Just Another Day in Trump World...

I hate that Trump was indicted yesterday.  Really.  I hate it.

To be clear, I’m not bothered that he was indicted.  No, that’s great  and long overdue.  But when the news broke I had literally just finished writing my article for today, and I had to put that aside and write something else entirely.  Aggghhhhh!!!

I don’t have a lot to say about the indictment, because there isn’t a lot known, specifically what the actual charges will be – though we do know there are seven charges.  But it’s near-impossible not to have a barrage of thoughts.

The first is that it’s deeply unfortunate to see a former President of the United States being indicted.  That’s just so sad and awful for U.S. history, where we want and expect something so much better from those who we elect to lead the country.

The second is that it’s tremendously wonderful to see Trump indicted.  Not because it’s Trump – that’s only a bonus, given his life of racism, anti-Semitism, misogyny and fraud, for things like having to close his charity foundation and paying a $25 million settlement for his fake "university."  And much more.  It’s tremendously wonderful because it shows that a former president who deserved to be indicted did get indicted.  And it’s tremendously wonderful to show that no one, not even a former president, is above the law, and that most especially if you put the national security of the United States at risk, you will be investigated, and charged.  And if a jury agrees with any of the charges, you will be convicted.  And that’s as it should be.  Whoever the President is, whatever the party.

What I wonder is whether these will be all the indictments related to the documents in Mar-a-Largo, or if there will be additional indictments to be filed in Washington, D.C. and – if so – if those will be filed at another time.  Perhaps by the morning when this is posted we’ll know more.

This would seem to take a little pressure off of Fani Willis in Georgia.  Not that any decisions she makes will be impacted by what any other investigation does.  But once her decision is made, the public attention, while it will still be high, will be much less than it would have been otherwise.  After all, if she does file charges against Trump, there won’t be the same shock and “outrage” since those people will have their attention already on the more damning federal charges, especially if they include espionage.  And if it turns out that she doesn’t file charges against Trump, there won’t be the same shock and “outrage” since those disappointed people will have been a bit placated by these federal indictments.

What will be interesting to watch in the coming hours and days and period ahead is how much Trump makes public statements, whether on social media or phone calls to news shows or even in public appearances.  By all rights, his lawyers will likely be throwing themselves prostrate at his feet and begging him to keep silent, because everything he utters can and will be used against him.  My pure guess is that even if, for some reason, Trump actually tries to be totally silent (which I doubt), he just doesn’t have it in him to say nothing.  Not counting the four-minute video he's already made.  But starting now.  It's borderline impossible to think he can say nothing about this indictment even for days (starting now...), let alone a year.  Let alone during his presidential campaign.  So...well, if he keeps talking, lawyers will be taking notes.  And keeping the videos. 

I’m sure that we will hear a lot of analysts say that Trump’s popularity has only increased by the indictments.  But what I’m equally sure is that if that’s the case, it is only popularity within the Republican Party, most of which was going to be voting for him anyway.  And that’s before he will have to appear on the campaign trail, answering questions and asking people to vote for him as president while under indictments.  (“Indictments” plural, since it's now already two.) Not to mention being found liable already of sexual abuse.  I suspect it will make him much less popular among Independents, not to mention phenomenally less popular (if that's possible) among Democrats.  And if the charges turn out to include espionage, then even his increased popularity among Republicans is at risk and might not be what Trump would hope, and could actually, potentially turn less popular.  Keep in mind, too, that when I say less popular, the loss of just 3 points in his Republican popularity can be devastating in the general election.  Because, all this is just something to ponder during the primary season.  If Trump does still get the GOP nomination, it’s a whole new dynamic for him on the national stage as the indicted Republican nominee for president, indicted perhaps on espionage charges over definitely national security, running with against President Joe Biden to be Commander-in-Chief.

Related to this is the Republican Party reaction to the indictment.  Already, Speaker Kevin McCarthy gave a blistering slam of the Justice Department and full defense of Trump.  Putting aside that McCarthy doesn’t have a lot of support or gravitas in the country right now (including that he lost control of his party and can't even bring any bill to the House floor), he's at risk of defending Trump without knowing the charges -- or the evidence against him.  As much as many or most Republican officials go all-in defending Trump, including the other candidates trying to get the party's presidential nomination, and all GOP candidates across the country, that could end up causing big problems for themselves in 2024.  Not only for when the public knows more about the charges and perhaps the evidence, and if there are other indictments, but also because it’s possible Trump won’t even be the party’s nominee.  I think he will be, and would bet that he is – but it’s not at all certain.

Finally, as huge news as this is – and it’s massive – it’s not going to be resolved in court one way or another for a long time.  Most experts say it won’t even get to court for a year, but that takes us to the party conventions.  Will a trial go forward at that time, if Trump is the GOP nominee?  It’s hard to imagine that happening.  Though it’s not impossible to imagine, since the alternative is putting it off for yet another six months.  After the election.  At which point Trump conceivably could have been elected president.  At which point, being Trump, he could have his Justice Department drop charges.  At which point, if he did that, and Democrats have regained control of the House, he would likely be impeached.  At which point…oh, you fill in all the blanks at this point.

There’s still so much ahead to happen, not just with this case, but all the other investigations – in Georgia, Manhattan, Washington for January 6 and, lest we forget, New York State – that there remain so many questions.  And high on that list is how it affects the Republican primary.  For now, I think it won’t affect it much, and that Trump will still be the nominee of today’s insane, fascist Republican Party.  But…we’ll see.

Which brings me to a closing thought.  For the longest time, there was a vocal part of Democrats upset at Merrick Garland for not doing anything about Trump, sure that he wouldn't, not believing him when he said that no one was above the law, and the investigation would go wherever the evidence takes it.  And here, we now have a former president of the United States indicted for the first time in the country's history.  Some may say it should have happened earlier, and that's a fair complaint -- which may be justified or not, given that indicting a former president isn't enough, but you also have to prove it beyond a reasonable doubt to every member of a jury who might be wary of convicting a former president, so you need a whole lot more rock-solid evidence to prosecute.  And some may also say that Attorney General Garland didn't handle this investigation, Jack Smith did.  And that's true -- though Garland is who hired Jack Smith and knew very well who he was getting.

So, now -- we watch what happens next.  Here, and with all the other investigations.

And the best news of all about this is that I have my article for tomorrow already written!

​Unless some other news related to all this comes up...