Poll Faulting

I’ve seen two polling stories yesterday that are interesting.  One from a well-known poll, the other from a lesser-know pollster, but the data there is fascinating and important.

The “well-known poll” was CBS/YouGov that Harry Enten, the chief data analyst on CNN, addressed.  It showed that 82% of Americans said that the economy should be prioritized…while only 38% said it was being prioritized.  Enten was incredulous, and said that this was shocking in how out of touch it showed the Trump administration was.  “If 82% say you should be prioritizing something," Enten asked, "how can you possibly only make it your priority for just 38%???!!”

The other story was from a lesser-known name, though it sounded familiar, John Della Volpe, so I looked him up.  He’s the Director of Polling at the Harvard Kennedy School’s Institute of Politics.  So, he’s no small potato.  The 538.com website doesn’t have a lot of data on them, but what they do have is a reasonably high rating.  What Della Volpe writes about is how Trump’s support among young voters and even young males - a demographic that was critical to Trump in the election -- has plummeted in only one month.  Such a plummet that I love the use of the phrase “an unambiguous hit.”

"Six weeks into the new presidency, pollster John Della Volpe said that Trump’s support among young voters is already taking an unambiguous hit, as expectations about a shiny new economy collide with our current reality," writes Puck News’s Peter Hamby. "Trump’s overall favorability with younger voters has dropped seven points since his January poll, the weekend before the inauguration. Trump came into office with a 50 percent favorable rating among Gen Z voters. Now, he’s at 43 percent."

The pollster then drilled down to show the specific issues that are hurting Trump among this demographic.

"In January, 62 percent of men under 30 approved of Trump’s handling of the economy," writes Hamby. "Now, just 48 percent approve—a drop of 14 points in just one month. On handling inflation, Trump has taken a 15-point hit, dropping from 55 percent approval before the inauguration to just 40 percent today. And those downward trends are from Della Volpe’s February poll, which was in the field two weeks ago—before multiple news cycles about nagging inflation, before tariffs sent the markets spiraling, before egg prices hit an all-time record, and before Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies took a massive hit."

Della Volpe told Hamby that if Trump doesn't start lowering the cost of living quickly, then "even his strongest backers may conclude he can’t deliver.”

And here’s the thing -- to repeat that phrase, he says “if Trump doesn’t start lowering the cost of living quickly.”  Quickly!!!   “Quickly” is not happening.  I have a hard time imagining Trump lowering the cost of living in even the next six months or maybe a year.  Or worse, at all.  In fact, it seems more likely that prices will rise over time, if not "quickly."  In part because of inflation that the Trump team doesn't have a handle on, in part because of the effect of his tariff wars.  After all, Trump not surrounded by the best and the brightest, only acquiescent suck-up “yes men.”  So, if pollster Della Volpe says lowering prices must be done “quickly,” MAGOPs have a huge problem.