From the Kevin McCarthy "Oops" Dept.

Back in November, Kevin McCarthy vowed to keep his promise to remove major Democratic voices – Adam Schiff and Eric Swalwell – from having committee assignments, as well as Ilhan Omar.  Of course, McCarthy was a bit premature since he has to convince his own GOP caucus to actually vote him Speaker first (likely, but growing more uncertain by the day), but that’s just a pesky detail.

At the time, I noted that beyond McCarthy’s challenge of actually becoming Speaker, he also faced a big hurdle of making his promise more than just empty swagger.  That’s because with Republicans holding only a tiny margin in the Houses, he’ll have to convince virtually the entire Republican caucus to support kicking these three Democrats off committees. 

As I wrote here at the time, that would be possible, but no sure thing.  In fact, I thought it seemed almost unlikely Republicans would know that such an action risked

serious payback against any one of them.

It was one thing, after all, for Democrats to keep Marjorie Taylor Greene from committee assignments because she had threated violence against other members of Congress – so problematic that 11 Republicans voted with Democrats to ban her.  But to ban these three Democrats for supposedly making a false statement and supposedly making anti-Semitic statements is not only another level entirely of transgression compared to threating violence, but it would create a standard under which today’s GOP could not survive.

(Actually, to be accurate, Greene was not removed from committee assignments simply because she threated violence, that was the cherry on the top.  As NPR described it, the reason was that she had a “history of trafficking in racism, anti-Semitism and baseless conspiracy theories, along with her support for online comments encouraging violence against Democratic officials prior to taking office.”)

And so, last Friday came this story from Axios about Republicans being wary about McCarthy's plan to boot.  It’s not only that there were reports of GOP hesitancy, but three members are already going on record to say so.  And with Republicans only able to lose four votes, that’s known among political scientists as a Big Problem.

• "I’m not going to support it,” Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) told Axios, noting Republicans opposed such moves from the Democratic majority. "I try to be consistent in my values … regardless of who’s in charge."

• Rep. David Valadao (R-Calif.) told Axios, “I’ve never been a fan of that. Members are elected by their districts. ... To throw them off just seems inappropriate.”

• “I don't think tit for tat is necessary here," said Rep. Andy Barr (R-Ky.). "We should be better than what the Democrats were." He does think, however, that McCarthy's rationale for the Intelligence Committee may be warranted.

If three Republicans are already willing to go public about being against this antic, one can only imagine how many others among the remaining 219 GOP Congressman are against such a draconian, foolish idea.  So, for all the McCarthy desperate attempt at swaggering to look tough, his “promise” appears to be dead in the water.  And one wonders that if it becomes so clear that the action would lose (and perhaps lose badly), it seems very possible that McCarthy won’t bring it up and risk looking weak, losing his Big Public Issue.  The only reason I can see him actually going forward with it is because it’s one of the promises he made to get enough votes to become Speaker.  (If he even becomes Speaker…)  And if so, then just add that as one more Really Terrible Idea That the Public Will Hate from Republicans now that they’re in control of the House.  As David Valadao put it, “Members are elected by their districts…To throw them off just seems inappropriate.”

Unless, of course, you...well, have a history of trafficking in racism, anti-Semitism and baseless conspiracy theories, along with her support for online comments encouraging violence against Democratic officials prior to taking office.