Independents' Day

​As I’ve noted here in the past, Independents are critical since they are who decide close elections.

A new poll was released yesterday from The Economist/YouGov on Trump among Independents.  And it shows 27% approval and 67% disapproval.  That’s a stunning negative 40 points!!

Even worse is the (not surprising) direction the poll shows the results are going.  But though the direction isn’t surprising, the floor dropping out of the bottom is notable –

Only last week, in the same poll, Trump’s net approval among Independents was negative 31 points. That’s certainly terrible on its own, but it means a drop of nine points in only one week. 

And earlier this month, this same The Economist/YouGov poll with Independents was negative 28 percentage points.  So, there’s been a drop of 12 points in less than a month.  Or to put it another way, almost a 50% bigger drop.

At this rate, Independents won’t just be critical in deciding close elections, but even “leans Red” elections.  And that, in fact, seems to explain what we’ve been seeing in Special Elections – which have been terrible for MAGOPs since Trump took office (with Democrats gaining an average of 16 points in each), but have gotten much worse the past month when there were state Special Elections in Kentucky and Iowa, and Democrats gained an additional 26 and 27 points over the previous margins. 

And this is why the MAGOP gerrymandering efforts might well be backfiring.  And why several Red state legislatures have not gone along with Trump to gerrymander – since they, too, can read polls and know that gerrymandering could put those in “leans Red” districts at risk.  In fact, if those huge gains in Kentucky and Iowa are any indication, not all “safe Red” seats would be safe.

Yes, the Mid-Terms are still a ways off.  But Election Day is less than a year from today, now only 10 months – and in some states, early voting starts in less than nine months.  Still, though, much can change.  But…that doesn’t mean that it will change for the better with MAGOPs.  It could even be worse.  After all -- as I’ve said – who does Trump have around him who can help??!  He’s surrounded by unqualified incompetents, many of whom are causing the problems.  Who’s going to help Trump?  “JD Vance”?  Pete Hegseth?  Pam Bondi?  Kristi Noem?  Stephen Miller?  Kash Patel?  Tulsi Gabbard?  Robert Kennedy Jr?  Tom Homan (caught on FBI tape taking a $50,000 bribe and who has said, “I don’t care what judges think” about ICE deportation flights) isn’t an upgrade on Greg Bovino.  Marco Rubio is one of the more “mature” members of the Cabinet (which helps explain the trouble Trump is in), and he got pummeled at a Senate hearing yesterday.  And by his own party’s Rand Paul, no less.

(Paul asked Rubio if, like we did in Venezuela, “a foreign country bombed our air defense missiles, captured and removed our president and blockaded our country, would that be considered an act of war?”  Rubio wouldn’t answer, and eventually the best he could offer was to say that Rand Paul’s was a "one-way" argument. It's not, but that isn’t an answer.  After all, even if – for the sake of argument it is -- the question is still -- Would the scenario he described be an act of war?  And Rubio couldn’t answer.  And he may be the “best and the brightest” in the Cabinet for Trump to rely on.)

And…Trump has dementia which is degenerative.  So, it’s not like he is going to be making things better over the next 10 months.  And everything in the party starts with Trump.

Yeah.  And I think all MAGOPs have to be freaking out.

So, that The Economist/YouGov poll yesterday showing Independents negative 40 points against Trump can only be freaking out MAGOPs and the MAGAsphere.  Along with a Reuters poll the day before, having his general approval at 38%, down two points.  As video of Minneapolis and stories of murders by DHS continue to fill the TV screens.  We see the fear in some of the most far-right in Congress backing off from earlier positions on DHS.  Stephen Miller (who had been the most virulent, calling the murdered Alex Pretti a “domestic terrorist,” a “would-be assassin”, someone who “came to ‘massacre’ cops) even backed off and toned it down yesterday.   Even Sean Hannity and several others on Fox backed off.  And now add in polls.  They can all read the numbers, even if Trump doesn’t believe them.

And when Independents, who now make up almost a third of the voter base, nearly equal to each party, have Trump at negative 40 points --  as the expression goes, that may not be Hell…but you can see it from here.

And it’s especially easy to see when you’re the ones who have been enabling, supporting and protecting Trump.  Who you know has dementia and will only get worse.