Margin of Era

As I write this late Tuesday night, close to the full results in the Tennessee 7th District Special Election are in.  And in a Deep Red district that Trump won by over 22 points, the MAGOP won the seat, but only by 8.9%.

I thought it was unlikely that Aftyn Bein would win, but that it’s this close in a Deep Red district is massive.

And the thing is, everyone I saw on TV got it wrong all night.  They all said that it was a +22 Trump district, but (being me…) I had checked the 2024 presidential results a couple days ago, and Trump's margin of victory was actually 22.6 points, which is closer to 23 than 22.  So, losing by 8.9 points (in a +22.6 district) is actually a pick-up of 13.7  points – or almost 14 points!

And that fits right into the average pick-up for Democrats in Special Elections since Trump was elected of 16 points.  All the more so because, as an average, that balances the Special Elections in purple, leans Red and safe Red districts.  So, picking up 13.7 points in a Deep Red "incredibly safe" district is tremendous. 

In fact, in some ways, it's better than that.  After all, since this was such a Deep Red district, MAGOPs were panicked about losing it.  So, they not only spent a lot more money to defend it -- money that should never have been spent in such a deeply pro-Trump district, and money which now can't be spent elsewhere in at-risk districts -- but they even sent the vice-president there to campaign, and Trump himself got involved publicly.  And with all that, Democrats picked up 13.7 points.  That kind of a MAGOP effort is doable in a standalone special election, but can't be duplicated in the Mid-Terms defending 220 seats at the same time.

And I hope all Democrats realize this and don’t let their lost dreams of winning tonight get in the way, and instead celebrate how huge and meaningful these results are.  And conversely, I’m sure every MAGOP candidate in a purple and “leans Red” district is terrified.  Not just from this one race in such a Deep Red district, but all the Special elections so far.  (And make no mistake, this wasn't an exception in a Deep Red district, there have been others.  In fact, Democrats even flipped a Deep Red seat in a local Special Election in Iowa.) And I'm sure every MAGOP representative in states that are considering gerrymandering is now looking at their own district and thinking, “No way.  Count me out.”  And MAGOPs in states that have already gerrymandered are looking at their own, now less-secure races ahead and thinking, “What did we do??”

Recalling the article I wrote here back in July when Texas was just considering gerrymandering -- (which is when I discovered the existence of the word “dummymandering" for when gerrymandering backfires) -- I am thrilled to see the analysis on TV now (finally) about how this gerrymandering could, in fact, backfire.  And honestly, it could potentially backfire, not just in districts with single-digit margins, but  even in districts with double-digit margins district which gerrymanders from a safe 18 point advantage down to just a “leans Red” 12 points.  After all, if (right now) Democrats are averaging a 16 point pick-up…who knows??!  It's not like Trump's dementia, being degenerative, is going to get better.  And healthcare hikes may kick in this January.  The Epstein files haven't yet been released.  There are now going to be bipartisan investigations into whether Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth committed a war crime.  Prices are rising.  Tariffs are kicking in.  Inflation is rising.  More cities are having the military sent in.  And...and...and...

Further, whatever happens next November aside, I suspect this is why a lot of the Red states considering gerrymander (if not most…let alone if not all) decide that, no, they don’t want to gerrymander now.  “Why should I give up my safe district to run in a 12-point ‘leans Red’??!  No, thank you.”