Putting the "Less" in History Lesson

This is a follow-up of sorts to my piece yesterday looking at the election results from Tuesday.  It comes from an exchange I had with a friend who's fairly insightful about such things, though is always a world-class cynic.  That doesn't mean he's wrong -- he's often right -- but his batting average is...well, flexible.  And always colored by his general cynicism.

Needless-to-say, he didn't agree with my take on things, though to my surprise he did think there were some good points. 

One thing he disagreed on was my comment about New Jersey being more purple than people think, including that before the current governor they had elected Republican Chris Christie twice.  And no Democratic governor had been re-elected in New Jersey in 44 years.  His point was that you have to look to the state legislature to see what a state is, and that New Jersey's had been Democratic for 20 years.  With that in mind, though, I said that if  you're going to use that argument as your base, then the lower house in Virginia had been Republican -- before the current makeup -- for the same 20 years.  Which means Virginia is not purple like pundits are saying, but Republican. In which case this loss was normal and to be expected.

He also compared Obamacare and the Reconciliation Bill, pointing out that even though Democrats passed the Affordable Care Act, they didn't really get credit for it, and got crushed in the mid-terms.  So, they shouldn't expect to get any credit if the Reconciliation Bill passes.  And furthermore, so much has been cut from it to weaken the thing.

I understood his point about Obamacare and the Reconciliation Bill – but honestly, I said I don’t think they’re comparable.  At the time, the Affordable Care Act was very controversial, and Republicans across the country were initially opposed to what they were calling “socialized medicine.”  However, polls today show that the public wildly favors what’s in the Reconciliation Bill and the Infrastructure Bill.  And even with all the cutbacks, it’s still around a $2 TRILLION expenditure to help people.  There’s a huge among of good in it for the public.  And further, Democrats can run on “Republicans unanimously voted to block this – elect us and we’ll give you all the rest that Republicans blockage made us cut out.”

Beyond these details, however, overall his major point -- which he's been saying for a long while, so I expected it -- was that history shows the party that just won a presidential election will lose in the mid-terms.  And he expects the Democrats to get pummeled.

History does does that the party who just won a presidential election will lose in the mid-terms.  And I'm a big lover of history.  But -- what I said to him, and have said previously, is that I don't think history if a factor in our current world of news here.

I have no idea what will happen in the mid-terms.  I fully recognize Democrats could be creamed.  Or not.  BUT – I strongly stand by my sense that “history” will not matter.  History and precedence was thrown out of the window with Trump.  And besides Trump, now toss in a once-in-100 years world pandemic.  “History” is in such a flux at the moment.  Whatever happens in the midterms – terrible or good – will be because of what happens over the next 12 months with the economy, jobs, pandemic, Reconciliation Bill, gerrymandering and if anything can be done with Voting Rights.  If all that turns out poorly, Democrats will get pummeled (though happily Biden will still be president…) – but if all that has an upturn, I think Democrats could do well, regardless of “history.”

But what "history" says?  Hey, in 2019 history said that there wouldn't be a world pandemic that would kill five million people.  History said that Americans would never elected in totally inexperienced TV host huckster as president.  History said that both parties in the U.S. Senate would defend their turf in the separation of powers against a president.  History said that both parties would be horrified by an insurrection to overthrow the government.

What "history" says just isn't playing a huge role in American society these days.

To be clear, I’m not advocating Democrats will win big, or even at all.  Just that what happens during the course of the next year is what matters BY FAR over everything else.  Whatever happens in the 2022 mid-terms, for both sides, good and bad, will be because of the pandemic, the economy, jobs, inflation the Reconciliation Bill and issues like that during the next 12 months.  Not because of "history."

Historical precedence is on a sabbatical at the moment.