Georgia on My Mind

I'm having a hard time figuring out Republican strategy in the two Senate run-offs in Georgia on January 5, races which could determine control of the Senate.  I think the GOP should be favorited to win both, and it's easy to tell that at least some of the Republican Election Angst is intended to build angst among GOP voters in Georgia.  But that's not especially strategy, it's more a byproduct.

Mainly, I look that both Republican senators releasing a joint statement calling for the Secretary of State in Georgia to resign for supposedly handling the election so poorly.  Under normal conditions that's weird, but it's bizarre when you realize that the Secretary of State is a fellow-Republican.  The latest report is that their statement came as a sort of directive from Trump, but whether it was or not, they released it and it's so counter-productive that it's the political equivalent of shooting themselves in the foot.  It doesn't mean they'll lose because of it, but it certainly makes the effort more difficult.

For one thing, the statement send up a big banner that Republicans are upset that so many people were allowed to vote and not knocked off the voter rolls or suppressed in some way.  And by "people," they likely mean black people.  Which would seem to be a great way to rile that group up and drive them to the polls in greater numbers than might otherwise be planning to.

For another, it shines a bright light on one of the most egregious examples of voter suppression in the state, when Stacey Abrams was barely defeated in her 2018 run for governor.  An action that itself was so problematic and counter-productive that it lead her to create a "get out the vote" organization that helped Joe Biden win the state, the first time a Democratic presidential candidate had in 28 years, and helped get these two Senate run-offs.  As if she needed any more motivation to get Democrats out to vote on January 5.

The press release also creates division within the Republican Party.  Republican senators against the Republican Secretary of State.  And while senators likely have a greater sense of authority about them, and while they're all representing the same state of Georgia, the risk in this skirmish is that the Secretary of State has the patina of being local, "one of us," while the senators can be seen as those Washington people who have lost touch with our state.  But even if it's the opposite, or an even wash, it's still a family-fight split.  And in two races as close as these appear to me, you can't want to risk offending as much as 5% of the party, because not only is it close, but voter turnout in a run-off election is always the big concern.

And finally, there was no mismanagement of the election.  There's no record of it, no serious charges of it.  And both Republican candidates know that.  So, to make an issue of it -- and the first issue of their run-off -- is really very odd.

So, I don't get it.  Rather than starting your campaign on a platform of criticizing your Democratic opponents, instead they're setting their narrative as attacking the Secretary of State of your own party!

As for the election itself, while there are a lot of issues, I think there are two especially-large dynamics at play, and I have no idea which will be most important.

One is that we don't know if Georgia voters will want there to be a check on the party in the White House and in control of the House of Representatives.  And if so, then that favors voting for the Republicans.  Conversely, they might be tired of gridlock and want to see Democrats control the Senate so that at least something can be done.  Remember, the election seems to be close, so we're only talking about 3-10% of voters having it impact their thinking.

The other dynamic is that we don't know of Republican turnout will be affected by not having Trump on the ticket.  Without that, Republicans don't have the emotional, personal impetus they would otherwise.  They don't even have the issue of the Supreme Court, because Republicans in the Senate rushed through the confirmation of Amy Coney Barrett.  So, the weight of that is off Republican shoulders.  "We got what we wanted."

I don't know which dynamics will have the most impact.  My sense is that not having Trump on the ticket will be a more significant factor.  Whether it's enough of a factor to sway the vote for Democrats is another matter.  But in a close election, it's critical -- and both Republican candidates putting out a statement whining that they want the Republican Secretary of State to resign doesn't help.

​It was just a crazy thing to do.  So...well, yeah, it probably did come from Trump.