Of Primary Concern

I've posted my theory on this in the past, but with so many issues rising up on Trump, the passage of the Budget Bill that the public seems to hate, the negative poll numbers for Trump on every major issue, how we've seen huge increases for Democrats in every Special Election since Trump took office, and the Mid-Term elections coming up, I thought it would be a good time to repeat it.

Members of Congress know how to read polls.  They know the public hates the Trump agenda.  And especially those in Purple districts know that their seats are at serious risk.  But --

They are absolutely terrified of going against Trump, because he'll promote someone else to run against them in the MAGOP primary, and will then probably win it.  And they have to get the party's nomination before they even have a chance in the general election.  Except that not only have they been supporting Trump, they've had to move to the right in the primary to win it, compounding their problems.  And so, assuming they do get the nomination, they'll likely get swamped in this year's general election.

I even think candidates in "leaning Red" districts are at risk next year.  Not as much as swing districts, but unless they're up by at least 15 points, and maybe 20, they are not "safe."  Since we've seen 15-20 point gains for Democrats in Special Elections.  That hasn't always been enough in deep Red districts, but they've flipped some "leans Red" races.  And even did flip one or two very safe Red seats, although in state races, not for the U.S. House.

And so, they continue to vote for these very unpopular Trump-pushed bills, because they know they have to, in order to not get a primary challenge and lose it.

Except...I have long advocated that I don't believe they do have to.  And this is what I've suggested previously.

If I was advising a MAGOP running for re-election, most especially in a Purple district, but even in a "leans Red" district, what I would say is that this is what you should tell the party leaders in the House, and in your state, and to an adviser to Trump who has come to pressure you --

"I understand that if I vote 'No' on this bill, Trump will endorse a primary challenger.  However, I also know that if I vote "Yes' and get the party nomination, I will get swamped in the general election.  And by the way, so too will whoever the primary challenger is, if they win the party primary with Trump's support and in support of this bill, and all the other bills that are highly unpopular in my district.

"But here's the thing, if you do run a primary challenger against me, I just want to be very honest with you and upfront that -- if I lose -- I still believe I can get more votes against a Trump-supported nominee and even against the Democrat, because I still have support in my district, and people will admire that I wasn't just a Trump cult voter.  And so I will run as an Independent.  Because I think I can win.

"Of course, I don't know that I would win.  What's also possible is that I'll split votes with our party's candidate, and the Democrat will win.  And you'll lose a seat in the House.  And because the party can't afford to lose seats, it's likely it will lose control of the House.  And you know a Democratic House will impeach Trump, again.  And you know he won't be able to pass anything in the remaining two years.  And will look even weaker because he'll be a lame duck.  Which will drag the entire party down in 2028, and Democrats will probably win the White House.

"So, my suggestion is to not run a primary challenger against me.  And if a primary challenger decides to run on his or her own, make sure Trump doesn't endorse them.  If I lose, I lose.  But if I win, you have a chance of holding the seat."

And no -- I don't think any MAGOP in Congress would ever do that.  Because they've long since given up their self-respect.  Have been sucked far into the cult.  And remain terrified of Trump even though he has even more to lose than they do