One More Time
Another one bites the dust...
I had no idea there was a Special Election last night, but there was, to fill the Kentucky state senate District 37 seat. It became vacant when the seat holder was appointed to become Country Clerk.
In fairness, it's just a local senate race, so there was no national position at stake. However, those races do give at least an indication on how people in a district are thinking. And in fairness, too, it was a Democratic seat. And in a fairly Democratic district. Kamala Harris had won the state by 5 points – though the state senator won it by 21 points.
But –
But –
In tonight’s race, with 95% of the vote in, Democrat Gary Clemons is winning by…
Are you ready?
… 47 points!!!!!!
Yes, really. That is not a typo. I didn't leave out a decimal to make it 4.7.
Clemons beat MAGOP Calvin Leach 72.6% - 25.1%.
To have such a massive gain in a district you won by a landslide!!! My god. If I’d said that Democrats had expanded their huge 21 point advantage by picking up another five points and won by 26, that would have been fine. Better than fine, impressive. But to more than double it!!
I don't know if MAGA voters are just feeling so discouraged and stayed home. Or if Independents and even some MAGA voters had enough and flipped to Democrats. But it's almost unimportant because the end result is the same.
To put this in even greater perspective, Democrats have been picking up an average of 16 points in every Special Election since Trump took office. This was a pick-up that not only beat that, but swamped it, gaining 26 points! In a district where, with a 21-point advantage going in, you didn't think there was all that much room to pick up all that much more. But there turned out to be. And so, they won by 47 points.
Clearly, this kind of margin and result is not going to get duplicated all over in next year's Mid-Terms. But it's nonetheless the kind of result that must make Texas MAGOPs concerned about having gerrymandered their state and narrowing margins in once-safe Red seats. And it's the kind of result that helps explain why the Indiana legislature refused to back Trump's demand to gerrymander their state -- and why other Red states would seem to be unlikely to gerrymander.
Even though 47-point margins are not going to be common in the Mid-Terms, it's hard to imagine MAGOPs running next year not being terrified when they see a result like this. And there probably is a whole lot of soul-searching going on in the party now, wondering "At what point do I try to break from Trump and stop supporting policies the public is showing it abhors"?
But "try to break" is the operative term. It's probably too late for that to make a difference in most cases. MAGOP candidates are tied at the ankle to Trump. They've supported and enabled and praised and sang hallelujahs for him for far too long, for almost a decade. Furthermore, most of the damage is done. Yes, in some cases, breaking away even just a bit could help. And in some cases, the voter base will be Red enough that they feel they are safe to stay true to Trump and placate the base. But there's a problem with both situations --
If a MAGOP candidate breaks ranks with Trump, that might (might...) help a tiny bit in the general election -- but it will still likely be a huge detriment if they get a primary challenge by a Trump acolyte. And those in leans-Red districts who stick with Trump will be safe in their primary, but when it comes to the general election they see Democrats picking up an average of 16 points in every Special Election, and will be running in support of someone with a 33% approval already -- who has dementia which is degenerative, so it's hard to see Trump making things better for himself, being surrounded by unqualified incompetents who, in many cases, are the ones causing the problems.
Hey, just look at yesterday. One of the most competent people on Trump's team is his chief-of-staff Susie Wiles, who just had an interview published where she said Trump “has an alcoholic’s personality.” And that Trump "was in the Epstein files" and on the airplane "manifest" for Epstein's island. And "JD Vance" has been “a conspiracy theorist for a decade” and had “sort of political” motivations for completely changing his positions. And that Budget Secretary Russell Vought is “a right-wing absolute zealot.” And Pam Bondi “completely whiffed” the Epstein Files.
And again, she's one of the most competent people around Trump!
There's still a long time to go. Eleven months (though 10 in places with early voting). And a local state race is not something that will get extrapolated everywhere. But --
Yesterday in Kentucky is a continuation of every Special Election since Trump took office. And Trump has an approval of only 33%. And he has dementia, which is degenerative.
And he hurt himself horribly with his inhumane response to the tragic death of Rob Reiner and his wife Michele -- which Trump then doubled-down on camera. And which almost every MAGOP in Congress was silent about condemning him. Again. And again.
Because this isn't just about Trump. We know who he is. This is about all the elected MAGOPs in Congress who enable him and who are the ones who pass Trump's policies into laws.
Again and again.
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