Election Night

The election results last night in four states have little about them from which anything specific and definitive can be drawn for the 2024 presidential election.  They were state races and issue races – and are a year ahead of next year’s race.

However, I think some perspectives can be attached to them.

In Kentucky, the Democrat Andy Beshear won re-election for governor.  He was the sitting governor, and was popular, so it is not surprising that he won.  However, as of last week, polls showed the race tied 50-50 with his Republican opponent, who heavily supported an abortion limit.  And Kentucky is a very Republican state, which Trump won by 26 points.  As of the time of writing (9 PM in Los Angeles, midnight in the East), with 95% of the vote in, Democratic Gov. Beshear is ahead by six points.  So, a Democrat had a 32 turnaround from Trump’s 2020 win, and abortion limits took a hit.

In Ohio, which is a Red state, had a ballot measure to allow the right to abortion.  The wording on the ballot, pushed through by anti-abortion forces, did not accurately state what the law would be and made it seem far more problematic and controversial (saying that the law would allow an abortion at any time).  The abortion rights bill passed handily, by a margin of 56-44, at the time of writing.  So, yet again this year, abortion limits took a hit.

Going into the race, Virginia had an interesting situation.  Democrats controlled the Senate, but by a close margin.  And Republicans controlled the House of Delegates, also by a close margin.  Since Republicans hold the governorship, their hope has been to flip the Senate and gain control of all three bases.  However, Democrats have had the Senate called for them and maintained control.  And Republicans are actually at risk of losing control of the House of Delegates. To be clear, it’s close enough that the House Delegates could end up tied. In that case, though, the two parties would share control -- meaning Republicans would lose their current control of the House.  That said, at the time of writing, both the New York Times and A.P. have called the 100-seat House of Delegates for Democrats 51-42, over 90% of the vote counted. 

(These were also problematic results for Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin who has been dancing around about maybe, possibly, perhaps, kind of considering getting into the GOP presidential race.  A good portion of his decision has been based on controlling both houses of the Virginia legislature, showing his strength and being able to push through any bills he wanted, including and most notably an abortion limit.  Not only did that not happen, Republicans lost control of both houses, which changes his hinting completely.)

The fourth state with a race was Mississippi.  And there, the sitting governor is leading and expected to win.  But...Mississippi is a very Red state.  Trump won in 2020 by almost 17 points.  And "expected” to win is not guaranteed.  The margin has been closing all night, and if Republican Gov. Reeves can’t reach 50%, there will be a run-off.  While it seems likely that he will win, the fact that the race is even in doubt in Mississippi speaks problematically for Republicans.

The overall point here is that it was a pretty good night for Democrats.  And a very good night for abortion rights.  Again, that has next to no substantial meaning on the presidential race next year.  Or any race.  But – it gives an indication, again, that abortion rights is a major issue for Democrats and very problematic for Republicans, and all the more now with Christo-fascist Mike Johnson as Speaker of the House.  And shows that even in Red states, in fact very Red states, Democrats can do respectably well and even win -- which requires Republicans to spend resources there they weren't planning to.

What will happen next year?  Who knows?  But it’s always preferable to go into an election year with wins and positives in your pocket.