Hit and a Myth

Over the weekend, a friend sent me an article in The Atlantic that he thought would be interesting in regards to MAGA response to Trump.  It was written back in January, not long after the attack on Venezuela, so admittedly the author’s conclusions aren’t up to date, though they do overlap a bit with what one analyst said on TV three weeks ago.  And many of his points are generic, rather than specific to the time. 

The article was titled, “The Biggest Myth About Trump’s Base (And Why Many Believe It)” – and the sub-heading was “The MAGA faithful aren’t deserting their leader.”

I found it sort of an empty article since the piece ignores a great deal (even accepting that it was written before attacking Iran).  Here are reasons why:

1. No one is suggesting that the MAGOP is ripped apart in half and in disarray.  But if Trump loses only a mere 3% from his party, that’s a lot.  Losing 3% can turn a razor thin 51-49 race into a 54-46 landslide.

2.  Just because the MAGA faithful tell a pollster that they approve of Trump doesn’t mean they approve enough to vote.

3.  As the author himself notes, the approval by MAGOPs on Trump’s handling of most of the top specific issues has dropped – which means their stated overall support of him would seem a bit hollow and shaky.

4.  With MAGOP support of Trump seeming a bit hollow and shaky, it’s not unreasonable to think that a lot of MAGOPs don’t want to tell a pollster they don’t support Trump despite being unhappy with him on so many issues.  After all, consider that the opposite was true when Trump first ran in 2015 – as analysis of polls later suggested, with Trump considered such an outlandish, improbable candidate, many people didn’t seem to want to tell pollsters that they supported him.  So, some polls undercounted his support.  It follows to think the opposite today holds true:  that lifelong Republicans don’t want to acknowledge to a pollster not supporting their party leader.  After all (to repeat), many are saying they don’t support his issues.  In fact, almost any of his issues.  Even those considered his signature issues.  So, some polls are likely overcounting his support.

5. Pollsters regularly say that what’s important is how strong people’s support is, not "support" – and most polls I’ve seen have shown that while Trump's support in the party hasn’t dropped much, a lot has shifted from “strongly approve” to “approve.”  And it’s the “strongly approve” that goes to the polls in a Mid-Term off-year election.

6.  Trump won’t be on the ballot in the Mid-Terms, so it makes that disapproval by MAGOPs of those specific issues deeply critical for the party in the election.  Not only do so many in the Trump base only go out to vote when Trump is on the ballot (which he won’t be), but when they do vote, though not approving of Trump’s handling of most issues, it’s more reasonable to take out their disapproval on those elected party officials who passed into law all the things many in the party disapprove of.

7. The author points to heavy MAGOP support of the U.S. military raid that brought about the capture of Venezuela’s President Maduro’s.  But that’s borderline meaningless.  It’s not because it was two months ago – it’s that the whole thing lasted only 24-hours, so it's likely a blip of an issue to the party. 

8.  The author says that Trump’s support within the party is strong, though points to one poll only, one which says it’s 85% approval – but I’ve seen more recent polls that say his support in the party is around 70%, whereas in his first term it was 91%.  Without question, Trump is still incredibly popular in the party – but a drop of between 6-to-21 points is no small matter.  More importantly, even accepting his figure, “85% approval” does not differentiate between “strongly” approve” or just “approve.”  It’s the “strongly approve” that are guaranteed to go out and vote.  The rest who just “approve” need to be motivated.  And not supporting so many issues is not motivation.

9.  The die-hard, forever-Trump who is like God "MAGA faithful" base is around 50-60% of the party.  It will always support him.  I have no doubt that the author is right in saying that there’s no fracture in the loyal MAGA base.  But that isn't today's entire MAGOP, which is made up, in part, of lifelong Republicans who've long supported the party, but not the cult of personality, as well as "moderates" (compared to the rest of the extreme right of the party) on the frayed edge.  The question is this other 40-50%.  That’s a huge amount to question.  It doesn’t mean they’ll vote Democratic – just that they might not vote at all.

10.  The author analyzes the break that Marjorie Taylor Greene had with Trump – saying that it shows the opposite of the party having fractures, because it forced her out of the House of Representatives – which is ridiculous way to see the issue.  She was one of Trump's top, most vocal supporters – and she broke with him on some issues and left Congress.  That’s the very definition of having fractures in the party!  The fact that she didn’t want to keep getting attacked and maybe feared for her safety and didn’t think she could win in a primary, or perhaps just didn’t want to be in Congress anymore and deal with all that…does NOT mean there’s no fracturing.  And to repeat – if only 3% of MAGOPs agree with Marjorie Taylor Greene and stop supporting Trump (and who knows, it could be more), she would still have lost her primary had she run…but that loss of 3% in a general election would be massive to the party.

11.  Again, this article was from before Trump attacked Iran.  Since then, gas prices have skyrocketed, 13 Americans are dead, 5,000 Marines were sent to the area, grocery prices will soon be going higher, people will have trouble paying for healthcare, there will more Epstein file revelations, Trump’s dementia will worsen and more.

12.  And finally, and ultimately, yes, of course the author is correct that Trump support within the party will likely remain high – most especially the hardcore MAGA base.  Though much that MAGA base is compared to the rest of the party, and how strong that overall party approval is and will be over the next eight months, and how much some that approval is just being told to appease pollsters, who knows?  But in the end…no party can win on just their own party’s support.  You need to get support from Independents – and right now, a poll from The Economist/YouGov had Trump’s support with Independents at a horrific 25%.  So, even at best, saying “Trump’s support in his party is still high and not fractured” misses the far-larger story.  His approval in the country is 37%.  Right now.  And it will be a huge challenge for him, especially with degenerative dementia, surrounded by unqualified incompetents in their job to say “Yes” to Trump to get that approval much higher.  Let alone higher at all.  Let alone not plummet.