Rock Meet Hard Place

There were two different stories coming out of the MAGOP yesterday after the presidential debate.  One was an acknowledgement that Trump did horribly, the other that he did great and won the debate.  Both are problematic for the party.

MAGOP officials and people on Fox who went around raving about how great Trump did, and that he won the debate (including Trump who claimed that unnamed “polls” had him getting 90% of the votes and 71% as winning) are either self-delusional or trying to trick the base.  And operating under the umbrella of delusion is never a good way to campaign.

(For the record, the CNN poll had Kamala Harris winning the debate by 63-37%.  This is huge in a race that is close enough to be considered basically tied.  Further, in presidential debates, poll analyst Nate Silver wrote that when there’s a winner, the average is usually by 18 points.  So, winning by 26 points is significant.)

When you go around believing or trying to convince others to believe that your guy did tremendously, when reality is the polar opposite, you not only create a false sense of security, but you become unable to address whatever problems that exist and can’t fix them.

On the other hand, the acknowledgement that Trump did horribly is problematic in its own way.   There are three hurdles here.

First, of course, is the reality that admitting you have a problem means…you have a problem!  Now, normally, admitting a problem is a good thing because, as noted above, it means you can try to fix it.  But that’s where the second hurdle here comes in.

Most of the acknowledgements that Trump did so poorly came from off-the-record comments (which makes it harder to address and fix things), though surprisingly there actually was a bit of honesty on-air, as well.  Even on Fox.  In fact, when Trump called in to Fox the morning after, he was so upset about the commentary right after the debate the night before that he told the morning hosts that if there was ever a debate on Fox (which he also said he was not inclined to do), he said that he didn’t want to the two people who have been mentioned as possible debate moderators, Bret Baier and Martha MacCallum, who had been critical – and accurate -- about his performance.  Instead, Trump said he would accept Sean Hannity, Jesse Watters or Laura Ingraham.  Which pretty much nails down that there won’t be a Fox debate. 

By the way, while Jesse Watters did his best Jesse Watters imitation after the debate and said how well Trump did, even he was aghast at Trump’s performance and let some of that slip through, saying “This was rough,” and adding that anyone who actually had watched the debate wouldn’t think “any of these people won.”

The problem with this honesty is that nothing will likely be done about it.  So, you’re left with public criticism and nothing else, and so the only thing that criticism can do is linger, fester and feed on itself.

Compare this to the reaction among Democrats after President Biden showed his 81-year-old age at his debate and had disastrous results.  No Democrats claimed that he won – even when polls showed that Trump didn’t do especially well either.  While many Democrats did want the President to stay on the ticket, they didn’t delude themselves into thinking he did well.  They just thought he still had more to offer than other possible replacements and would do better than Trump in the campaign.  But more were outspoken in their concern – in public and (importantly) to Biden directly.  And in the end, after much external and internal discussion, President Biden concluded that it would be best for him to, unprecedentedly, drop out of the race.  He endorsed Kamala Harris, the party coalesced around her, and the Democratic campaign was revitalized.  For the presidential ticket and down-ballot races.

You don’t see that same dynamic happening with Trump.  And you won’t see that happening with Trump.  It’s hard to imagine that anyone in the MAGOP is going to suggest publicly that Trump should drop out.  It is even more improbable to think any MAGOP official would suggest such a thing even in private to Trump.

Now, to be clear, Trump still has massive support in the MAGOP, he is still basically tied with Kamala Harris – ahead in some polls, behind in others – and could very well win.  The problem is that they don’t know how he will be a week or month from today, but right now he’s still their beloved convicted felon and adjudicated rapist.

And further, it’s myopic because their concern is only on Trump, and not how the down-ballot races are impacted by how he is perceived by the public, even if he’s able to win.  Because if he does win, it’s not a result of his “popularity” (since, after all, he’s always lost the popular vote), but due to the Electoral College.  So, how he’ll be in a week or month from today is meaningful for that, as well

And that leads to the third hurdle among those MAGOPs who acknowledge Trump did badly.  It’s that they pretty much are acknowledging the wrong thing.

Trump didn’t have a horrible debate just because he had an off-night, or got triggered by Kamala Harris and took the bait, or is old.  All that is true.  But the problem is that a great many psychologists and psychiatrists have written that Trump shows signs of early dementia.  And it’s degenerative.  As psychologist Dr. Jack Gartner from Johns Hopkins has said, he tells people to look at Trump today, because it’s the best they will ever see him.  Trump is not getting better.  And not acknowledging that in the MAGOP – even while admitting he had a terrible night and is old – is putting a Band-Aid on a person with pneumonia.

A RawStory headline yesterday said that GOP operatives are now, after the debate, trashing Trump behind his back as being "old."

Note to GOP operatives: Trump has been "old" this entire campaign, and his main problem isn't being "old", but early dementia. "Old" is normal. Dementia is not.

(Furthermore, “behind the back” is exactly part of the problem as I noted above.  Doing it up front is attempting to resolve the problem.  Doing it behind the back is gossiping at a dinner party.) 

Trump could still win.  But last night at his horrible debate, unlike President Biden who has cognitive issues from being old, we were seeing Trump at the best he will ever be.

MAGOP can pretend Trump did great, or admit he did terribly and do nothing about it.  It’s a problem for them, either way.  Including if he wins, because dementia is degenerative.

At which point, if he wins, it’s a disastrous problem for all of us.