag orders and a tight schedule for checking in with his probation supervisor.

I’m now not so sure.

I’m not saying that I think Trump will be jailed.  I still think it unlikely.  But just that, now, if he does get a sentence that includes jail, I’m at the point where I will not be surprised.

Consider:  the probation officer will be putting together a report that can help the judge decide what sentence should be administered.  The information includes this face-to-face interview, but also a personal history make-up, interviews with others, evaluations and more.  But at the heart of the interview today is trying to find out if Trump has any remorse or is likely to be a repeat offender, or if he will be a threat to others in any way.

Now, to be fair, not showing remorse is not a critical issue.  If anyone convicted of a felony is going to appeal their conviction, it’s not unreasonable for them to say they are appeal because they were not guilty and therefore have nothing to be remorseful about.  that said, claiming that the trial was a scam and rigged is another matter entirely, and  that's something Trump has relentlessly claimed during and since the trial -- and may well be asked about that.  Furthermore, given that his appeal has not been heard yet, and so he is officially a convicted felon, then recidivism and continued threat are very real issues to consider.

And, man, is Trump ever in deep trouble over that.  Posting tweets, getting interviewed on national television and making speeches spewing out his thirst for revenge and retribution against all those who have acted against him, and stirring up his supporters to be as revenge-minded as him, has to be a flashing red-light warning sign for any probation officer.

Also problematic for Trump is that the probation officer also may make a psychological assessment of Trump’s mental state.  Putting aside his paraphasia, the condition of making up non-existent words, and his exploding into rants, just this weekend Trump made the delusional statement that President Biden is so weak he falls out of airplanes and helicopters.  And yesterday, Trump went so far off-script during a stump speech that he began ranting about boats sinking, shark attacks and choosing between being eaten by a shark or electrocution.  (Weirdly, the same thing he went off on a tangent and ranted about eight months earlier in Iowa!)  More to the point, this is the mental problem that Trump faces today with his probation officer.

Add to this that the probation officer interviewing Trump who he knows has recommendation authority over his sentence is a woman.  I have no doubt she'll be fair.  I have an equal lack of doubt that the one-on-one experience will be hellish for Trump.

And add to this that Michael Cohen got sentenced to three years in jail for essentially committing the exact same crime...on behalf of Trump.

Former U.S. Attorney Barbara McQuade appeared on MSNBC the other day and was asked about the kind of questions a probation office will use to find out whether Trump might violate rules of probation.

"I think he will rely on objective factors,” McQuade made clear, “but I think some of the questions he will be asked is, ‘Do you understand that you may need to report to me on a regular basis? Do you understand you will be prohibited from associating with anyone with a criminal record?’

McQuade was also asked what Trump might argue his sentence should be, and she said that that might be a stumbling block that the official will pass along to the judge. "It is hard to imagine Donald Trump, himself, will agree to some of the terms."

In fact, the challenge for Trump is that even if he is only put on probation, that might not be the breeze it appears at first glance.  Because some of the standard conditions that are regularly imposed on probation might be a problematic hurdle for Trump to comply with.

"Often times, someone like Donald Trump will probably not have great restrictions on his travel,” Ms. McQuaid noted, “but he may have restrictions that include not associating with people with criminal convictions. For someone like Donald Trump who has people he has associated with who have criminal convictions, Steve Bannon, for example. Peter Navarro. That could be challenging to him. If he is not willing to comply with those kinds of conditions, his alternative is prison."

His alternative is prison.  And that’s just from one requirement put on Trump for him to adhere to if he’s kept out of jail and put on probation, and he wants to stay out of jail.

Which brings us back to my original point.  I don’t think Trump will be sentenced to jail.  But if he is, I won’t be surprised.