One No Trump

Yesterday afternoon, MSNBC did a segment about supposedly serious discussion among Republicans to consider making Trump the Speaker of the House if the GOP takes control after the 2022 mid-term elections.  I’m not sure why they wasted the airtime – since it is not going to happen, for many reasons, as I wrote back in October – other than it was a good-sounding, controversial, boogeyman story.  It was additionally surprising that they did the segment since, to her credit, host Hallie Jackson kept responding to the reporter things like, “On the other hand, here in the real world…”

It’s worth noting that as much as the concept was reported as “growing in the party,” the only person brought up as talking about it is Matt Gaetz.  Who has long been the only Republican in Congress talking about it, so there was nothing “growing” about it.  Just the same old same old.  Especially as Gaetz keeps trying to suck up to Trump more than possible in hopes he’ll get a pardon if Trump ever gets back in the White House despite not pardoning Gaetz when he was actually in the White House.

But for all the wasted airtime talking about Trump as Speaker, I’m still very glad they did the piece – for the same reason I said in October.  No, Trump is not going to be made Speaker – but as long as the suggestion is in the ether, Democrats should campaign on the possibility, no matter how deeply improbable.  “If you want to be sure that Trump will not be made Speaker of the House, vote Democratic.”

The only new wrinkle in the "Trump as Speaker" fantasy is the rumbled conspiracy-type dream that if Republicans take control of the House, they could impeach President Biden, convict him, then quickly impeach Vice President Harris, convict her, and then if Trump was Speaker -- he would become president again!!  Of course, as Hallie Jackson noted, back in real world...

Forgetting that you actually need some impeachable act on which to impeach a president.  And impeach a vice president.  And even if you accept that with today's Republican Party you don't need to rely on facts and reality, and could impeach a president because he said "Good morning" and that was an abuse of power ordering Americans to act according his authoritarian wishes -- you still need two-thirds of the Senate to convict a president.  And then a vice president.  And back in the real world, that is not happening.  As in -- not.  So, no matter how fevered the far-right dream, Trump is not becoming president again that way.

By the way, before even getting to that conspiratorial GOP fantasy, the idea of Trump simply being voted in as Speaker is deeply improbable because, among many other things, Trump would never want to be Speaker because...the job requires working. And requires showing up every day.  And requires doing much of the job in public.  And letting others speak, including telling you off to your face.  As president, you can delegate – you have a huge staff and an entire cabinet whose secretaries run their massive departments, not to mention the entire military which is run by generals and their staffs, and more.  A president can let everyone report in, have their Chief of Staff interact with those who need involvement and go play golf when you want.  Sure, you’ll be a terrible president, as we saw with Trump – for that and many reasons – but the job of president can run with a minimum of personal action.  That’s not the case with being Speaker of the House.

Actually, Democrats have a twofer going for them.  As I wrote on Tuesday, some far-right Republicans in Congress have tangentially floated the idea of electing Jim Jordan as Speaker, if they take control of the House.  While that’s not likely, it’s far more likely than Trump.

No, Trump is not going to be made Speaker if Republicans win the House majority.  But, along with Jim Jordan, I hope that Democrats make a campaign issue that if the GOP takes control of the House, either of them, no matter how unlikely or even improbable, could.  And terrify the bejeepers out of everyone but the far-right.  And Matt Gaetz.

Just as a reminder, here’s what I wrote in full detail on October 19.  

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                                   When Horrific Rumors Go True

There have been growing rumors lately – and admittedly, they are only rumors and totally unsubstantiated, other than calls from deeply far-right sources – for Republicans in the House  of Representatives to vote for Donald Trump as Speaker if they should win the majority in the 2022 mid-terms.  (The Speaker does not have to be an elected member of the House.)

Part of the deeply far-right fervor for making Trump the Speaker is based not only on their dream of seeing Trump back in government and in charge of The People’s House – but the reality that he would then be second in line to be president.  Their fevered hopes being that Republicans could then impeach Joe Biden and then Kamala Harris, raising Trump back to the Oval Office.  Lost in this insanity, of course, is the pesky reality that they would need two-thirds of the Senate to convict.  But, hey, why let reality get in the way of derangement?  We’re talking about people willing to take bleach and sheep drench to fight a worldwide pandemic, after all.

My first reaction to all this, of course, because I consider myself reasonably sane, was one of horror.  Though just a growing rumor, it’s nonetheless a ghastly concept that today’s “Stop the Steal” Republican Party is arguably crazy enough to do and would turn the House of Representatives into a combination of the Barnum & Bailey Circus, Brookfield Zoo, Coney Island amusement park for kiddies, and Bellevue mental hospital.  And the only way to get there was on the dirt road to hell.

