Polls Apart

While I pay attention to polls, I tend not to overemphasize them.  However, I do find them valuable when looking at how a specific poll has shifted or when when looking at what many polls says together.  I also limit my attention as much as possible to polls with top reputations.

The other day, a University of Maryland Critical Issues Poll released its results.  And while I don't know their reputation, I do know that the University of Maryland is the home base of Larry Sabato who is one of the best pollsters.  More to the point, what I found interesting are the things they were polling -- some typical, but some with a different perspective than most.

The focus they took was comparing results before the Democratic National Convention and after the Republican National Convention.  And overall, they were excellent results for Democrats.  Especially when you consider that this was done before the article in The Atlantic (since confirmed by four other publications) that was so damning to Trump about his dismissive reaction to the U.S. military,

Of most importance is that there was a shift of 10 points to Joe Biden among Independent voters, which is significant.  Trump had been leading by two points, but Biden is now up among independents by eight points.  And again, that's before this Trump military story.  Independents are what can change a razor thin race to a comfortable win or even a landslide.

But the other results were substantive, too.  Most notably is that Democrats are more motivated to vote.  This is something I've been writing about for a year.  So many Democrats are scared by Trump's base being so motivated.  But a) his base isn't the full GOP, and you have to motive the full party, and b) Democrats have been organizing and rallying and chomping at the bit to vote against Trump for four years, indeed holding national rallies on the day of his inauguration, about as motivated as one could hope for.  It's the "I would crawl on glass in a pandemic to vote for Biden against Trump" gambit.  And that this is during a pandemic in fact, makes motivation even more important.  That part of the GOP which is not his “base” and therefore not as motivated to vote is far, far, far less likely to risk their lives by going out to vote in a pandemic for Trump.  Democrats, as noted, will crawl over glass.

Also, that the poll shows the race is largely about Trump (39-25%) works deeply against any “October Surprise” or any actions Trump takes between now and Election Day.  It’s not about actions or policy or surprises, it’s just about Trump.  And people know who he is.  And the military story only made that knowledge worse.

And it was very important that 48% think Trump never tells the truth, but only 25% think the same about Biden means Trump has that high of a hurdle to get over whenever he says anything.  If he announces “news” about a vaccine, or jobs numbers or trade deals, or peace talks, or whatever, it will all be meaningless to almost half the public.  And “whatever” includes not believing his denials stories about him demeaning the military.  Or about whatever story comes next.

But even the lesser issues in the poll had very good results.

For instance, that 56% supported Black Lives Matter.  So much was made about the drop in support after its high during the protests over George Floyd's death.  But as we can see, even with that drop, it’s still above half the country, and with room to spare.

And interestingly, 68% of the country think it’s inappropriate for Trump to refer to COVID-19 as the “China virus” – including 75% of independents.  So, every time Trump tries that expression, it just solidifies a negative reaction towards him, by over two-thirds of the couontry.

The poll response about media was oddly the most fascinating.  While 65% of Republicans thought the media was mostly/somewhat inaccurate – what’s notable is that it wasn’t “all” media they were referring to but very specifically the “media they follow” -- which likely is mostly “Fox News.”  Yet 79% of Democrats thought the media they follow is mostly/somewhat accurate.  Further, only 37% of “Fox News” watchers said coronavirus coverage was mostly/somewhat accurate, compared to 89% of MSBNC viewers, 71 % of CNN viewers, and 64% of network TV news-watchers.

And good news, as well, that when Trump pushes to open up grade school, 66% of independents oppose reopening K-12 schools this fall.

In fact, I think the only disappointing poll result for Democrats was that the country (including independents) were split on voting by mail.  That’s not disappointing in how the vote will go, but how the public may possibly look at results -- however it's actually positive news for Democrats seems it means their voters are most likely to vote by mail (which also means voting early) while Republicans will mostly wait to the end to vote in-person.  And there are many reasons that can keep a person from going to the polls (health concerns or whatever), which means those votes are lost.

Overall, very positive for Democrats.  But of course, one step at a time.

You can read the full article here.