On Wisconsin

Significant news.  (And how significant?  I'm writing about this rather than Trump's latest nutso press briefing yesterday.)

Keep in mind, one of the main reasons (if not the main reason) that the Republican Party in Wisconsin wanted the state's primary election to go on last week amid the coronavirus crisis was to save the Supreme Court seat of conservative justice Daniel Kelly with a lower turnout.

Further, not just is conventional wisdom that low turnouts favor Republicans, but only one sitting Supreme Court justice in Wisconsin has lost in 53 years. Moreover, conservative justice Kelly was endorsed by Trump.  (And when is the last time we've seen any president endorse a state Supreme Court justice??_

Well...now make that two sitting, Wisconsin Supreme Court justices have lost in 53 years.  The challenger, Judge Jill Karofsky, declared victory yesterday over that sitting conservative justice!

Readers of these pages may recall that last week I wrote a piece about how (as noted above) lower turnout is usually believed to be because of apathy, but that this year it will be due to fear.  And the mistake of Republicans is not recognizing that, since -- as I wrote -- I suspect the one group least likely to go out and vote in November if there’s still a serious social-distancing health crisis is “Moderate and sane conservative Republicans not willing to risk their lives on behalf of going out to vote for Trump.”  So, the question for November is not "Will voter turnout be low?", but rather what party is more motivated to go out and vote?  And Wisconsin voters seems to have answered the question for themselves.

This also signals a huge problem for November, because I suspect Wisconsin voters of BOTH parties will remember that Republicans made them risk their lives voting in the primary and will be really pissed off.  And keep in mind that Wisconsin is a very important swing state.

On a local level, too, this result is significant.  The conservative majority on the Wisconsin Supreme Court is now 4-3.  And…control will be determined in 2023 when the conservative Chief Justice Pat Roggensack is up for another 10 year term – and that election will be held when he is 83.  

If I had to guess, it's that Justice Roggensack won't run for re-election.  But while conservative then may have a younger judge on the ballot instead, that person won’t be running as the incumbent, which is clearly a HUGE deal when campaigning for the Supreme Court.  (Witness only one had lost there in 53 years...before yesterday.)  And given, as I just noted, how livid I’m sure Wisconsin voters of both parties are at Republicans making them risk their lives to vote, and given this Supreme Court result, it would sure seem to suggest it won’t be good running as a conservative anytime soon in Wisconsin.

Here’s an article on the race.

Yes, as important as this is for being a swing state, it is still just a local race in Wisconsin.  But -- given all the conditions that heavily favored the conservative (low turnout, only one incumbent judge losing in 53 years, endorsed by Trump), and the more liberal challenger won...this has to be seen as a major problem by the Trump team and by Republicans all over the country for November.  [Note: the phrase "seen as a major problem" is defined here as "a totally campaign-horrifying occurrence."]