Polls Apart

Yesterday, MSNBC had results of a new poll about Republicans contenders in the New Hampshire primary for the presidential nomination.  Though it's just one state, it nonetheless had some surprising results, though I think MSNBC focused on the least important of them.

To be clear, what they heavily focused most on was notable - that Vivek Ramaswamy was now in second place, and Nikki Haley in third place. And they did cover all the surprising results.  But there were three other stories in the poll that I thought were far more meaningful, that the report just skimmed over.

The first of those is that Trump is still in first place far, far, far ahead of everyone else.  Not that that is even remotely surprising, which is why I assume that skipped past it -- but when someone is that overwhelmingly ahead, what actual difference does it make who's in second place, let alone third??  Seriously.  It's interesting as a factoid and fine as TV filler, but not remotely meaningful.  Trump is getting the nomination.  With four indictments, his poll numbers ahead of the GOP competition remain sky high.  He doesn't need to win 50% of the vote in any primary, he only needs to finish in first place - especially those states that are "winner take all," which on the Republican side are most of the states, because the Trump team had the rules changed for that.  So, this reporting is like a baseball team has clinched first place in their division and is going to the playoffs, and the news makes the story about the team that jumped up to second place and is out of the post-season.

Trump is getting the Republican nomination.  Not the people in second or third place, who are so far behind you need a telescope.  Could it have meaning in who gets the VP nomination?  Remotely - though that wasn't part of the story they did.  (And besides, I will be shocked if either Vivek Ramaswamy or Nikki Haley are Trump's VP running mate.  Possible, though deeply unlikely.)

The second story that Ron DeSantis had plummeted to fifth place.  (Apparently the "reboot" didn't kick in like he hoped.)  Fifth place!  That's stunning for someone who last year was being seen as the person who would get the nomination if Trump didn't run, and might even be able to be the nominee even if Trump did run.  What this also does is confirm an article I wrote a year ago, saying how stupid I thought it was for DeSantis to declare his candidacy after Trump had announced.  He was 45 years old.  He could run in four years, since even if Trump won he couldn't run again.  In fact, DeSantis could run in 8 years…or 12 years, he was that young. He could stay out of this year's race, be a loyal and vocal supporter of Trump, maybe even by the VP nominee, and be the heir apparent in 2028, likely getting Trump's endorsement.  But instead he chose to run…and at age 45, may have destroyed his political future.  Fifth place.

And that's the third story.  Because jumping past even Ron DeSantis into four place was - Chris Christie!  And it's not just fourth place, which sounds a bit distant, but he's only two points behind Vivek Ramaswamy in second place.  Yes, Chris Christie is actually two points from being in second place among GOP candidates.  (How bad is this for DeSantis?  Christie is the only Republican running whose negatives are greater than his positives!  And Ron DeSantis is behind him.)  Now, again, the fact that Chris Christie is in fourth place is meaningless in terms of getting the Republican nomination.  He's not going to be the nominee, even that close to being second.  Trump will be the nominee.  But why this is significant is because Christie's entire campaign is based on slamming Trump.  Yet despite that - and considering his very high negatives - he's on the edge of being the second choice of Republicans.  That's problematic for Trump.

So, to me, those are the three most important takeaways from the poll.  Not who is in second, let alone third place and who won't be getting the nomination.

And further, what's also important about the poll - and all GOP polls - and never gets mentioned (except finally three weeks ago in an article in The Hill) is that if for some miraculous reason Trump does not get the Republican nomination…he will totally trash the person who beat him, and then will burn down the party.