Crisis Hotline
A friend wrote to say, “I'm not sure the Epstein scandal is actually a crisis for Trump; the Republican Congress clearly isn't going to take action against him and this only becomes a crisis if it adversely affects the 2026 mid-terms, and that remains to be seen.”
His reasons were that it's unlikely to pose a legal risk for Trump. And there’s no political risk, since Trump really isn’t running for President again. And even if Democrats win the House and impeach him, Trump won’t be convicted. And finally, it would be hard for Democrats to maintain this as an issue until next November, and it could even backfire on them if they try.
My first thought was that if my friend worked in the White House, they’d love him so much because he’d be the only one there who didn’t think it was a crisis. That doesn’t mean he’d be wrong – just alone. That said, yes, I do think he is very wrong.
To be clear, my friend is very liberal. And very smart. The problem is that he tends to think very rationally. And while normally that’s a great way to fly, I keep telling him that it has no place at all in trying to analyze Trump, as well as the MAGA base. It will only drag him down into an empty Black Hole in Hell.
This is absolutely a major crisis for Trump. It's not about whether a Democratic Congress will take action or if he's at any legal risk. (He could be, but I doubt it, but the scandal is not about that). It's that it risks shredding support from his base. And that risks MAGOPs in Congress trying to separate themselves from him.
The Epstein files are of massive concern to his base. It’s hard to overstate how much. This is a conspiracy that Trump, Kash Patel, and others have pushed his base to believe for years -- that Democrats are at the heart of child trafficking. And how we must have the files. Far-right podcasters have been yelling about this for years. The most popular right-wing podcaster Joe Rogan has been talking about it for years. Patel and his FBI deputy Dan Bongino have been crying about this for many years on their own podcasts. And now Patel and Bongino, who have moved from podcasts to being in the highest positions of police authority in the nation, in position to act on their rants, are telling their base, "Nope, nothing to see here, folks, move on." And this is the important point: conspiracy theorists do not "move on." They always have something to point at that supports the conspiracy. If there turned out to be no evidence of anything in the files, conspiratorialists will say that that is a conspiracy. It’s what they do, they’re conspiracy theorists. It’s what they eat and breathe and o. And now they are saying "I feel lied to by Trump."
Top far-right podcaster Joe Rogan said that specifically. And it's not like half the base has to cut ties from Trump if they feel deceived. If only 3-4% says, "I won't vote for Republicans who don't demand the files are released," that turns a 50-50 race into a 54-46 landslide. Moreover, a lot of the MAGOP base doesn't care about politics, and don't usually vote, unless Trump is on the ballot -- and Trump won't be on the ballot in the Mid-Terms!! Polls show that Democrats are highly motivated for 2026. The MAGOP party needs to drive enthusiasm in the Mid-Terms which are normally low. Add a loss of just 3-4% on top of that low motivation, and it risks being disastrous for the party.
The fact that the voting is still 14 months away (with early voting) may "officially" mean it "remains to be seen." But if your party's motivation is down, and your base is getting stripped away feeling lied to -- on top of higher prices, jobs and tariffs – and you’ve seen votes slip away in Special Elections by 10-20 points, even in deep red districts, then you have to start shoring that up NOW. But they're not. And we're seeing that NOW.
Can Trump turn that around? In Theoretical Land, sure. But not when Trump is most certainly named throughout the Epstein files, and when he won’t push to have them released, and not when he's surrounded by unqualified incompetents who can't help him, has a 37% approval -- and has dementia which is degenerative.
No, it's unlikely to pose a legal risk. And no, Trump won’t get convicted from an impeachment. And no, Trump isn’t running for re-election. And yes, the Mid-Terms are a long ways off. But –
The problem for Trump is that the scandal is not about any of that. It's about losing some of Trump’s most loyal base, losing control of Congress (which is a huge matter), losing his chance to pass his most fascist agenda, losing support of his party members in Congress seeing his weakness, and being a lame duck as other MAGOPs vie for party leadership. And Trump can't bear losing. So, put all that losing together, and it’s a major crisis for Trump.
And the risk of losing its base and control of Congress – and the White House in 2028 – is a major crisis for the MAGOP party.
And the thing is -- it's not Democrats keeping focus on this, it's the conspiracy MAGA base who holds on to their conspiracies forever. And feel lied to. And will continue feeling outraged by Trump never releasing the files. They are who have been pushing this from the first. They are the one screaming to release the files “to own the libs.” But Trump will never release the files. It will have to be wrenched from him by a bulldozer.
And while I don't think Democrats will take control of the Senate, I don't discount it.
Not just from the Epstein files, but from a great deal more. After all, as much of a crisis as the files are to Trump and the MAGOP, they’re not the issue on which the election will turn. It’s that polls show people hate the Trump/MAGOP budget bill, hate Trump's handling of inflation (their overwhelming #1 issue) by a net negative 25 points, indeed hate the handling of all Trump’s policies – including his signature issue of immigration, and hate his fascist actions putting the military in U.S. cities, which will only increase as he promises to expand that…all the while watching Trump’s uncomfortable actions as his dementia, which is degenerative, worsens. And all of this starts with him at an approval of only a disastrous 37%. Surrounded by no one competent or qualified to help him.
When that’s your starting point, you can't afford to lose any of your most deeply loyal base. And Trump and the MAGOP are highly risking that.
So, no, the Epstein files are not the most important problem for Trump – and for MAGOPs. But they are the foundation on which all the bigger problems sit. And that’s why having to focus on them and outraging their own base because of them is most definitely a crisis for Trump. And the MAGOP.
So, when looking at the Epstein files, one has to quit thinking rationally. This is about Trump and the MAGA conspiracy core base.
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