It's Been a Worse Time for Trump Than Even He Thinks

I don’t have much to add about Trump today, since it’s been so massively covered and actually pretty basic.  He pled not guilty to 34 felony counts, which pretty much anyone would have been charged with, and which if it was Barack Obama charged for the same things and charged by a GOP D.A., Republicans would be cheering hosannahs rather than weeping MAGAA tears that it was “un-American” and that Manhattan D.A. Alvin Bragg was just being political.

The bottom line is that Trump will either be found guilty or not guilty.  If he’s found not guilty, Republicans should almost celebrate the indictments because it will give Trump a huge talking point in his campaign.  And if he’s found guilty, well…then, clearly it wasn’t over-reach, political or un-American.  It was someone committing a crime, being arrested and found guilty by a jury hearing all the evidence argued on both side.

Whatever the ultimate verdict, I do hope that Republicans save at least some tears, since it seems likely that this will be only the first of several felony indictments.  Which brings me to another matter here related to it all.  Trump’s popularity and how he’s supposedly helped by it all.

I do suspect that Trump is helped within the Republican Party by being arrested on 34 felonies, because that’s today’s GOP.  But moving that to outside the party and into the general public, it’s another matter.  (Never mind that he will likely have several other indictments hanging on him should he become the Republican standard bearer.)  After all, to most people, running as a candidate under indictment with 34 charges is not considered a great campaign issue.  While some candidates have won races under indictment, that’s usually in a district or state that’s heavily weighted to their party, like Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.  But that’s only “some,” not most, and it’s not a national campaign.

Further, a CNN poll this week showed that 60% of Americans support Trump being indicted.  (So much for “Speaker” Kevin McCarthy insisting that Americans would not tolerate the Trump indictments.  Not only are they tolerating it, they’re heavily endorsing it.  And more to the point, the same poll showed that Trump’s approval is a dismal 34%.  Neither are highly supportive of the concept that the indictments help Trump.

Then, there’s a matter of Trump’s fundraising, and how he raised $4 million dollars in just 24 hours after the indictments were announced.  The thing is, though, if you take a step back, this not only doesn’t show Great Popularity for Trump, but instead shows how his popularity has weakened.  To begin with, he only raised $1 million in the next 24 hours, a massive drop of 75%.  Additionally, what wasn’t taken into consideration when reporting these numbers is what Trump would normally have been raising without the indictments.  But most important, far above all is this – that after Trump lost the election in 2020, he cried out that it was stolen and made a big push to raise money.  And over the next eight weeks, raised $255 million.  So, he was able to sustain such massive fundraising for two months.  Now, he could only sustain it for one day.  And that’s when he was an active candidate, unlike in 2020 when he was just asking for money.

Finally, there’s my favorite observation – not just because of what it is, but because it’s a twofer, with Marjorie Taylor Green in the lead, rather than Trump.

By way of reminder, last December, just four months ago, Greene spoke at an extreme right event and criticized those who put together the January 6 Insurrection – not for it being wrong, but for not being effective enough.  She said that she had organized January 6 (along with Steve Bannon), "We'd have won" and then added that they all would have "been armed."  And after Trump was indicted, she got her chance.  Writing on his social media platform, Trump had admonished his followers to protest -- in fact, not just protest but “PROTEST, TAKE OUR NATION BACK!”  And then added for emphasis to “PROTEST, PROTEST, PROTEST!!!”, in case he wasn’t clear enough.  That, and even more, calling for "DEATH AND DESTRUCTION."  And so, Ms. Greene, probably figuring she had a really good starting point to prove her boast and convince Trump why she should be his 2024 running mate, took it on herself to organize the protest in NYC.  And to show what she herself could do to build on Trump supporters and her own supporters if given the chance to organize.

For starters, she didn't get permits.

And then, there were more media than protestors.  (To be clear, I mean protestors for Trump, because there were a lot of protestors against him.)

And then, Greene made a brief appearance – after which she quickly ran away.

After that, Trump was charged and left.

So much for Trump’s popularity so massive he’d gather a riot to rival the January 6 Insurrection.  And PROTEST, PROTEST, PROTEST FOR DEATH AND DESTRUCTION TO TAKE OUR COUNTRY BACK!!!  Nothing.  And so much too for Marjorie Taylor Greene’s self-proclaimed, vaunted organizing skills.  And VP-nominee hopes.

Afterwards, she called into a podcast and said, “We just had to pull away, the car was surrounded by people there .. they were bumping the car. It’s a chaotic scene, unbelievable. Horrible people who have totally bought into this witch hunt.”  Because, apparently, this ace organizer was unaware that there are a lot of people in New York and a lot of traffic.  And that most people there hate Trump and have thought he was a joke for 50 years.

But that’s Trump’s popularity.  That’s how his indictment has helped him.  And there are at least six other, active court cases ongoing at the moment, so far.  (Georgia, Mar-a-Lago documents, January 6, New York state, E.Jean Carroll rape trial, and Rep. Eric Swalwell’s lawsuit.)

This case in Manhattan has been considered perhaps the least of them, maybe the weakest.  (Though, in fairness, it’s actually of serious impactfulness since it’s one of the things allowed Trump’s 2016 campaign to stay alive.)  And the “bump” Trump has gotten from GOP faux-outrage has been…well, pretty much lip service by rote, and borderline non-existent.

Now add to this that an appeals court earlier on Tuesday turned down Trump’s appeal and ruled that major Trump aides would have to testify in federal court to Special Counsel Jack Smith.  They include his former Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, as well as former Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe, former national security adviser Robert O’Brien and former Department of Homeland Security official Ken Cuccinelli, as well as advisor Stephen Miller and former Communications Director Dan Scavino.

And then the day turn even worse for Trump.