Happy Independents Day

On Monday, NBC released the results of their most recent poll, and the numbers were bad for Trump – on overall approval, and approval on all important issues.  But one particular number on an uncommon question leaped out for me as perhaps the most critical of all.

I have long thought and written that one of the most important numbers in elections is Independents, because for most close elections they are who determine results.  And so, in polling, the question I look for (though don’t often see) is on how Independents feel.  And in that NBC poll, 56% of Independents were either Disappointed, Angry or Furious at Trump.

But here’s the thing:  it’s not like that number means 44% were happy with him.  They weren’t  – because 34% were Neutral.  That left only 10% were okay with him. 

But let’s dig a little deeper.  We’re going to do a bit of math here, which I know can get numbing, but that’s mainly to show the process.  How I got from here to there.  It won't be on the test.  Ultimately, the only numbers that matter are the final ones.  

So, this is what I mean:

If we start by just looking at that 34% who said they were neutral and just make a very conservative guess on how they ultimately will feel when deciding how to vote, and simply split that 34% in half – in other words, giving half of them (17%) to support for Trump and half (the other 17%) opposed -- it means that 73% of Independents are Disappointed, Angry or Furious at him. 

But I think it’s worse that that – which is saying a lot, because 73-27% against Trump is terrible.  What I would suggest is that that 34% won’t merely split in half when they vote.  Instead, I think two things are more likely.  The first is that a group of people who right now are neutral about an incumbent’s performance are showing that they aren’t happy yet with the person who has been doing the job, and barring something drastic most will probably vote that way, unhappy with the incumbent.  And second (somewhat similarly), a group of neutrals are more likely in the end to divide by the same percentage as those in the same group who have stated their opinion – which as noted at the beginning is 56% unhappy-10% okay.  So, doing basic math, that means this group of 34% neutral people, when it comes to deciding who they will vote for, will split closer to 29-5%.  And that brings the overall number to  –

85% -- Disappointed, Angry or Furious

15% -- Okay with Trump

I don’t know if that’s valid, of course.  Though I think it’s a reasonable presumption.  But let’s say it’s wrong, and so instead let’s stay at looking at this conservatively.  And maybe, in the end, those 34% Neutral Independents are really those who don’t get involved all that much in paying attention to politics and just don’t vote, most especially in a Mid-Term election, when voting is always much lower.  Okay, a fair assumption.  It’s possible. 

The thing is, that means you have to go back to your abacus and readjust numbers of the “part” (those who did state an opinion) as becoming “the whole.”  The 100% of Independents who do vote and whose opinions count.  And so, when you adjust the 56-10% out of their group’s 100% as being the 100% -- that makes the percentage of “Independents Who Do Vote”…the exact same!  And it still is –

85% -- Disappointed, Angry or Furious

15% -- Okay with Trump

Now, again, I don’t know if this is what will happen.  It’s just math and percentages, and how the numbers extrapolate.  But they might be totally different.  (Though that means they might be even worse for Trump).  And also, as noted above, by being conservative, the numbers were still terrible for Trump, at 73-27%.

Further, as I’ve written here, there’s another reason I don’t know if these numbers will hold.  That’s because I think all numbers for all groups will be worse for Trump in a year.  For all the reasons I’ve previously explained, Trump is surrounded by unqualified incompetents who won’t be able to help him.  And inflation will rise, the tariffs will kick in, prices will keep going up, more jobs will be lost, healthcare decisions will cause serious problems, more cities will have the military invading them, the Epstein files risk being devastating, the Russian war against Ukraine may still be going on, the “peace president” Trump who will keep us out of war has rebranded the Defense Department as the Department of War and much more.  Including that Trump has dementia which is degenerative, and at 80 years old next June he will be much worse in a year.

But even if we ignore all of this (which would have saved me a whole lot of typing) and just go on the basic numbers that were reported for Independents, perhaps the most important group for deciding a close election, it’s –

56% -- Disappointed, Angry or Furious

10% -- Okay with Trump

And that’s incredibly terrible.  And that’s the good news for Trump.