Is There a Speaker in the House?!

"Welcome to Day One of the GOP majority."

-- unnamed GOP operative

Over the past month, I’ve had arguments with friends who’ve insisted they knew what would happen in the vote for House Speaker.  “Of course, it will eventually be Kevin McCarthy.”

My response was that I don’t have a clue what will happen.  And it might end up being Kevin McCarthy, but if it does, saying so was just a pure guess.  If I was forced to bet, then I would bet it would be Kevin McCarthy.  It’s the most rational result.  But that’s only if I was put in the unrealistic position where I absolutely had to bet.  But if had the choice of betting any amount of money, I wouldn’t bet a nickel because I don’t want to lose anything.  McCarthy could only afford to lose four votes, I said, and five Republicans have already said they’d vote against him.  Saying “Of course it will eventually be Kevin McCarthy” is rational – but I’ve long since given up trying to figure out what today’s Republican in Congress (let alone outside of Congress) is thinking and why.  Rationality doesn’t enter in the picture.

And then yesterday happened.

Now, to be clear, Kevin McCarthy may still end up being Speaker.  But that would still just be a wild, pure guess.  And at this point, not as rational a one as yesterday.

In fact, I not only don’t have a clue if Kevin McCarthy will be elected Speaker, I don’t have a clue what in the world will happen and who will get elected.  Because I doubt anyone in Congress knows.  And if they don’t know, how on earth can anybody.  Unless you’re closing your eyes, throw a dart, and go with whoever on the board it lands on.  And then say, “See!  I told you so!”

So…what will happen.  My answer is easy – as I don’t know.  It could be Steve Scalise.  Or Elise Stefanink.  Or it even could be a compromise candidate, like perhaps (since the Speaker doesn’t have to be a member of Congress) former Michigan Congressman Fred Upton, a Republican moderate who voted to impeach Trump.  Or it could be Kevin McCarthy.  Or…or…or…or…  The list and possibilities are near-endless.  Hence – “I don’t have a clue.”

What I’d love (and it won't happen) is for Democrats to screw with Republicans and nominate someone from the GOP's opposition wing to maybe peel off a vote or two as a protest vote.  Or better still (and it really won't happen) -- nominate Liz Cheney.  And then let a few Democrats vote for her (since Hakeem Jeffries is not going to win).  Hey, who knows, you may even get a couple of Republicans to vote for her.

Of course, the real question is not who will be elected Speaker of the House – but how long will whoever is elected stay elected?  The second real question is, after showing their empty and dysfunctional hand today, what on earth do Republicans think they can accomplish during this Congress’ next two years?  Most especially without embarrassing itself and causing harm to the GOP in 2024.  And after only one day, that horse may have already left the barn.

Fun Fact: when Nancy Pelosi was Speaker during the last two years, she had a four-vote Democratic majority.  We never saw this profound level of utter chaos (or pretty much any) in the Democratic House.  Argument and debate, yes, but not chaos.  The Democratic caucus stuck together to help pass a great deal of important legislation that became law.  All with a four-vote majority.

This is what happens when a party doesn't stand for pretty much anything -- other than being divisive.  This is what happens when a party doesn't actually want to govern to help people or know how to and is suddenly put in a position to do so.  This is what happens when the core "MAGA" wing of the Republican Party, which helped enable the Insurrection, not only has nothing to offer but exists only to be contrarian.  This isn't bad for them, this is what they fundraise over.  This is today's GOP.  What we are seeing isn't a bug, but a feature.  What we are seeing is a preview of the next two years of GOP leadership in the House.

One last thing to keep in mind with today’s inability by the Republican majority to elect a Speaker – there are currently no members of the House of Representatives!  All members’ terms ended with the last Congress, and new members can’t be sworn in until there is a Speaker.

So, when Republicans say they’re for “limited government,” this is one of the few times it’s actually true.