On Being One's Own Worst Enemy

The other week, I wrote about how Trump made a huge mistake focusing on the new model of 60,000 Americans dying from the coranavirus, which he did I have absolutely no doubt because it was "better news" for that day in the news cycle. After all, saying that 60,000 Americans could die was -- while hideous -- substantially better than saying that 120,000 to 240,000 Americans could die, which was the previous model..And Trump is all about the news cycle for that day -- don't worry about saying something outrageous because at the next news cycle you can say something else outrageous and people will have to deal with that new story and move past the previous story in the old news cycle.  The problem for Trump these days, as I also wrote previously, is that this is The Story.  It's not changing.  It will be The Story every day through the election in November.

And the big problem for Trump with him embracing 60,000 American deaths as his new standard is that when the deaths exceeded this -- which tragically they will -- he would look even worse than he does now.  Most especially if the number of deaths exceed it be a lot.  And let's put it this way:  it much more likely that death will exceed 60,000 by "a lot" than go under it by "a lot" -- particularly since we're already at 42,000 deaths in the United States. I didn't factor one thing in about Trump though, which is my mistake -- 

I didn't think he'd double-down.

“Now we’re going toward 50, I’m hearing, or 60,000 people,” Trump said yesterday. “One is too many. I always say it: One is too many. But we’re going toward 50 or 60,000 people. That’s at the lower — as you know, the low number was supposed to be 100,000 people. We could end up at 50 to 60.”

Not only did he double-down -- but he went even lower!  The new model was 60,000 deaths.  Trump is now making it just 50,000 maybe.  Consider: we are right now at 42,604.  But because Trump only wants to throw out "good news" since it will make him look "good" (to his base of cultists) for the day, he is only screwing himself.  And doing so royally.

Absolutely, without question, and tragically. the number of American deaths will not only pass Trump's standard of 50,000, but even the higher number he's foolishly, ignorantly attached himself to. Again, we're at 42,604 already -- as I type this Monday night.  It may well be over 43,000 by the time you read this Tuesday morning.  [UPDATE: at 5 PM, Los Angeles time, the U.S. death total is now up to 45,102.]  And the death toll is increasing by 1,500 to 2,000 a day.  In just one week we could be around 55,000.  And there is no indication yet of a downturn. (Consider: let's even assume a downturn after next week, and "only" 1,000 people die a day -- that means that a month later, we'll be at 85,000 American deaths -- and still adding 1,000 deaths a day.  Except, as I noted, we haven't started to see a downturn.  Further, Red states are opening businesses and  allowing crowds to gather. And...there's always a second wave to viruses epidemics. And it's usually more virulent. And this isn't merely an epidemic, it's a pandemic.

And Trump is doubling down that the standard you should judge him by for doing a good job is that the number of deaths could be as low as 50,000!!!  If you've had your eyes and ears closed for three years and need proof that Trump is a total idiot, there's further evidence.

And by the way, there's another very important factor when looking at the number of deaths.  When Trump and the news media refer to "the model" -- it's based on everything going right.  That means everyone staying at home, everyone wearing face masks for those who have to go out, everyone wearing gloves if they have to go out, business not opening until there is substantial testing.  And that there be substantial testing, period, so that we know how things are going and where attention and resources must be direct.  So...how is that going?  Yipes!  Does Trump not realize that??  How that is what the model is based on -- and he's inciting people to "LIBERATE!" in swing states, which only exacerbates the model for number of deaths.  (Note -- See above, re: evidence Trump is an idiot.)

But there is even a far more factor about the number of deaths.  These numbers being referred to here and only "reported deaths"!!  Eventually testing will ramp up significantly, and we'll learn how many more people have the coronavirus and how many more have died because of it.

Which brings us back to my comment above that it is much more likely that the number of American deaths from COVID-19 will exceed 60,000 by "a lot" than go under it by "a lot."  The old model -- if everything went well -- was 120,000 to 240,000 deaths.  Without having access to computers and models, it seems to me that we could indeed end up within that horrific range by the time a treatment or vaccine is developed.

If Trump had kept to that number, it would have been a disaster for him, having to stand next to that many American deaths from the virus on his watch.  But by ignorantly, irresponsibly lowering his standard to as low as 50,000, just for the sake of momentary "happy news," it will be devastating, crushing for him as the actual number of reported American deaths tragically soars.

But this isn't about Trump, we know who he is.  It's about the elected members of the Republican Party who enable him, accept his words and lack of action, and are complicit.  Along with all Republicans who voted for and still slavishly support him.