Post Dated

There's a good article in yesterday's Washington Post about troubles in the MAGOP, ​which you can read here. Though it largely confirms what I've been writing on these pages, so I'm a bit biased.  Though it's good to see it discussed to a massively larger audience...

A few passages stand out, to save you longer reading.

"Surprisingly tough Tennessee election reveals House GOP has base problem"

It's great to see them say that, though in fairness there was nothing "surprising" about this result showing that the GOP has a base problem.  After all, that's why Democrats have averaged a 16-point gain across all the many Special Elections since Trump took office 10 months ago.

"'It’s me worried about many of my friends, who it will hurt — some people that only won by one or two or three points. And it’s me worrying about the majority,'” said Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R-New Jersey)."

His friends should be worried.  And not just his friends who won by "one or two or three points"!!!  Yesterday's election in Tennessee was for a DEEP RED district that Trump had won by 22.6 points -- and Democrats gained 13.7 points!  "One or two or three points"???  If that’s all he’s worrying about, he will be terrified about staying in the majority, once he takes a step back and looks at all the races.

“Gallup found a seismic drop in approval from Republican voters for the job performance of Congress, down to 23 percent. Back in July, more than 6o percent of Republican voters approved of the GOP-run House and Senate.”

Absolutely true and deeply problematic when the deeply loyal MAGOP have such a big drop within the party.  Though again, this was no surprise, since not only do readers here know about that from an article about it a week ago – but I also wrote about the AP-NORC poll three weeks ago that showed Trump’s approval in his own party dropped 13 points to 68%.

“That’s the type of drop that is usually accompanied by a calamitous event that is considered an act of betrayal by one’s own political party.”

I think I may have loved this sentence the most in the article.  Because it put the huge drop within the MAGOP in perspective.  And in what is devastating perspective.  "Usually accompanied by a calamitous event."  In life, this is known as Not a Good Thing.  In politics, which has a much shorter lifespan, this is known as a Reason to Leave Congress Early to Save Your Reputation. 

“Democrats estimate that about 70 House seats held by Republicans are more friendly than this Tennessee seat.”

Bingo!  No, Democrats won’t win all of them, or maybe even most.  But many are at risk, and it’s why my "out on the limb" prediction here a month ago is that Democrats will pick up 30-40 seats.  So, with as risky a guess as that had been, it was nice to see them provide this figure.  What actually happens a year from now, we'll find out.

It could be even worse for MAGOPs.  Not just with worsening problems, but Trump has dementia -- which the press is finally writing about -- and the condition is degenerative.