Silence is Golden

Yesterday, Israel and Gaza reached a ceasefire agreement in their war, following the massacre attack on Israel led by Hamas, which preceded an unremitting bombardment on Gaza by Israel.  The agreement was essentially the exact same one put on the table by President Biden, and was negotiated by Biden and Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, which representatives of the incoming Trump administration – there, as President Biden said, so that they would be on-board in implementing the agreement.

And there was Trump, crowing about the agreement and doing his best to take credit for it, because that’s what a Trump does.

Two things should be noted: 

First, that unlike the Iran hostage situation in 1980, when a deal was negotiated by the Carter Administration but behind the scenes, Ronald Reagan and his team got Iran to hold off announcing the agreement for days until after Reagan took office – this ceasefire between Israel and Gaza was settled before the change in office, and while Joe Biden was still president.  I’m sure Israel and Trump-acolyte Benjamin Netanyahu could have held it up for five days, but he didn’t.  So, the deal took place under the authority of those who negotiated it, which is the Biden Administration.

And second, because Trump is Trump, and he’s been dancing around trying to brag about the agreement and take as much credit for it being settled as he can, despite almost no involvement, anything that goes wrong with the ceasefire during the next four years will be 100% on him.

And that’s the problem for Trump.  Being Trump.  Because so much can go wrong during the next four years.  Put it in this perspective:  for nothing to go wrong means that Israel and Gaza with Hamas will live in peace and harmony for the next four years.  That borders on the ludicrously improbable.  I hope the perfect peace holds, but hope is a thin, gossamer thread to hold onto in the Middle East.

For starters, there is so much than can go wrong just ensuring that the ceasefire agreement gets settled – which is no sure thing.  It's wonderful that there's a deal.  And wonderful that it's set for hostages to return home.  But for the ceasefire to be fully accomplished, there are contingencies on contingencies on contingencies.  And if any of them aren’t met, the deal (that Trump is swaggering around as settling) will fall apart.  Further, as right-wing as Netanyahu is, there is a strong, even more extreme-right wing in his party that's against a ceasefire.  Moreover, as I write this, the Israeli security council hasn't yet met to vote on the deal.

But then, let’s assume that each intricate contingency is met, everything is approved and the ceasefire becomes a done deal.  This only creates a ceasefire in the war – it is not a Peace Accord between Israel and Gaza/Hamas.  And as I said, anyone relying on a foundation of there being no further conflict between Israel and Gaza/Hamas is shouldering a brutally heavy burden.

And if there is any further conflict (“if” being used here as a phenomenally flexible word…), then it will all be on the head of the man who was promenading around claiming credit for ending it all.  When he wasn’t even involved.  So, Trump doesn’t even get any real credit for the ceasefire, he only gets credit for shouting to his believers that he gets credit.  But he’ll get actual criticism from everyone for it starting up again under his watch, after him saying it was settled, and (worse) when he likely will be fully behind giving even more support to Netanyahu than he’s had up to now, going back on the attack – something we can expect since that’s what Trump said today.

And all this, Trump put on himself.  Because he’s Trump being Trump.  And he needs to have everyone think the he knows everything, is right about everything, can fix everything and forget how actually incompetent his and has dementia.

Just Trump being Trump.

"Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than speak and remove all doubt."

​-- Abraham Lincoln, father of the Republican Party