Don Tariffic
On Friday, the Supreme Court handed Trump an easy off-ramp for the disastrous tariff mess he'd gotten himself into that has helped raise prices and which 64% the American public hates. Instead, though, Trump had major meltdown and helped solidify Democrats' chances of an election tsunami in the Mid-Terms.
In his meltdown, Trump seemed to attack almost everyone he could think of, even to the point of suggesting they were traitors. And worse, he included the six Supreme Court justices in his rant, never a great thing to do when you have three years left in office. And maybe even worse than that (which is saying a lot), he said that he had the right to destroy the United States.
Yes, really.
This is a good time to note that, no, this wasn't just the ravings of an infantile, angry man pouting that he didn't get his way, but a reminder that many psychologists have long written (as far back as 2017) that Trump is a "malignant narcissist," which is different from just your garden-variety narcissist. And that, as I wrote here six years ago (quoting Rhonda Freeman, PhD,), one of the symptoms of malignant narcissism is a willingness to burn down everything around you if you don't get your way. As she wrote in Psychology Today, "A person with malignant narcissism has the potential to destroy families, communities, nations, and work environments."
And of course, psychologists have also long-written about how Trump has dementia, which is degenerative. And that seemed on display in his rant, as well.
But I think that the Court's ruling and Trump meltdown are a much bigger problem for him (and the MAGOP in Congress) than is being discussed -- which is saying a lot because it’s being discussed as being a huge problem.
Consider:
Now that his tariffs have been declared unconstitutional, people will expect their refund that Trump promised. Especially since Trump promised it without expecting the tariffs to be declared illegal.
But if Americans do get their refund, it will hurt the vaunted “trade deficit” benefit that Trump is bragging about, claiming just last week that he has cut the trade deficit by an astounding 78%. (Even though it’s only been cut by .0002%, according to financial expert Ron Insana.)
But if Americans don’t get their refund -- and it seems improbable that they will, at least for a very long time, since Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent (whose job it would be to send the refunds) said on Friday, with a smirk, that no one was likely to get a refund -- the public will not only be pissed off, but even more so than before. (After all, even before this ruling, it's doubtful they were ever going to get that Trump-promised refund, but most people might have forgotten about it. However, with SCOTUS declaring the tariffs illegal, virtually no one is now going to forget it. Indeed, Gov. J.B. Pritzker of Illinois already has sent Trump an invoice for $8.6 billion for the residents of his state.
But if Trump does decide to send refund checks, that too will cause a big problem for him because he's said that the tariffs brought in about $850 billion -- when, in fact, all experts say that, at most, it's closer to $200 billion. So, he'll be $650 billion short of what he's said he would have in order to return.
But if Trump tries some other way to get his beloved tariffs (which he already has, saying that he was going to raise tariffs 10% -- and then upped it even more to 15%!), it will just remind the public a) that his previous tariffs which he had made his core issue was unconstitutional and taxed them illegally, and b) that he’s trying something new that is essentially the same thing.
But if Trump backs down and doesn’t try some other way to get tariffs, it will make all his shouting about “Independence Day!!!” and how "tariffs" are his favorite word look ludicrous and weak.
But if Trump does go ahead and try some other way with these new tariffs, it will get challenged in court again, and keep this unconstitutional issues as an illegal tax in the news, and create instability and uncertainty in the business community.
And he can’t go to Congress to get the tariffs legally, because as enabling as MAGOPs are in Congress, he will never get a majority to vote for raising taxes during an election year. Especially an election year when MAGOPs likely see themselves being swamped.
And whatever Trump does…or even if he does nothing…prices are likely to remain high, not just because of inflation (which reports last week showed it rose), but also because many of these prices raised by tariffs are locked in for the time being -- and furthermore because as Trump keeps trying to raise the tariffs, causing uncertainty, businesses won’t lower their prices until they know what’s going on. And so, meanwhile, the public will wonder why prices are still high even without the illegal tariffs.
The short version is: I think it’s a huge mess for Trump -- and it's a mess he created and has made even worse.
And the thing is, as I mentioned at the start...Trump was given a graceful, easy exit ramp by the Supreme Court. And being Trump, he didn't take it. He could have had his obligatory, crazy meltdown and slammed the Supreme Court like he did, but said, he's being blocked by the court, he can't impose tariffs, and it's all their fault. And backed away, with the SCOTUS gift lifeline. But, no, he's Trump, so he doubled-down and said he's going to try all these other options and cause chaos. Because he's Trump. Because he's incapable of saying he lost and because he actually, really, really, really loves tariffs. And because he is a malignant narcissist and has dementia (which is degenerative).
And the MAGOPs in Congress who enable him are caught in this Trump tariff vortex. Because they support him in everything, and so going into the Mid-Terms there will be tariffs, high prices, business uncertainty, and no refunds.
But here's the core trouble for Trump:
The Supreme Court ruled that the tariffs were illegal, which means the tax money collected from Americans was illegal. Which means it must be returned. You don't get to keep money you got by illegal means. No one does. You have to return it.
If Trump wants to try to find another way to impose tariff taxes that it turns out he can do legally, that's another matter entirely. But even if so (and it's a very big "if"), money collected illegally has to be returned, no matter how difficult that may be. Has to. And it seems unlikely that it will be refunded, especially since the Treasury Secretary has said it won't be. Which is the core trouble for Trump.
All the other troubles above for Trump are just piling on that.
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