From the "I Don't Have a Clue" Files

Every once in a while, as I’ve noted here, I get totally bewildered about things and don’t even begin to have a clue what people are doing.  The only “good thing” about that being the case with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is that I don’t think I’m alone with that there.

There are three particular “I don’t have a clue” aspects to this war that stand out most notably for me – at least today, I suspect more will follow.  Two of them occurred yesterday, one is foundational.

As for yesterday, I don’t have a clue why Russia is attacking the area where there is the biggest nuclear power plant in Europe.  I understand all the possible explanations given, including the most hopeful one that it’s not really to attack the plant, but they want to control it in order control Ukraine’s power grid there.  But that still doesn’t answer why attack the area with largest nuclear power plant in Europe, since the risk is so massive as to be generationally destructive, and one can knock out the power grid in many other ways, all of them world’s safter.  And it doesn’t answer the biggest question mark – if there’s an accident, which in the middle of a war is always possible and on the edge of likely, the plant is reasonably close to Russia, and if the wind blows east, the nuclear fallout will blow across to border into Russia.  I don’t understand what they’re thinking.

There was also a report yesterday that Russia is considering public executions in Ukraine, and I don’t have a clue why they would even consider that.  I’m certain that (assuming the report is true) the reasoning would be to Strike Terror in the hearts and minds of the Ukrainians.  But that’s unsupportable.  First, if you kill someone privately or publicly, they probably don’t care all that much either way because, well, they’re going to be dead all the same.  But second, if you’re an invading army and publicly execute people – especially if they’re your country’s leaders, but whoever they are – you aren’t going to Strike Terror in people, you are going to horrify and outrage them and make them fight you all the harder, particularly since Ukrainians are known as among the greatest fighters in the world.  But let’s say Russia really isn’t actually planning to have public executions, but just wanted to leak the story to Strike Terror – it’s the same thing, it won’t Strike Terror, just hearing the story probably outrage Ukrainians to the deepest reaches of their soul.  So, again, I don’t understand what they’re thinking.

And finally, as for the foundational issue, I don’t have a clue what Russia wants the outcome of this to be.  There seem to be two possibilities, assuming they “win.”   The first is that Russia occupies the country, which they’ll have to do for 20-30 years or more.  And the second is that they don’t occupy, but establish a puppet government.  Well, the first is a disaster, it’s a massive economic drain on a country, something Russia cannot afford – most-especially now – and Russia has said they don’t intend to occupy Ukraine. And the second option leaves a Russian-preferred government in charge with no support that would be overthrown by the people starting about eight minutes after its installed and finished within a week or two.  So, I don’t begin to understand what Russia thinks the outcome of this will be.

And I don’t appear to be alone in all this.  Which makes me think the likely end result may possibly be that Russians themselves don’t know either and may decide the outcome for Putin, in a way he doesn’t like.  Whether that’s a week from now or a year from now, and after more massive violence and death or not, I don’t know.  But it just doesn’t seem like this ends well for most anyone there – but, oddly, mostly Putin.

But I don't have a clue.

There's only one thing I do feel fairly confident about.  As a friend said, Vladimir Putin threw away in one week everything he gained in four years from Trump.  He had split the U.S. and got much of the Republican Party to follow Trump’s lead and think he’s a strong, genius leader.  But that’s gone.  The U.S. is now united at least against him, and the idea of thinking Putin is a great, brilliant leader is now gone, an anathema to almost all Americans.

One week.  All gone.  Forever.