Let's Make a Deal

I have not seen enough of all the details that are in this budget “deal” to exactly understand it well enough to sound even remotely wise about what all was agreed to.  Or half-wise, which is often closer to my standard…

I can see enough to be extremely bothered by it and damn what came about – and enough to see where it makes sense and could cause significant problems for MAGOPs.  Like so much in politics, there appears more to it, from both perspectives, than when first seeing the surface.

On the extremely bothered and damning side, the public has shown in polls and in last Tuesday’s election results that they support Democrats in holding the line, fighting for blocking the healthcare cuts and SNAP, and blame the MAGOPS by 10-15 points.  And to expect MAGOPs to hold to a “promise” about anything – but especially a promise on negotiating about healthcare next month (when they haven’t shown the slightest interest ever to do anything but cut healthcare) is an empty hope akin to Charlie Brown hoping that Lucy won’t lie and pull the football away this year.  It’s possible – but she always does.

In a tweet yesterday, one of those eight senators, Independent Angus King of Maine (who caucuses with Democrats) began his explanation of his vote by saying, "If a tactic isn’t working, you switch your approach — especially when millions of Americans are hurting."

Switching tactics is one thing. What the tactic is, though -- and when you choose to use it -- is another decision entirely. There are many approaches available to switch to. And lots of different options of timing.

On the understanding side – this is not "The Democrats" caving on protecting healthcare and SNAP benefits.  As in, "not".  It was eight Democrats in the Senate voting with MAGOPS on this procedural matter (which will likely reopen the government, though that’s still not a certainty), however every other of the remaining 39 Senate Democrats and every one of the 214 House Democrat are standing firm.  Moreover, all Democratic senators and House members – all 47 senators and all 214 members of House remain rock-solid firm in their full support against blocking the healthcare cuts, if and when that does come up for negotiation in December.

And that’s the important point here:  “If and when.”

There’s no guarantee that the issue will get negotiated and come up for a vote in the House.  It probably will, of course, but this is today’s House MAGOP, after all.  And if it doesn’t, that will be gut-wrenching horrible for the country – but the entire blame for it will be on the MAGOPs.  No way around it, no wriggle room.

But if there is a negotiation and vote on the ACA in December, that means MAGOPs in the House and Senate will have to go on the record whether they want to cut access to healthcare.  And everything out of their mouths – the main reason the government shutdown has become the longest in U.S. history – has been to cut benefits.  Has always been to cut benefits.  It seems improbable that MAGOPs in the House and Senate will suddenly change and vote to extend credits for the Affordable Care Act, a program they've tried to end for a decade.  Which is, as noted, terrible for the country and those 40-50 million Americans this will directly impact.  But -- their votes for the damage they did, for the sheer, unbridled cruelty of their disdain for 50 million Americans in need will be on the record.  The entire blame for it will be on the MAGOPs.  No way around it, no wriggle room.  In some ways, that is small comfort.  In longer, political terms for the Mid-Terms, however, it is no small matter.

(And if for some totally unimagined reason the MAGOPs do cave and vote to extend ACA subsidies, then that will be a major win for Democrats getting the deal after holding out for so long.)

It must be added that, as little as I know about all the specifics in the deal, one thing I do know is that the eight Democrats not only got the MAGOPs to not block SNAP payments, but actually increase them for almost a year.  As Lawrence O'Donnell said, no, they didn't get everything, "but that's not nothing."  As he asked, is that the eight Democrats caving, or is that 272 MAGOPs in the House and Senate caving?

Mainly, though, I think it’s critical that Democratic leaders make clear that this is a just a side deal that eight Democrats made on their own, not the full party which is against it. And that in the end, when – and if -- the matter does get addressed in December, whatever each MAGOP does will be on the record.

Rep. Brendan Boyle (D-PA) put it all this way, which I think he expresses well -- 

"So first, as soon as I heard about these eight Senate Democrats conspiring with Republicans to come up with this, I immediately took to Twitter, said that I was a 'hell no' on this supposed agreement, which, by the way, is not actually a legislative agreement. It's essentially a pinky promise from [Senate Majority Leader] John Thune that at some point next month, there'll be a vote on something regarding Obamacare and tax subsidies. That's not an agreement.

"Now, in terms of what I tell those who may have voted for us and who are disappointed, it is important that we keep in mind, regardless of where, you know, certain Senate Democrats may be on this issue, all Democrats are united, 100 percent in the House, 100 percent in the Senate, in opposing these health care cuts. They are being carried out by Republicans, almost all of whom voted for them just a few months ago in the big ugly law."

"So as frustrated as I am at the moment, as frustrated as my other House Democratic colleagues are, as well as some other Senate Democratic colleagues I talked to today, it is important that we not lose sight of the bigger picture here: it is Democrats fighting to save the health care of the American people, to keep premiums where they are, if not lower. And it is Republicans who are hellbent on carrying through with these health care cuts, as unpopular as they may be."

And all that is before MAGOPs are put on the record having to address the cuts to healthcare -- and vote to hurt 40-50 million Americans.

By the way, there's another factor in all this:  I have no idea how MAGOPs in the House will vote on any of this.  For all I know, there will be enough in the House who oppose the terms of this agreement, hating the idea of increasing SNAP benefits until next September -- for that matter, for all we know, Trump may decide he doesn't want to increase SNAP benefits -- which will keep the government shut down.  I don't know if that's likely, but I do know that this is the MAGOP House.  And this is Trump.  Who knows what they'll do?  Because they don't always seem to know.

And in the end, there’s one other issue tangentially related to this – tangential, but important.  Because for this deal to go through, Mike Johnson will have to open the House.  And in doing so, he will have to finally swear in Representative-elect Adelita Grijalva.  And that will make her the 218th vote in the House that will force the Epstein files to be released.  Which Mike Johnson does not want.  Because Trump does not want it.

And I have absolutely no idea what will come from all that.  Other that it’s a massive hurdle and headache for Mike Johnson.  And Trump.  And the MAGOPs.

One final note:  For all Democrats so upset about how the party "blew it."  I completely understand the feeling, whether fully justified or perhaps not.  But take this "comfort" that, as I've written regularly, Trump and MAGOPs are going to make things so much worse over the next year (from higher prices, tariffs, inflation, military in city, more war crime bombings of boats without due process, increased ACA subsidies, other disturbing cuts, more reprehensible pardons, more hedonistic refurbishing, and degenerating cognition from dementia -- and more -- that this deal won't be a blip in six months.  It probably won't be a blip in two months, since that's when the next budget negotiation comes up in January.  So...well, er, take heart from how terrible Trump and MAGOPs will make it in the year ahead.  Because it will be disastrous for them, as well.