My second reaction, though, is that Trump would never want to do it – because being speaker means you actually have to work at the job every day, and can’t delegate the job as easily as president, letting all your cabinet members run their departments while you go off and play golf twice a week.  And when you do the job, you have to show up in public and sit at the Speaker’s podium – and while that does give an imperious presence and view over the House, it also is a job where you largely have to sit and listen to others, even more so than when he hosted The Apprentice, and do so for hours at end, all under the glaring light and piercing camera of C-SPAN on your every move, unable to call “Cut!” so that you can swear racist epithets at those you don’t like.  And you have to know the Rules of the House – because if you don’t, and have to continually turn to others to ask, that camera will show your ignorance, relentlessly.  But mainly, it’s the showing up and actually doing the job, which is a huge non-starter for Trump.

(Also, just like running for president, this rumor doesn’t take into consideration what Trump’s failing mental condition will be like in 2023, nor his financial condition, nor how many indictments he will be under.)

But then, I had a third reaction.

I love the rumor.  I love it more than I can express.  And I hope Democrats should push it as much as they can to keep it not only alive, but as prominent as possible.  And I am absolutely, totally serious about this.

Drilling into the public consciousness that “If Republicans take control of the House, they will make Trump the Speaker” would be the most heaven-sent campaign issue Democrats could pray for – even worlds better if the $3.5 trillion Reconciliation Bill passed to benefit all Americans, and especially if it didn’t pass without a nickel to spend, uniting the party in fury.  In fact, I think a campaign issue of "If Republicans take control of the House, they will make Trump the Speaker" would transcend almost whatever the politics are at the time of the mid-terms.  It would help drive Democratic voters to the polls in more swelling droves than you can imagine – and that's regardless of all the draconian Republican voter suppression bills trying desperately to keep them from casting ballots,  every Democrat willing to stand in line for hours upon hours and hours and hours on end. And then add the ease of just sending in their mail-in ballots.  Further, it would drive most independents to the polls to vote Democratic, even many of the most-apathetic “I never vote, they’re all the same” among them.  And it would get moderate Republicans, mortified at the “Stop the Steal” effort that’s been pushing their party into near-literal insanity and very-literal fascism, to either vote Democratic or hide in shame.  Yes, it would motivate the Republican base.  But that base, compared to all the rest, is paltry, maybe 15-20%.

And then add to that campaign issue – “Oh, and by the way, he will then also be second in the line of succession to be president.”

Consider, too, that Trump’s approval has been plummeting.  It was bad to begin with, in the low-30% when he left office, 34% with Gallup.  (In fact, 29% in the Pew Research poll.)  But it’s dropped further since – and he’s only gotten loopier.  And that’s with the comforting knowledge that he’s not in office, just based on “No, we don’t approve of him.”  Imagine if those poll numbers transcended the mere passive question of “What do you think of Trump today” and included the active reality of putting him in charge of the House of Representatives. 

(And keep in mind, too, that the rumor wouldn’t allow Republicans to try to make it a comparison “referendum” issue – regardless of whether the “comparison” would be a good one or disastrous.  That’s because there would be no comparison referendum, it would be a pure Trump thing, Trump only, an “up or down” vote:  if Republicans win control of the House, they might make Trump the Speaker.  How do you feel about that?)

And worse still for Republicans, a campaign issue of Trump as Speaker would raise to the top the ghastly image (for most Americans, I think) of Trump heading the very House of government that his insurrectionists broke into and attempted to overthrow the government.  The insurrection couldn’t be dismissed by Republicans as “Oh, that’s old news,” since it would bring it front and center.

But above all, what makes this rumor even better, far better, it that doesn’t matter if there’s any validity to it.  Just the mere rumor that “If Republicans take control of the House, they will make Trump the Speaker of the House” would have the same impact as if it was confirmed by Trump himself.  The rumor alone would be enough to strike massive horror in the hearts of all those mentioned to create an even-greater Blue Tsunami than the 2018 mid-terms.

And…and there’s pretty much no refuting it.  Because not only would the horror be so great as to raise the specter of such a disaster even as a theoretical possibility and keep it locked in, but refuting it would require Republicans explaining that they didn’t want their Dear Leader as Speaker and wouldn’t accept him as Speaker.  Because any wavering from that in the slightest would leave enough wiggle room to make the rumor seem absolutely real…even if it wasn’t even remotely.  And even Trump denying it himself would have no meaning, since his word lost total credibility, except among his base, halfway through his time in office.

So, I say this is a great rumor.  As good a rumor as Democrats could hope for.  And they should repeat it and promote it as much as possible.  That if Republicans take control of the House, they will make Trump the Speaker of the House.  Imagine the utter horror that would strike in the hearts of Democrats -- and most Americans today, as a very real campaign issue.

It’s the gift that will keep on giving.

Because if Republicans take control of the House, the rumor is they will make Trump the Speaker of the House.